BRICS: Reshaping the Global Economic and Political Order.

M A Hossain, 

The BRICS term refers to a group of five nations, namely Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. The first summit of this alliance in 2009 sparked debates on its geopolitical and geo-economic significance. The political pundits view it as a new political world order and a shift in power from the 'Global North' to the 'Global South'. The member nations account for almost half of the world's population and reports suggest that their combined Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is 31.5%, surpassing the G7's contribution of 30.7%.  Despite their differences in political, economic, and cultural spares, BRICS countries have launched the New Development Bank with seed money of $50 billion to boost their greater integration and strengthen their position in the international arena.

Initially, BRICS was recognized as a forward-thinking economic forum, but its focus shifted after the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The forum is now pointing out critical matters such as trade, finance, climate change, and energy security, and its impact extends to shaping the global economic landscape. As a result, it is going to challenge the dominance of Western-backed the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The magic bone for BRICS to bring them together is its diversity. Each member country brings a unique set of economic and political landscapes to the forum, which has created a rich tapestry of interests and perspectives. For example, Brazil is a major agricultural exporter, while Russia is a leading energy exporter. India is an emerging economic power which has a large and growing middle class, while China is a global economic and manufacturing superpower. South Africa, meanwhile, is a leading player in the mining industry. This diversity has strengthened BRICS to explore its resources and expertise to pursue the shared challenges of its own development path.

BRICS is also an outcome of challenging the monopoly and questioning the legitimacy of existing West-backed monetary Institutions and frameworks.  The IMF and World Bank were established after World War II to dominate global trade and market access by the West. These Institutions are facing criticism globally. It works as an expansion tool for the 'Global North' by considering political concerns rather than an acute crisis for loan facilities. Even nowadays, they use democracy and Human Rights as a fig leaf to masquerade the Western political agenda. However, BRICS has sought to establish new trading relationships and agreements outside the Western-dominated system, which will curtail the advantages of the West's so long-enjoyed trade agreements and market access. BRICS has the potential to help poorer countries as it does not pursue any political agenda nor indirectly manipulate and control local economics. Moreover, NDB and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank(AIIB) are more reflective of their priorities to represent the interests of emerging economies.

Western Monopoly in geopolitics, the recently Russia-Ukraine war has exposed the necessity of massive expansion in BRICS. The success of BRICS has made other economic giants like Argentina, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, and Mexico interested to invest in this bloc. Recently, some Western countries are going through a tremendous economic crisis. Their economic growth is declining, and social turmoil is increasing. In this critical juncture, the 'Global South' has taken a step to introduce an alternative to the dollar-based trading system. China and Brazil agreed to cross-border trade with local currency without the dollar system. It is more likely that some Latin countries are going to follow the local currency system for cross-border trade. ASEAN nations have called for an alternative to dollar-based trading at finance ministers' and central bank governors' summits in Indonesia. Russia-India is trading with local currency and India-Bangladesh is in process. No doubt, this trend was neither the first nor it will be the last.

BRICS has significant potential for economic growth and innovation. Their collective strengths and investments in emerging technologies like artificial Intelligence, blockchain and renewable energy could make a major driving force for the global economy and innovation in the coming days. This would require greater investment in education, research, and development as well as greater cooperation between member countries to share knowledge and expertise. BRICS also has significant potential for growth and influence. It could lead to promoting sustainable development and climate change. It could help to drive the transition to a more sustainable and equitable global economy.

In addition, BRICS countries are asserting themselves on the global political stage. This is evident in areas such as climate change, International negotiations, peacekeeping, and conflict resolution efforts where member countries have emerged as key players. This increased assertiveness challenges the traditional role of Western power as the dominant actor in global politics. BRICS countries are also challenging the West's cultural dominance. Now, BRICS is changing the cultural landscape, which is becoming more diverse and pluralistic.  Defying the Western culture in music, film and literature, BRICS countries are producing their own distinctive styles and voices.

At the outset, the member countries of BRICS are facing some challenges too. There is a concern about political tension, particularly between India and China. The shifting of global political landscapes like protectionism, populism, and nationalism are threatening the core principles of free trade and globalisation which will underpin the BRICS's success. Another challenge is the willingness to join this organisation. The increase in member states will make it very difficult to maintain the current growth rate. At the same time, economic and political freedom has to be ensured in new member states.

It is important to note that BRICS countries are not seeking to replace the West, rather they are seeking greater representation and influence in global affairs. BRICS demands a more equitable and inclusive global economic and political system. Let the West recognise the BRICS as an opportunity for greater cooperation and collaboration between different regions and cultures.

