Zelenskyy's Fate Hangs in Delusion and Illusion.

M A Hossain, 

The Ukrainian government faces enormous challenges and risks from internal divisions and the waning support of its Western allies. It is evident that President Vladimir Putin has skillfully managed the war that erupted in February 2022. By the end of 2023, the delivery of military equipment to Ukraine will reach its lowest level since the conflict began. Kyiv has mainly depended on the weapon stockpiles of its allied countries, and the IMF has announced that the Ukrainian economy can only survive for 'a few months' without Western financial aid. Moreover, the possible return of a Republican president after 2024 would be a major setback for the US backing of Ukraine. However, the Hamas-Israel conflict has provided an opportunity for the Biden administration to deprioritize the Ukraine war. Thus, the geopolitical factors, electoral cycles, arms transfers, and the availability of ammunition have left Zelenskyy's fate hanging in delusion and illusion. 

For the first time, the Pentagon disclosed an exact date for the depletion of resources meant to support Kyiv. According to Bloomberg, the US Department of Defense informed Congress that the funds allocated to replenish weapons for Ukraine would run out by December 30, 2023. The US Senate Republicans have blocked a $110.5 billion aid package for their allies. The Pentagon spokesman, Patrick Ryder, stated earlier this month that Washington would have to choose between its combat readiness and the provision of weapons to Ukraine due to a shortage of financial resources. Additionally, at a summit in Brussels, EU leaders failed to agree on a four-year financial plan of €60 billion for Ukraine. The Kremlin warned the EU that any shipment containing weapons to Kyiv would be regarded as a legitimate target. Ukraine's much-hyped summer counteroffensive failed to meet the expectations of its allies. Therefore, after nearly two years of war, the Atlantic nations are beginning to focus on their national security interests rather than those of Ukraine's.

The West provoked the Ukraine war on Russia, a clear display of its hegemonic global agenda. Russia has not shown any imperialist or territorial ambition in this war. Zelenskyy came to power in 2014 through a Western-supported coup. He immediately started efforts to integrate Ukraine into the EU. Since Ukraine lies within Russia's sphere of influence, Russia opposed it and this led to the conflict. The Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, inadvertently exposed a broader, dishonorable motive for the proxy war during his visit to Poland in April 2022. He said that Washington's goal was not only to help Ukraine repel Russia's invasion, but also to 'weaken Russia' to the point that it could no longer pose a threat to any other country. However, there is little regard for the impact on the suffering inhabitants of the country that serves as a battleground for the proxy war, and surprisingly little concern for the wider geopolitical implications. It is simply to harass and bleed Washington's rival, as well as boost the depleted US economy by the military-industrial complex. 

The nature of war is inherently unstable, marked by constant changes in circumstances. There are some possible scenarios for the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. Mainly, if Donald Trump or the Republican Party wins the upcoming 2024 US presidential election, then it could lead to a significant change in the course of the Russia-Ukraine war. A Republican president would be likely to reduce assistance to Ukraine and engage in diplomatic talks to end the conflict. The US would probably shift its focus to the Indo-Pacific region. This recalibration would be a chance to strengthen Russia's control over the occupied Ukrainian territories. At the same time, such a sudden change in U.S. policy towards Ukraine would undermine its reputation as a dependable security guarantor not only for the EU but also for other parts of the world. There could be another scenario, a drastic cut in Western support for Ukraine could lead to Russia completely taking over eastern and southern Ukraine. That would totally block Ukraine's access to the Black Sea.

Unlike Ukraine, Russia has enough supplies of weapons for 2024. Mr. Putin has been preparing his military for more than a year. Russia has raised its 2024 budget for military spending. Ukraine's slow advance against Russia's heavily fortified defense during the recent counteroffensive could lead to a war of attrition in the Ukrainian military. It is very doubtful that Ukraine is able to launch another counteroffensive in the near future. The right wing, populist, Eurosceptics statesmen in the EU also complicate Ukraine's future. Netherlands and Hungarian leaders, Geert Wilders and Viktor Orbán, are opposed to stronger EU sanctions on Russia. 

