BRICS membership : Boon or bane for Bangladesh.

M A Hossain, 

Bangladesh has recently submitted its application to join BRICS, a consortium comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. BRICS serves as a forum for emerging economics to address their concerns and facilitate cooperation within a structured framework. The BRICS countries currently have a population of 3.42 billion, accounting for 42% of the world's population. In 2021, this bloc contributed 31.5% of the global GDP, amounting to $26.03 trillion, and also accounted for 18% of global trade. Consequently, it represents an influential bloc of emerging economics that focus on economic cooperation and development. While there may not be immediate benefits due to it not being a trade bloc, BRICS membership promises substantial long-term advantages for Bangladesh but there are challenges to navigate.

Over the past few decades, the developing world has made remarkable strides and the figure of developing nations increased significantly.  Subsequently, the BRICS initiative aims to unite all developing nations under a framework to attain socio-economic progress. The dominance of the dollar-based monetary system has prompted to explore alternative options, resulting in countries like Saudi Arabia, Iran, Argentina, United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Algeria, Egypt, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Indonesia, and Venezuela have expressed their desire to join the bloc.

Disappointments, undue conditions even ambitious, and the dollar-based monetary system of the advanced developing countries has driven other nations to establish alternative multilateral banks to meet their financial needs. Seizing this opportunity, BRICS established two such multilateral lending agencies, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) initiated by China and operational since January 2016 in Beijing and the New Development Bank (NDB) established by BRICS in 2015 and headquartered in Shanghai. These two banks serve as alternative multilateral banks to the Bretton Woods Institution, the World Bank (WB) and International Monetary Fund (IMF). Bangladesh became a member of both the banks.

The total capital of both the banks is $100 billion.  AIIB has now 103 members across the world. Last 5 years, AIIB and NDB have approved $22.02 billion and $30 billion respectively for physical infrastructure development, improve connectivity, and integration among the member states. Bangladesh certainly would be considered as an important member of BRICS because of its test book example of spectacular economic development. AIIB has already approved $2.40 billion for 13 projects and has proposed of $1.73 billion for four more projects in Bangladesh.

Bangladesh's decision to join BRICS comes at a very crucial time as the international economy is crippling mostly because of COVID-19 and western sanctions centering Russia-Ukraine conflict.  The sanctions are exacerbating the sufferings of every country in the world. The Western restrictions are impeding countries from purchasing industrial raw materials, fuel, fertilizer even food grains. The Western powers use the dollar-based monetary system as a punitive tool against their rivals. Recently, the US Federal Reserve, the country’s Central Bank, has aggressively increased interest rate. This has exerted tremendous pressure on the currencies of many Global South nations. Such action has led to a global cost-of- living crisis that has driven millions of people into destitution and economic hardship.

BRICS member countries have long discussed introducing a common currency and the establishment of their own reserves. If it becomes effective, this would reduce dependence on the dollar. Dilma Rousseff, the NDB's new chief, recently announced that the bank is gradually distancing itself from the US dollar. She pledged that at least 30% of loans would be provided in the local currencies of member states. It would help to avoid the negative impact of exchange rate fluctuations of dollar.

Membership in BRICS would grant access to additional external sources to get funds on easier terms and conditions, and strengthen their negotiation position. It would also help Bangladesh to diversify its foreign relations.  Bangladesh will be able to take advantage of this if an alternative currency or an alternative trade system is introduced in the future among the BRICS countries.  Moreover, BRICS investment in infrastructure, technology, and education would drive improvements in productivity, competitiveness, and job creation.  Bangladesh would have the opportunity to be more proactive in global issues and contribute to setting agendas. It would enhance bilateral trade and foreign investment in Bangladesh.

The US and EU are two major trade partners for Bangladesh.  So, after joining the alliance, Bangladesh may come under pressure from the west. A significant challenge for Bangladesh would be to avoid financing any disputed, less-viable, and environmentally detrimental projects. The relationships among member states are very complicated. Bangladesh, as a neighboring country, has to face the challenges on diplomatic relations with India and China.

