The Strategic Significance of Strengthening US-Bangladesh Relations.

M A Hossain & Abdullah Al Mamun, 

In the tapestry of international relations, the partnership between Bangladesh and the United States bears the imprints of a multifaceted journey—a blend of challenges, resilience, and evolving collaborations. History narrates a narrative of support, critical junctures, and mutual aid defining their association. From the struggle for sovereignty to contemporary challenges, this relationship stands as a linchpin for Bangladesh's progress, teeming with opportunities and imperative support. The profound significance of fostering and fortifying this alliance would be an indispensable catalyst for Bangladesh's holistic development and global positioning.

History : A Beacon of Solidarity

The Bangladesh-USA relations since 1971 encapsulate a tale of challenges and resilience. Despite the Nixon-Kissinger administration's strategic stance against Bangladesh's sovereignty due to Cold War dynamics, the American populace, media, and key figures like George Harrison expressed overwhelming solidarity for Bangladesh. This stark contrast between political strategy and public support marked a pivotal phase during East Pakistan's turmoil, condemning Pakistani military actions. Notably, the US, while strategically supporting Pakistan, extended substantial humanitarian aid of $103 million to Bangladeshi refugees in India during the 1971 events. On April 4, 1972, the U.S. swiftly recognized Bangladesh's sovereignty, aiding its prompt entry into the United Nations.

Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman recognized the profound impact of a diplomatic relationship with the US, leading to President Gerald R. Ford's influential visit in 1974, catalyzing discussions on regional security, famine, and flood control. Mr. Rahman adeptly maintained ties with both the USSR and the US, pivotal players in the Cold War, initiating the Non-Aligned Movement for diplomatic reconciliation. His strategic diplomacy established Bangladesh's independence from the oppressive Pakistani regime. These actions showcased Rahman's skillful navigation of global alliances, leveraging relations for Bangladesh's autonomy and development.

Contemporary Collaborations: A Bridge to Progress

The alliance between the United States—a country that imports around 10% Ready-Made Garments from Bangladesh, for example— and Bangladesh has evolved significantly over the years. The U.S. has provided extensive support in crucial sectors, such as food security, agriculture, public health, education, disaster management, women's empowerment, governance, and human rights. The cumulative worth of this assistance reached an estimated USD 11.2 billion in 2022. Plus, bilateral trade flourished, exceeding $14.2 billion in 2022, with Bangladesh exporting goods worth $10.42 billion to the United States during the 2021-2022 fiscal year. Furthermore, the U.S. has already pledged $35 million over the next five years to support Bangladeshi farmers, particularly in mitigating climate-induced challenges and enhancing agricultural yields. This funding, channeled through USAID, will empower small-scale farmers in southern Bangladesh, providing guidance on climate-smart cultivation practices. The United States has also played a significant role in supporting Bangladesh in the global fight against COVID-19, providing vaccines and assistance to Rohingya refugees who fled to Bangladesh from Myanmar after receiving an array of inhuman torture in Myanmar. Additionally, the U.S. has supported Bangladesh's efforts in counterterrorism and regional stability through military training and cooperation and others.

Challenges: Navigating Current Complexities

In recent years, the Bangladesh-U.S. relationship has been struggling with tons of unavoidable and unprecedented challenges. Concerns raised by the United States include electoral irregularities, human rights violations, extrajudicial killings, political tensions, and Bangladesh's deepening ties with the Beijing-Moscow alliance, perceived as contrary to U.S. interests. These concerns have resulted in sanctions on select high-ranking law enforcement officials, the suspension of Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) privileges, and Bangladesh's non-participation in the Democracy Summit. The knock-on effects of these steps against Bangladesh, which is a “negative and red signal” to the Bangladesh administration. Unless it is solved, at least it is mitigated, by adopting a wide range of measures, Bangladesh’s economy will—hands down— suffer a lot down the line.