Russia's upcoming 2024 presidential election has a significant influence on the Russia-Ukraine War. Mr. Putin could order his commanders to restart large-scale offensive operations with an ambition to seize new territories. New battlefield victories would enhance his popularity and legitimacy among the Russian people, who may view him as a strong leader. He can also present himself as a protector of their national interests and sovereignty against foreign interference. No doubt, the Ukraine issue will help Mr. Putin to consolidate his power within his own political system. 

The West never cares about Ukraine. The country is used as a pawn to 'weaken' Russia in this proxy war. The Israel-Hamas conflict has provided the opportunity to escape from this proxy war for the West. Mr. Zelenskyy, the lone man who has ruined Ukraine, and surely, he will be held accountable in the future for many lives and cities. And, the relations between Russia and the West will never improve through force and intimidation. Respectful and diplomatic postures are the only way to prevent conflict.

M A Hossain, a political and defense analyst based in Bangladesh. He can be reached at: writetomahossain@gmail.com

This article published at :

1. Eurasia Review, Oregon, USA: 29 Dec23

2. The Eurasian Times,New Delhi:30 Dec23

3. OZarab media, Aus:31 Dec 23

4. Review Nepal, Kathmandu:01 Jan 24

5. Asian Age, BD: 03Jan 24

6. Pakistan Today, 06Jan24

The Complex Interplay: America's Sanctions and Bangladesh's Counterterrorism Initiatives.

M A Hossain, 

In the intricate mosaic of global counterterrorism endeavors, Bangladesh emerges as a nation adeptly navigating the multifaceted challenges posed by terrorist activities. The recently published Country Reports on Terrorism for the year 2022 by the US State Department, furnished a comprehensive and perceptive elucidation of Bangladesh's counterterrorism milieu.

Throughout the annals of 2022, Bangladesh encountered a relatively scant number of instances of terrorist violence, chiefly attributable to the relentless pursuit of militant groups by the authorities. The report accentuates the fact that Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, an unwavering luminary at the nation's helm, along with other governmental functionaries, consistently underscored the country's unequivocal stance against terrorism. Sheikh Hasina's steadfast commitment to expelling terrorism from the nation has propelled the vigorous counterterrorism initiatives undertaken by Bangladesh.

The leadership of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is distinguished by a proactive and resolute approach aimed at ensuring the safety and security of the nation. Despite confronting myriad challenges, including the repudiation of the presence of globally organized militant factions, Sheikh Hasina has exhibited unwavering determination in her 'Zero Tolerance' policy against terrorism, safeguarding the tranquility and stability of Bangladesh.

The Institute for Economics and Peace, a Sydney-based organization specializing in terrorism studies, unveiled a report on April 10, 2023. Remarkably, Bangladesh outperforms Pakistan, India, and Sri Lanka, as well as the United States and the United Kingdom in the Global Terrorism Index, as per the report. This index meticulously analyzes a country's annual incidence of terrorist activities, hostage situations, and casualties. Afghanistan claims the undesirable top spot for terrorism, with Pakistan at 6, India at 13, the United States at 30, the United Kingdom at 42, and Bangladesh securing the 43rd position.

The data reveals a noteworthy trend for Bangladesh, ranking 40th in 2022, 43rd in 2023, and notably surging to 22nd in 2016. In essence, since 2016, Bangladesh has consistently elevated its standing in the global fight against terrorism. Notably, when compared to other South Asian countries, as well as the United States, Bangladesh has maintained a commendable lead. Consequently, the report stands as a distinctly positive affirmation of Bangladesh's concerted efforts in combating terrorism on the international stage.

These militant factions, driven by the objective of destabilizing the law and order situation in Bangladesh with a clandestine agenda of ousting Sheikh Hasina from power, had converged into a formidable force. Systematically orchestrated assaults, targeting individuals of a secularist disposition, journalists, bloggers, and even foreigners, became an unsettlingly recurrent phenomenon. At this critical juncture, the Sheikh Hasina-led-Awami League government initiated resolute measures against these elements, with the international community, notably the United States, playing a remarkably effective role. Their contribution involved the adept training of members within law enforcement agencies, including the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB), thereby endowing these agencies with the capacity to effectively counteract terrorism and militancy within the nation.