M A Hossain, political and defence analyst based in Bangladesh. 

Email:writetomahossain@gmail.com

This article published at :

1. Modern Diplomacy : EU:23 Apr23

2. Asian Age, BD:09May23

3. infobrics.org: 19May23

The political instability in Nepal and its geopolitical implications.

M A Hossain,

Nepal is a small, landlocked country by two giant powers, China and India in South Asia.  It is renowned for its diverse culture, Himalayan mountains and historical landmarks.  However, the country has been scuffling with political instability since its multi-party democracy installed. Nepal has come across a political history of coups, unrest, and changes in government.  In 1990, the country adopted a new constitution and King Birendra ceded power to the democratic government, But that change did not bring political stability where frequent changes in government and a lack of political consensus remains De ja vu. Nepal's current political situation is marked by a constitutional crisis, corruption, and political polarization, all of which have significant geopolitical implications.

Nepal adopted a new constitution in 2015, and it created a constitutional crisis, leading to protest and a blocked along the Nepal-India border. The Madhesi community in the Southern Plains claimed that the new constitution was discriminatory, divisive, and controversial.  Corruption is another major factor contributing to political instability in Nepal.  It is pervasive in Nepali polities and has rusted public trust in government institutions which challenging to build political consensus.

Political polarization is also a significant factor contributing to political instability in Nepal. The deep divide between left-wing and right -wing political forces has made it difficult to build consensus.  That causes frequent changes in the government.  In recent years, Nepal has experienced multiple changes in government due to internal political conflicts, legal challenges, and prolonged political crises. For instance, in December 2020, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli dissolved Parliament and called for a new election, leading to protest and a prolonged political crisis. Nepal's Supreme Court intervened and reinstated the dissolved parliament in May 2021.

In 2023, lawmakers in Nepal have elected a new President amid escalating political instability in the Himalayan nation. The incumbent coalition government, which has succeeded power for only a few months back, is proving to be fragile.  Ram Chandra Poudel, a former parliament speaker and senior leader of the opposition Nepali Congress Party, elected as the new President, defeating his sole rival, Subhash Chandra Nembang.

This presidential election has triggered a dispute among the ruling coalition partners. Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, who assumed office in December 2022, supported Poudel, leading to a rift with the Communist Party of Nepal(UML), which supported its candidate, Nembang.  This division ultimately resulted in the CPN withdrawing from the coalition, and Dahal losing the backing of three crucial political parties that were initially part of his government's composition.

Nepal's contribution to India's internal security framework warrants particular acknowledgement. It also acts as a safe haven for drug cartels, hawala agents, and human trafficking syndicates.  Another issue of internal security pertains to the connection or association between Maoist factions operating in both India and Nepal. The Communist Party of India (Maoist) envisions a "red corridor" stretching from Nepal's southern border, which abuts the Terai region of Uttar Pradesh, to the Western Ghats tri-junction of Kerala, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu.

China aspires to establish enduring physical connections between the two nations, capable of persisting beyond shifts in governance in Kathmandu. The prospect of reestablishing relations with a leader who previously condemned India as an "expansionist" entity and the US as an "imperialist power" will inevitably disappoint both New Delhi and Washington.

Nepal's political instability has significant geopolitical implications for the region. Being a buffer state between India and China, any instability in Nepal could affect its relations with its neighboring countries. India is Nepal's largest trading partner, and the two countries share deep cultural and historical ties. China, on the other hand, has been increasing its influence in Nepal through infrastructure investments and other projects. Nepal's strategic location between two of the world's most populous countries contributes its geopolitical importance.

The instability in Nepal may have an impact on the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), of which Nepal is a member state. The political instability also has an impact on foreign aid and investment, which the country heavily relies on. Already, political instability has resulted in significant economic and social consequences, including negatively impacting its heavily reliant tourism industry. The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated the country's economic and development woes such as poverty, inequality, and infrastructure deficits.

The historiography of political instability in Nepal has been fraught with numerous attempts to combat it, yet they have been largely ineffective due to their failure to address the fundamental underpinnings of the issue. The conundrum of instability persists, casting a shadow over the prospects for Nepal's future.  One potential solution to promote political consensus among Nepali political parties could be achieved through dialogue and compromise among political parties.

M A Hossain, political and defense analyst based in Bangladesh.

Email: writetomahossain@gmail.com

   

This article published at :

1. South Asia Journal, NJ,USA:03Apr23

2. The Asian Age, BD: 16 Oct 23