To reinvigorate and improve this overarching relationship, several proactive measures can be taken. High-level diplomatic engagement must take center stage, assuring the U.S. of Bangladesh's commitment to solving human rights and electoral issues. Civil society, including international non-governmental organizations, advocacy groups, and think tanks, can serve as catalysts and bridges for mutual understanding. Public diplomacy initiatives may generate a more favorable narrative, underscoring success stories and fostering discussions that address contemporary challenges. Crisis communication strategies are crucial for managing and mitigating potential conflicts, ensuring that communication during crises prevents escalations. Moreover, Track II Diplomacy—unofficial dialogues involving think tanks, academics, and influential figures—can help find critical issues and build trust. These types of recommendations are the stepping stones toward a robust, forward-looking partnership.

As Bangladesh aspires to achieve holistic development across democracy, technology, education, society, and the digital sphere, nurturing a symbiotic and unblemished alliance with the United States becomes imperative. Diplomatically persuading American authorities about Bangladesh's relationships with China and Russia, emphasizing economic development, is vital. As a nation with immense potential, Bangladesh must navigate adept diplomacy to secure its place in the global arena. Policies promoting enhanced bilateral cooperation with the U.S. serve as a powerful tool in building a strong and enduring relationship. It's a chance for Bangladesh to emulate the mutual respect and cooperation in between.

In conclusion, nurturing a robust partnership with the United States is not just a choice; it's a necessity for Bangladesh's progress on the world stage. With the right approach, both nations can embark on a journey of mutual growth, benefiting not only themselves but also the larger global community. Bangladesh should bear in mind its foreign policy: Friendship to all, malice to none.

This article published at :

1. The Asian Age, BD: 15Nov23

2. Modern Ghana : 14 Nov23

Can Beijing Mediate an Israel-Hamas Ceasefire?

M. A. Hossain,

As the conflict between Israel and Hamas intensifies, the death toll of civilians in Gaza has risen to more than 10,000, including 3,700 children. In this catastrophic context, China has stepped forward to mediate between the parties. Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, discussed the conflict situation with officials in Washington, perceiving the fear of a wider regional war. The US counterpart has assured full support for working with China to find a resolution. President Xi Jinping has dispatched his Middle East special envoy, Zhai Jun, to the region to meet with Arab leaders. There is hope that only China, with strong diplomatic relations with both Israel and Palestine, as well as with Iran, which backs Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, can mediate a ceasefire. Beijing has previously emerged as an impartial and successful mediator, notably brokering a rare détente between Iran and Saudi Arabia. It has also been one of the most vocal proponents of a ceasefire in UN meetings. However, China's initial silence and its first statement on the conflict have angered Israel. Apparently, Mr. Netanyahu is not in the mood to listen to any world leader. So, it will be a gargantuan task for Beijing to bring all the actors to the table.

China has consistently supported the Palestinian cause, owing to its alignment with Maoism and liberation movements in the 1960s and 1970s. Chinese Communist Party founder, Mao Zedong, even sent weapons to Palestinians in support of 'National Liberation' movements worldwide. Mao even compared Israel to Taiwan, both backed by the US imperialism. During those years, Beijing armed and trained the Palestine Liberation Organization and other Palestinian militant groups. After Mao's death in 1976, China began opening up to the world and softened its position. It normalized relations with Israel in 1992. China's strategic approach to the Middle East for more than a decade has sought to portray itself as a friend to all in the region and the enemy of none.

For the past decade, China has invested considerable diplomatic energy in building its influence in the Middle East. President Xi has adopted the policy to promote multi-alignment among countries in the region, described in Chinese government documents as "balance diplomacy" and "positive balancing." Briefly, balance diplomacy entails not taking sides in rival countries, and positive balancing aims to create a strategic balance among global or regional powers in the Middle East. Chinese foreign policy initiatives are designed to appeal to countries in the Global South that feel increasingly alienated from the US-led rules-based international order.

In 2016, China entered into a comprehensive strategic partnership with Saudi Arabia, and in 2020, an agreement of 25-year cooperation was signed with Iran. It has expanded economic ties with other Gulf countries, including Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Oman. China has also deepened its economic ties with Egypt. Beijing is the largest investor in the Suez Canal Area Development Project and reconstruction projects in Iraq and Syria. So, after the Saudi-Iran breakthrough, Beijing began to position itself as an impartial and trustworthy mediator in the region.