The prospect of Bangladesh joining BRICS holds immense promises. Bangladesh would be significantly benefited by infrastructure development, market expansion, Technological advancements and diplomatic influence. So, Bangladesh needs to be more cautious on political and diplomatic relations among the BRICS members. Upholding the non-aligned  principle of our foreign policy "friendship to all, malice to none" should be the only guiding force to move forward with BRICS nations.

M A Hossain, political and defense analyst based in Bangladesh. 

Email : writetomahossain@gmail.com

This article published at ;

1. The Daily Observer, BD:27 June 23

2. Modern Diplomacy :27 June 23

3. The Asian Age, BD: 17 July 23

The Bay of Bengal: Geostrategic Significance and Contest for Influence

Del H Khan & M A Hossain, 

The Bay of Bengal possesses significant geostrategic importance, given its function as a crucial maritime gateway, abundant energy resources, and vital shipping lanes. Its strategic location and diverse ecosystems necessitate the preservation of natural habitats and the promotion of sustainable development. Understanding these factors, it becomes imperative to explore the strategic interests of global actors in the Bay of Bengal and analyze the potential consequences for regional stability and cooperation.

The United States seeks to expand its presence in the Indo-Pacific. They believe that having a naval base in the Bay of Bengal will enhance its power projection capabilities and maintain deterrence. China, on the other hand, wants to establish a naval base to solidify its military presence in the region and gains a strategic foothold in the Indian Ocean. India, begin another most influential regional power in the area, desires to protect its interests and deter potential threats.  Japan also has vested interests in the Bay of Bengal to establish a naval base as a way to project power and safeguard its interests.

India, as the largest country bordering the Bay of Bengal, holds crucial strategic interests. Safeguarding the shipping lanes in the region is vital for India's trade and economic prosperity. Additionally, protecting the oil and gas reserves in the bay ensures energy security, a critical aspect of India's development. Furthermore, countering the spread of terrorism is a shared concern among global actors, as stability in the Bay of Bengal is essential for regional security.

India's efforts to secure its interests in the Bay of Bengal are driven by factors such as the growing importance of the Bay of Bengal, the rise of China, and the need for regional cooperation. Strengthening its naval presence, developing maritime infrastructure, engaging with other littoral states, and promoting regional economic integration are among the initiatives that India is emphasizing to secure its interests in the Bay of Bengal.

China, a rising power, has expanded its economic and military presence in the Bay of Bengal for several reasons. Acquiring access to the region's resources, particularly its oil and gas reserves, is of great significance to China's growing energy demands. Moreover, extending its influence into the Indian Ocean aligns with China's broader geopolitical aspirations.

The United States is securing its interests in the Bay of Bengal and the littoral countries through means such as military cooperation, economic engagement, and diplomacy. The U.S. is formulating her steps to counter China's growing influence in the region by building stronger ties with regional allies, enhancing its own military presence, and working with other countries to promote a free and open Indo-Pacific.

Japan, a major economic power, shares similar interests in the Bay of Bengal. Safeguarding the shipping lanes, protecting energy interests, and preventing terrorism align with Japan's objectives in ensuring economic stability and national security. Japan is actively engaging Herself for its interests in the Bay of Bengal through initiatives such as building up its naval presence, providing security assistance, promoting economic cooperation, and engaging in diplomacy.

Russia, as a major regional power, also recognizes the strategic importance of the Bay of Bengal. Securing the shipping lanes and protecting energy interests are of significant interest to Russia, as they contribute to maintaining its economic ties and regional influence. Russia is securing its interests in the Bay of Bengal through means such as military cooperation, economic cooperation, and diplomacy. Russia is also working to counter the influence of other major powers in the region.

Global actors take various strategic initiatives against Bangladesh through which they can exert influence. Trade and investment play a crucial role in strengthening economic ties and promoting growth. By engaging in trade and investing in Bangladesh's economy, these actors can enhance their economic interests while contributing to Bangladesh's development. Development assistance is another avenue through which global actors can exert influence. By providing support for infrastructure development, education, and healthcare, they can bolster Bangladesh's capabilities and enhance its socio-economic well-being.