A salient development spotlighted in the report is the October proclamation of operations against Jama’atul Ansar Fil Hindal Sharqiya (JAHS), purportedly an AL-Qaeda-inspired group. Authorities disclosed that JAHS were undergoing training in the Chittagong Hill Tracts(CHT) with intentions of executing attacks elsewhere. In 1996, Sheikh Hasina's first government freed the Chittagong Hill Tracts from the insurgency problem. The Rapid Action Battalion (RAB), a counterterrorism expert unit, launched operations to thwart this potential menace, underscoring a proactive and preemptive stance in the realm of counterterrorism.

The delineation between terrorists and insurgents is rapidly diminishing. In nations where these elements stem from the mainstream population, the efficacy of counterterrorism and counterinsurgency (CT-COIN) operations becomes uncertain. The success of such endeavors hinges on grappling with the intricate socio-political and economic issues at play in these regions. Recognizing that terrorism transcends the bounds of a mere law-and-order predicament, it becomes evident that facile remedies or reliance on police and military interventions are inadequate. But, in reality, the government and its agencies are still successful in curbing the extremist threat in Bangladesh. 

The recent sanction imposed on the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) in Bangladesh by the US State Department, while ostensibly symbolic, has impeded the commendable work and noble purpose that RAB strives to achieve. The repercussions of this sanction are poised to inflict hardship primarily upon the ordinary, peace-loving citizens of Bangladesh. In effect, America appears to be stemming an ostensibly noble initiative against terrorism, assuming a dubious role by obstructing those actively involved in the ongoing battle against terrorism. This situation underscores the complexities and unintended consequences that can arise in the realm of international relations and counterterrorism efforts.

Terrorism, a ubiquitous global phenomenon, is not the exclusive responsibility of any single nation, nor is any nation obligated to combat it in isolation. Rather, it constitutes a collective responsibility, necessitating the engagement of every country. In Bangladesh, the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) is diligently striving to make a meaningful contribution to global peace by adopting a robust stance against local, regional, and international terrorism. Through its concerted efforts, RAB aims to be a proactive participant in the broader collaborative endeavor to mitigate the pervasive threat of terrorism on local, regional, and global scales.

M A Hossain, political and defense analyst based in Bangladesh. He can be reached at: writetomahossain@gmail.com

This article published at :

1. Weekly Blitz, BD :13Dec23

2. The Arabian Post, UAE : 14Dec23

3. OZarab media, Australia : 12Dec23

4. The Eastern Herald, India :13 Dec23

5. The North Lines, India :14Dec23

On the Brink: Bangladesh Faces Political Upheaval Ahead of January Polls.

M A Hossain, 

The political milieu in Bangladesh has been fraught with tension, climaxing in weeks of protests and violent clashes, casting a shadow of apprehension as the scheduled general election on January, 07, 2024, approaches. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), reinvigorated as the main opposition force, has intensified its protests, fervently demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. The crux of their discontent revolves around the insistence on establishing a neutral interim government before the general election, a demand staunchly rebuffed by the incumbent Awami League (AL)-led government. This singular point of contention has deepened the schism between the AL and the BNP, accentuated by the AL's pursuit of a fourth consecutive term, further delineating a widening political chasm. Both major parties exhibit reluctance to engage in meaningful dialogue, casting doubt on the prospects for reconciliation before the impending elections.

In a noteworthy display of strength, the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami orchestrated a "grand rally" on October, 28, advocating their "one-point demand" for a neutral interim election-time government. In response, the AL called for a "peace rally" on the same day. Regrettably, what began as a peaceful assembly devolved into violence, necessitating police intervention to regain control. BNP activists became embroiled in clashes with both police and AL supporters. The day-long street battle, despite initial police restraint, escalated into violence from the BNP rally. This tumult resulted in significant casualties, with BNP supporters attacking police, journalists, setting fire to a police hospital, and assaulting the Chief Justice's residence of the Supreme Court.

While the BNP alleges that the violence was either deliberately provoked or part of government sabotage to discredit their protests. But, the undeniable fact remains—the damage and destruction cannot be credibly denied. In response, the government has initiated a crackdown on the BNP's ranks and files. The move has applauded by the AL as a necessary response to the October atrocities.