Beijing's initial response to the conflict was to continue with its balanced diplomacy. China did not condemn Hamas; instead, it urged both sides to "exercise restraint" and to embrace the "two-state solution." This was consistent with Beijing's long-standing policy of "non-interference" in other countries' internal affairs and its fundamental strategic approach to the region. However, to counter Western powers and their allies, Beijing sought to highlight its positive balancing and used its veto power at the United Nations. This stance became the strong appeal of the Global South. China has significant economic engagement with the Middle East and North Africa, and its dependency on Middle Eastern countries for the energy sector and the Belt and Road Initiative encourages its efforts to challenge the West's strategic maneuver. Africa and Latin America sympathize with the Palestinian cause, and Arab nations are united on the Palestinian issue. So, China is likely making a strategic move to gain the support of these nations, which are also increasingly searching for an alternative partner to the US.

In June, China signed a strategic partnership deal with the authority of the West Bank. Beijing also has a lucrative tech-sector trade with Israel, worth $1 billion in semiconductors per year. China has previously supported normalization efforts between Israel and Saudi Arabia. However, Chinese diplomatic actions are far more neutral than the stance of the US and its allies.

Global powers like Russia and the USA have overtly sided with their strategic partners in the Israel-Hamas conflict. For Israel, after enduring humiliating and devastating sufferings, the renowned 'Mr. Security,' Benjamin Netanyahu, and the army are subjected to immense domestic pressure. The Israeli Government and the army need to achieve tangible gains and win over Hamas and the Palestine Islamic Jihad. But, psychologically, Israel has lost the battle. Their formidable espionage agency failed to warn them, and more than 200 hostages were held by Hamas, making the conflict very critical. The Israeli indefensible army is now killing innocent civilians and children in Gaza instead of Hamas fighters. This disproportionate killing cannot continue for an extended period. In this context, it will be a golden opportunity for Beijing to burnish its reputation.

China's economic interests in the Middle East would be endangered if the conflict widens. The Chinese government has maintained a relatively balanced relationship with all actors related to the conflict, including the Palestinians, Arabs, Israel, Türkiye, Egypt, and Iran. It would be relatively comfortable for Beijing to bring all the players to the table. Moreover, China will not miss the opportunity to position itself as a superpower to rival the US in a multipolar world.

M A Hossain, political and defense analyst based in Bangladesh. He can be reached at: writetomahossain@gmail.com.

This article published at : 

1. The Geopolitics : 08 Nov 23

2. Daily Times, Pakistan : 10 Nov23

3. OZarab.media, Australia : 10 Nov23

4. The Nigerian Voice, Nigeria : 09Nov23

5. The Pakistan Daily, Pak : 10 Nov 23

6. The Asian Age, BD: 14 Nov 23

7. IDN-InDepthNews.com: 19 Nov23

8. The Arabian Post, UAE :29Nov23

The Battle Scenario in The Middle East.

M A Hossain, 

On October 7, 2023, Israel suffered its most devastating attack in decades, orchestrated by the Iran-backed Palestinian militant organization, Hamas. This conflict has significant implications for regional and international dynamics of geopolitics and geostrategic, based on roles played by various nations.  On the day when US President Joe Biden visited Israel, a notable meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping took place in Beijing. They discussed shared interests about the Ukraine crisis, Pacific security, and certainly the security situation in the Middle East(ME).

Before delving into the battle scenario of the ME, let us discuss the geostrategic interests first which are driving the battle drill of superpowers centering on the Israel-Hamas conflict. 

Firstly, the United States and its European and Asian allies are not interested in opening a new confrontational font beyond Ukraine and the Pacific.  This ME front could be a quagmire for the USA and that could alter the global order, its rules, and the hierarchy of its actors.  Secondly, the Eastern Mediterranean's security system is in disarray, primarily due to growing tensions between Russia and Israel since the annexation of Crimea.  Israel's support for Ukraine against Russia has strained the relations. Thirdly, the increasing integration of Iran into the Arab political space after the Iran-Saudi agreement has threatened US-brokered peace agreements between Israel and Arab nations. Lastly, the ME, particularly the Eastern Mediterranean, has become the critical point for major geopolitical projects like the Silk Road and the economic corridor between India and Europe. Consequently. It has increased the cost of conflict.

