Iran and Turkmenistan relations on the rise.

M A Hossain,

In the complex world of geopolitics, diplomacy operates in the nuances, subtly molding the interactions between nations in ways that often escape the spotlight. This rings particularly true for the evolving bond between Iran and Turkmenistan, a relationship defined by pragmatism, collaborative economics, and mutual security considerations. Amidst the intricacies of international relations, these two nations forge a partnership that navigates beyond the headlines, guided by a shared commitment to practicality and the pursuit of common goals.

Ever since President Ebrahim Raisi took office, he has ardently advocated for a “Neighbors First” foreign policy approach, strategically positioning Iran to enhance connections with neighboring countries despite enduring Western sanctions and global scrutiny. Within this strategic framework, Iran has prioritized the cultivation of robust relationships with neighboring states, effectively pushing back against attempts to isolate and weaken its standing on the international platform. Through proactive engagement with nearby nations, Iran strives to fortify its regional influence and safeguard its interests in the face of external pressures.

Amidst these circumstances, Iran’s interaction with Turkmenistan has advanced steadily, albeit discreetly, buoyed by a shared recognition of mutual interests and aligned objectives. Despite the generally calm atmosphere along the Iranian-Turkmen border, contrasting with the more volatile borders with Afghanistan and Pakistan, the bilateral rapport has prospered, primarily propelled by economic necessities. This flourishing relationship underscores the pragmatic approach both nations adopt in pursuing their respective economic agendas.

Diplomatic initiatives and cooperative ventures spanning diverse sectors have played a pivotal role in strengthening the bonds between Tehran and Ashgabat since President Raisi’s assumption of office in 2021. Particularly noteworthy is the landmark visit of Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian to Turkmenistan in March 2024, which underscored a significant milestone in bilateral diplomacy. Over the course of his two-day sojourn, Amir-Abdollahian engaged in substantive discussions with Turkmen officials, expressing mutual contentment with the strides made in advancing bilateral relations. This visit exemplifies the commitment of both nations to fostering deeper collaboration and understanding.

Prior high-level dialogues between Iranian and Turkmen officials have set the stage for increased collaboration. Turkmenistan’s President Serdar Berdimuhamedow’s visit to Tehran in June 2022 proved pivotal, culminating in the signing of nine memoranda of understanding. These agreements, spanning key sectors including investment, transportation, and environmental conservation, served as a testament to the shared dedication of both nations towards bolstering their alliance across diverse domains. Through these accords, Iran and Turkmenistan affirmed their mutual commitment to enhancing cooperation and fostering strategic partnerships that are poised to yield substantial benefits for both countries and their respective populations.

Moreover, in May 2023, further gatherings resulted in the signing of additional agreements geared towards fostering cooperation in various vital sectors. These encompassed agriculture, education, electricity exchanges, investment, and the development of international corridors. Such initiatives serve as tangible manifestations of the shared resolve of Iran and Turkmenistan to elevate their partnership to unprecedented levels. Through these collaborative efforts, both nations endeavor to cultivate deeper bonds of friendship and cooperation, enriching their relationship for the mutual benefit of their peoples.

Central to the Iran-Turkmenistan alliance lies their extensive cooperation in the energy sphere, with a specific focus on natural gas trade. Turkmenistan, endowed with the world’s fourth-largest natural gas reserves, finds in Iran a pivotal market for its gas exports. This symbiotic relationship not only meets Iran’s energy demands but also offers Turkmenistan a dependable avenue to export its abundant gas resources. Through this collaboration, both nations mutually benefit, ensuring the efficient utilization of their energy assets.

Yet, hurdles emerged in 2017, particularly concerning gas-related disputes, which strained the bilateral ties. Despite this setback, concerted efforts in economic diplomacy have borne fruit, leading to the amicable resolution of differences between Tehran and Ashgabat. Through diplomatic channels, both nations have successfully navigated past challenges, underscoring their commitment to maintaining constructive relations and overcoming obstacles for the collective benefit of their citizens.

Furthermore, trilateral accords involving Iran, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan have demonstrated the promise of regional collaboration in the energy sector. Despite facing challenges in negotiating commercial terms, these agreements signify progress towards leveraging the collective potential of the region’s energy resources. By fostering cooperation among key players, such initiatives pave the way for enhanced energy security and economic prosperity in the region.

In addition to energy partnerships, Iran and Turkmenistan are positioned as crucial transit countries, facilitating trade routes connecting Central Asia to global markets. However, the impact of U.S. policies aimed at isolating Iran has impeded the realization of these transit routes, hindering the development of essential infrastructure necessary for regional connectivity. Despite these obstacles, the strategic significance of Iran and Turkmenistan in facilitating cross-border trade remains undeniable, highlighting the need for continued efforts to overcome geopolitical challenges and promote regional integration.

Although terrorism originating from Turkmenistan does not pose a major threat to Iran, both countries harbor shared security concerns, especially concerning extremist organizations operating in neighboring Afghanistan. While direct evidence of counterterrorism collaboration remains limited, the mutual dedication to combating terrorism highlights the robustness of the Iran-Turkmenistan partnership in safeguarding regional stability. This shared commitment underscores the depth of cooperation between the two nations in addressing common security challenges.

The burgeoning alliance between Iran and Turkmenistan exemplifies the efficacy of pragmatic diplomacy and mutual cooperation in cultivating lasting partnerships. Despite encountering various challenges, both nations have showcased a readiness to surmount differences and advance shared goals, thereby benefiting their respective populations and the wider region. As they navigate the intricacies of the geopolitical terrain, Iran and Turkmenistan are positioned to deepen their bonds of friendship and collaboration. With a firm commitment to overcoming obstacles, they are poised to further solidify their relationship and contribute to regional stability and prosperity in the years ahead.