Subsequently, the opposition has shifted its political tactics from public demonstrations to nationwide strikes and blockades. As of last week in November, at least 180 public transports were set ablaze. The BNP attempts to portray these incidents as sabotage orchestrated by government agencies or AL supporters. While the AL endeavors to exploit these blockades and strikes as part of their election campaign.

In my opinion, the BNP and its allies have unwittingly fallen into the Awami League's political stratagem by fomenting violence on October, 28. It would be prudent for the BNP to sidestep this Machiavellian ploy orchestrated by the Awami League, thereby enhancing the visibility of their nonviolent campaign and conveying a resounding message to Western nations through heightened public engagement.

 Washington's Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS) marks the inception of a US-led alliance strategically positioned to counterbalance China. Bangladesh and other South Asian nations find themselves at a crossroad amid this superpower rivalry. After the midpoint of President Biden's tenure, the United States, the European Union, and predominantly Western governments have been exerting pressure on Bangladesh for enhancements in democratic processes, human rights, and freedom of expression. Notably, the opposition party BNP and its allies have embraced this initiative.

The Sheikh Hasina-led Awami League government has enjoyed unwavering support from India over the past decade. However, following the recent G20 summit in India, the United States has recalibrated its policy towards India, signaling a reluctance to cede full leadership to India in the South Asian context. The 2 + 2 dialogue in India has further revealed a divergence between India and the United States concerning their stance on Bangladesh. Conversely, China and Russia have been critical of the United States, branding its actions as unwarranted "interference" in Bangladesh's internal affairs. The BNP has denounced Russia and China for their positions on Bangladesh.

Western nations have advocated for a dialogue to resolve Bangladesh's political impasse. While the AL has occasionally agreed to dialogue, it closed this option after announcing the election schedule on November 7. Meanwhile, the BNP has remained relatively silent and less interested to sit with the AL.

The political turbulence unfolds against a backdrop of economic hardship, with a significant portion of the population grappling with the escalating cost of living, particularly the rise in food prices. The country's foreign exchange reserves have halved, dropping from $42 billion to $21 billion by July 2023. Earlier this year, Bangladesh sought assistance from the IMF. Recent concerns expressed by the United States regarding labor law reform in Bangladesh suggest potential dire consequences for the country's RMG sector in terms of exports and imports.

The BNP's strategy aims to leverage Western sentiments and capitalize on public discontent regarding economic challenges. Their movement seeks to corner Hasina into either stepping down or resorting to violence, thereby instigating broader political strife. Hasina, within this limited context, faces two options: reinstate an election-time interim government or relinquish power to the military. While the military's intervention may not immediately favor the BNP, it could eventually level the playing field. Conversely, the AL advocates upholding the constitutional process, gaining moral strength to counter adversities. They believe that lawful pressure can disrupt BNP's leader Tarique Rahman's command and control. If BNP's chain of command falters, Rahman's choices would narrow down to either returning to Dhaka for political survival and potential incarceration or accepting political disaster while remaining in exile.

Amid persistent unrest, the imperative to uphold the right to freedom of assembly and safeguard the well-being of peaceful protestors remains paramount but also a gargantuan task. In this broad and acrimonious political context, compromise is perceived as an existential political threat. The destiny of the nation, inhabited by 180 million people, is not subject to external pressures or internal power plays. True power lies with the common people, and they understand when and how to assert their authority.

M A Hossain, political and defense analyst based in Bangladesh. He can be reached at : writetomahossain@gmail.com 

This article published at :

1. OZarab.media, Australia:03Dec23

2. Pakistan Today, Pak : 04 Dec23

3. Modern Diplomacy, EU: 04 Dec23

4. The New Nation, BD: 06Dec23

5. South Asia Journal, USA: 05Dec23

6. The Asian Age, BD: 07Dec23

7. Indepthnews.com,Ng: 08Dec23

8. Eurasia Review, 09Dec23

9. The Catch Line, Pakistan : 10Dec23

10. The Eastern Herald, India : 13Dec23