The Biden administration knows, any engagement of the US military in the Middle East would be a 'Trojan Horse' for America, but also important to extend its overt support for Israel ahead of the upcoming presidential elections. The political orientation of the Biden administration towards Israel is to maintain the strategic and historical relationship.  The influential Jewish community and evangelical pressure groups play a decisive factor in American presidential elections. 

The USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier, along with another carrier named USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, has made commitments to resolve the crisis in the Eastern Mediterranean. It is a rare incident after World War II, where two carrier groups are deployed in the same regional conflict. 

The USS Gerald R. Ford, a new addition to the American naval fleet, has deployed at least half of its strike group to increase regional security in the Adriatic Sea. The carrier is accompanied by the cruiser Normandy and destroyers Thomas Hunder, Ramage, Roosevelt, and Corney. All these are modern Arleigh Burke-class vessels.

This also known as the 12 Carrier Strike Group (12 CSG), has been deployed in various locations in the Eastern Mediterranean, including near the Red Sea, to deter missile threats and maintain a presence in the region. The extensive deployment of 12 CSG does not suggest an imminent military confrontation and advises the reduction of the level of risk in this area after satellite observations.

The potential restoration, refueling, or enhanced security arrangements near Crete, Greece, would put the striking group out of range from Hezbollah's long-range missile threats present in the Eastern Mediterranean region. Furthermore, American reconnaissance aircraft, the Boeing P-8 Poseidon, RC-135V/W Rivet, remain active in this area to provide ongoing surveillance guidance.

The temporary entry of the Carrier Strike Group into the European theater of operations of the US Sixth Fleet elevates the significance of the European theater in the European Command's operational sphere. However, increased hostilities and a potential wider regional conflict led the British military logistics support ship to be deployed for possible evacuation. On the other hand, the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower is expected to advance towards the Arabian Gulf, indicating implications for a more significant military movement in this region. The US Department of Defense has deployed 300 troops to US Central Command to deter any outside groups from escalating the Israel-Hamas conflict and to protect the US troops already deployed in that area. Approximately 2,000 troops have been ordered to be prepared for deployment within 24 hours.

The Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has strategically altered the deployment of its naval escort groups to challenge the leadership of the United States Navy in international maritime security operations. Due to the presence of China's sole foreign naval base in Djibouti, the Middle East has gained importance in terms of naval deployments to protect oil trade routes. The current PLAN involves three naval escort groups, 43rd, 44th, and 45th, each consisting of a destroyer, a pair of frigates, and a logistical support vessel, actively monitoring Kuwait and the Horn of Africa.

Moreover, Russia has taken a clear stance on the Israel-Palestine conflict, aligning with Israel's actions in condemnation of the Palestinian approach. Russia's naval activities in the Black Sea, the Mediterranean, and the Black Sea region are driven by dual objectives, influencing Ukraine's actions and serving as a warning signal in the Black Sea area. Importantly, the deployment also indicates that the Russian military can intervene in the East Mediterranean. Russia's kilo-class diesel submarine is detected in the Dover Strait of the English Channel, which is heading towards the Baltic Sea. Its hypersonic Kinzhal missiles are capable of reaching targets in the East Mediterranean. 

Israeli indiscriminate airstrikes caused the loss of 9,000 lives, including 3,700 children. Many countries, especially those not in the Western world, are saying that powerful nations and their allies shouldn't bend the rules of the international system to their advantage. Utilizing this system only strengthens the argument that some nations are using "human rights" for their own purposes.

M A Hossain, political and defense analyst based in Bangladesh. 

Email : writetomahossain@gmail.com

 

This published at :

1 The Nation, Pakistan : 05Nov23

2. OZ Arab Media, Australia : 06 Nov 23

3. The Nigerian Voice, Nigeria : 06 Nov23

4. The Catch Line, Pakistan : 07Nov23

5. The Asian Age, BD: 08 Nov 23

6. Pakistan Observer, Pak : 12 Nov 23