Furthermore, security cooperation is an essential aspect of engaging with Bangladesh. Collaborating with Bangladesh on security issues, particularly in countering terrorism and maintaining regional stability, is in the mutual interest of global actors. They can mitigate security threats and promote peace in the region through concerted efforts. 

Military assistance has also played a role, with the United States, China, and India offering support to enhance Bangladesh's military capabilities. While this assistance aims to strengthen Bangladesh's resistance against external threats, it can also exert pressure on the country to subdue the interests of its assisting nations.

Diplomacy has been another avenue employed by these global actors. Engaging in diplomatic efforts allows them to cultivate relationships with the Bangladeshi government, promote shared interests, and resolve disputes. Nevertheless, diplomatic engagement may also lead to attempts to influence Bangladesh's decision-making in a manner that may not necessarily align with its own best interests.

Furthermore, other global players, including the European Union and Gulf states, are also taking an interest in Bangladesh seriously. The EU, as Bangladesh's largest trading partner, has significantly contributed to the country's development through extensive trade and assistance. Gulf states, on the other hand, have emerged as prominent investors in Bangladesh and have previously provided military aid.

In the realm of the Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh stands to reap numerous benefits. This body of water serves as a significant shipping route and houses substantial reserves of oil and gas. Bangladesh can capitalize on these resources by bolstering its ports, enhancing its shipping industry, and further developing its oil and gas sector. Moreover, the Bay of Bengal boasts stunning beaches and islands that hold great potential for tourism. Bangladesh can foster tourism growth by promoting this natural beauty and investing in the necessary infrastructure. Furthermore, the Bay of Bengal offers abundant fishing grounds, which Bangladesh can tap into by strengthening its fisheries sector. Additionally, this relatively unexplored body of water holds tremendous possibilities for marine research. 

Bangladesh must implement strategic measures to protect its interests in the Bay of Bengal. Firstly, it should focus on promoting economic development to strengthen its economy and increase its bargaining power. This involves attracting foreign investment, improving infrastructure, and cultivating a skilled workforce. Secondly, building a strong military is necessary to deter aggression and safeguard its interests.  Bangladesh should also engage in multilateral diplomacy, actively participating in regional organizations like the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) and Indian Ocean Rim Association for Regional Cooperation (IOR-ARC) to advance its diplomatic objectives. Furthermore, maintaining balance relations with major global actors while avoiding taking sides in conflicts is crucial to prevent entanglement and foster cooperation.

By effectively harnessing the opportunities presented by the Bay of Bengal and proactively addressing the contest for influence in the region, Bangladesh can secure a prosperous and secure future. These measures will enable Bangladesh to assume a leading role in shaping the trajectory of the Bay of Bengal while safeguarding its own interests.

Del H Khan, is a global affairs analyst and author of several award-winning and bestselling books. 

M A Hossain, is a political and defense analyst based in Bangladesh. 

This article published at :

1. The Daily Observer, BD: 25 June 23

2. The Daily Asian Age, BD: 27 June 23

3. South Asia Journal, NJ,USA :25 June 23

Russia-Ukraine war : The Nova Kakhovka Dam Destruction.

M A Hossain,

Ever since the initiation of Russia's conflict against Ukraine, the Nova Kakhovka Dam has been identified as a high-value target due to its strategic importance. It was seized by Russian forces during Moscow's invasion in February 2022 and has remained under their control since then. In the early morning of June 6, 2023, the Nova Kakhovka Dam, located on the Dnipro River, collapsed, resulting in one of the most significant human and environmental disasters since the war began in Ukraine. The dam, situated 30 km east of the city of Kherson, holds substantial implications for the broader war effort. Both Moscow and Kyiv have started accusing each other of what could arguably be considered a war crime. The destruction of the dam occurred just as Ukraine was preparing for a long-awaited counter-offensive in this strategic region.

Civil engineering experts, intelligence analysts, and officials have proposed three main theories regarding the cause of the collapse. Firstly, it is suggested that Russia might have blown up the dam. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, his government, and the country's military swiftly blamed Moscow for the dam's destruction. They pointed out that the dam had been under Russian control for the past year. So, it was an easy task for the Russian army to plant explosives accurately. People in the area reported hearing explosions at the time when the dam was presumed to be damaged. Moscow may have sought to impede Ukraine's anticipated counter-offensive. Moreover, the reservoir supplies cooling water to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Europe's largest nuclear power station, making its safety crucial.

Secondly, it is possible that artillery attacks by Ukraine caused sufficient damage to the dam. The Kremlin accused the Kyiv regime to deprive Crimea of water, which Russia annexed in 2014. It also brought the worst disaster to the Russian-controlled area, which had served as a launching pad for Russian military operations in the past. There were reports that Russian forces were caught off guard during the collapse. Thirdly, the destruction could be attributed to structural failure. The dam had already sustained some prior damage, as satellite images showed partial damage from June 1 and 2. Additionally, the water level had risen to a record 17.5 meters in April, which had poised a risk to the dam intact.

Now let us analyze the military tactical implications for both parties concerning the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka Dam. Firstly, Russia has historical precedents for such actions. In 1941, Stalin ordered to destroy of a dam across the Dnipro River to make the approach inaccessible for advancing German forces. Furthermore, during Napoleon's invasion in 1812, Russia implemented a "scorched earth policy," leaving the French Army with little sustenance and only the smoldering ruins of Moscow to capture.

By destroying the dam, Russia gains tactical advantages in this strategic region. The resulting flood has created obstacles that may slow down the long-awaited Ukrainian offensive, impeding the movement of troops, armored vehicles, and heavy machinery for the next few weeks. This has compelled the Ukrainian army to allocate resources to address the humanitarian emergency and reassess their counter-offensive plan. Undoubtedly, it is a morale victory for the Russian army and represents a significant strategic achievement. Maintaining the status quo on the occupied territories will place Ukraine under pressure, as it has been preparing for a counter-offensive with Western-trained troops and advanced weaponry. Ukraine is facing a 1,000 km line of Russian defense. If Russia could repulse the offensive maneuver of the Ukrainian army, then it will increase the political pressure on Ukraine and the West. This will be potentially leading to the consolidation of Russia's gains and Ukraine has to accept the ceasefire proposal of China. 

However, if Ukraine is indeed behind the destruction of the dam, it is crucial to consider the tactical advantages achieved by the Ukrainian forces. This act could potentially facilitate the relocation of the Ukrainian army to the north bank of the Dnipro River, enabling them to sustain a long-awaited counter-offensive. Ukrainian forces intent to recapture significant portions of territory in the south of the country. Kyiv's objective is to breach Russia's defense lines to the south of Zaporizhzhia, effectively splitting the territory and isolating Crimea, thereby achieving a major strategic victory. The resulting flood could also aid the Ukrainian side in dispersing Russian troops and retaking areas that connect Crimea to the eastern Donbas region.

While the details and background of the dam's destruction remain unclear, but the wider multifaceted short-term and long-term consequences are catastrophic. The destruction of the dam has disrupted the livelihoods of residents in Kherson, Dnepropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia. It has devastated the ecosystem, basic infrastructure, irrigation systems, and clean water facilities. Furthermore, it has impacted significantly on the country's energy security. The breach of the dam will have long-term effects on agricultural production and food security. A massive volume of freshwater will flow into the Black Sea, affecting the salinity of the Dnipro Delta. It is more likely that hundreds of thousands of people will become ecological refugees in southeastern Ukraine in the coming years. Additionally, it is worth noting that the Geneva Conventions explicitly prohibit attacks on dams, dikes, and nuclear power plants where this incident would comply with an act of war crime.

As the extent of the destruction becomes evident, the International Committee of the Red Cross has warned of a 'significant' threat to civilians. This act appears to be an attempt to inflict long-term damage on the viability of Ukraine as a functioning society and economy. The destruction of the Nova Kakhovka Dam has taken the conflict to new heights since the war's inception.

M A Hossain, political and defense analyst based in Bangladesh. 

Email: writetomahossain@gmail.com

This article published at :

1. The Geopolitics : 11June23

2. The Daily Observer: BD:12June23

3. The Asian Age, BD:13June23

4. The New Nation, BD: 14June23

5. The Jakarta Post, Indonesia: 15June23