M A Hossain, political and defense analyst based in Bangladesh. He can be reached at: writetomahossain@gmail.com

This article published at: 

1. Weekly Blitz, BD : 29 Apr'24

2. The Asian Age, BD : 01 May'24

The National Unity And Unveiling Pakistan's Economic Renaissance.

M A Hossain, 

Amidst persistent economic turbulence, Pakistan finds itself at a critical crossroads, grappling with profound financial woes despite its rich reservoirs of resources. Once lauded for its promise and economic ascent, the nation now teeters on the brink of financial collapse. Not long ago, Pakistan held sway as a beacon of potential in the South Asian realm, beckoning investors with its allure. Its economic trajectory outpaced many of its regional counterparts; boasting a GDP growth of 4.1 percent in 2009-2010, the nation seemed poised for continued prosperity. Yet, against this backdrop, one is compelled to ponder: what catalyzed Pakistan's staggering descent from boundless promise to the precipice of economic insolvency?

Pakistan has long navigated a convoluted socio-political milieu marred by factionalism and discord, hindering progress and corroding public faith in its institutions. While an array of factors contributes to the present conundrum - ranging from governance inefficiencies to external pressures - the paramount impediment remains the absence of a cohesive national ethos and solidarity.

In moments of turmoil, nations must coalesce around a shared vision, transcending political schisms and personal agendas. The economic perils besieging Pakistan necessitate collective resolve and unwavering dedication from all stakeholders. Merely assigning blame or indulging in partisan rhetoric falls short; instead, concerted endeavors toward reconciliation and collaboration are imperative.

 

Meanwhile, Pakistan can take several urgent measures to salvage its economy from bankruptcy. Here are some suggestions:

As Pakistan faces economic challenges, it becomes crucial to explore avenues for rejuvenation. One promising solution amidst the various strategies available is the transfer of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to potential foreign investors. This approach not only infuses essential capital into the economy but also fosters efficiency, innovation, and competitiveness across key sectors. Nonetheless, executing such a significant step requires careful consideration of its implications. Traditionally, state-owned enterprises in sectors like energy, telecommunications, and transportation have played pivotal roles for economy.  Nonetheless, inefficiencies, mismanagement, and corruption have plagued many SOEs, impeding growth and draining public resources. Privatization presents an enticing alternative, unlocking avenues for transformation and revitalization.

It's worth noting that by transferring SOEs to foreign investors, Pakistan can allure capital investment, technology infusion, and expertise, catalyzing innovation and modernization. Foreign investors not only bring financial backing but also global best practices and market access, positioning privatized enterprises for sustainable growth and competitiveness on the global stage. Furthermore, privatization fosters accountability and transparency as private owners are incentivized to optimize efficiency and profitability. This shift from state control to private ownership minimizes bureaucratic hurdles and political intervention, enabling enterprises to operate with greater flexibility and adaptability to market fluctuations.

The benefits of privatization extend beyond economic realms to encompass social and environmental dimensions. Privatized enterprises are often better equipped to fulfill social obligations such as job creation, skill enhancement, and community involvement. Moreover, private ownership incentivizes environmental stewardship as companies prioritize resource efficiency and adopt eco-friendly technologies to enhance competitiveness and mitigate environmental risks. Nonetheless, meticulous planning, transparency, and stakeholder engagement are indispensable to navigate the intricacies of privatization and ensure its efficacy. With strategic foresight and decisive action, Pakistan can harness the transformative force of privatization to construct a more resilient and prosperous economy for the future.

Pakistan's unexplored natural and mineral resources hold significant potential for economic advancement, contingent upon strategic partnerships and investment in exploration and extraction. By contracting with foreign firms, Pakistan can take into its expertise and capital to unlock resource value, driving economic prosperity and sustainable growth. Despite its diverse array of resources—ranging from oil, gas, and coal to minerals and renewable energy—Pakistan's resource sector remains largely underdeveloped due to limited investment in exploration infrastructure. Engaging foreign companies can expedite sectoral development, create jobs, generate revenue, and stimulate the economy.

Foreign partnerships would bring multiple benefits to Pakistan's economy. Firstly, they bring technical expertise, advanced technologies, and best practices, enhancing operational efficiency and reducing exploration risks. Secondly, foreign investment alleviates financial strain on the Pakistani government, funding exploration and supporting vital infrastructure development. Furthermore, collaboration ensures adherence to international standards, bolstering transparency, accountability, and governance in the resource sector. This safeguards environmental concerns, safety protocols, and fair labor practices, protecting local interests.

Moreover, such partnerships facilitate knowledge transfer and capacity building, empowering local professionals and nurturing domestic industries. Through skill development initiatives, technology transfers, and joint ventures, Pakistan can establish a sustainable framework for resource exploitation, securing prosperity for future generations.

It is paramount to repair Pakistan's global image to pursue its economic revitalization. The international perception profoundly impacts foreign investment decisions and capital for sustainable growth. Challenges such as security concerns, political instability, and governance issues have tarnished Pakistan's global standing and have dissuaded foreign investors. To reverse this, policymakers must prioritize initiatives to enhance Pakistan's reputation and create an inviting investment environment.

Addressing security perceptions is a key factor in restoring Pakistan's global image. While progress has been made, persistent threats demand robust security measures to reassure investors of safety and stability. Simultaneously, improving governance, transparency, and the rule of law are crucial. Streamlining processes, combating corruption, and ensuring judicial independence signal commitment to a business-friendly atmosphere. Collaboration with reputable international organizations further enhances Pakistan's credibility and global standing.

Historically, Pakistan has faced such political and economic crises after 1971; the mistake must not be repeated. Political parties must transcend their differences to tackle pressing challenges and prioritize unity for the national interest over individual agendas. Political discord has previously hindered progress and exacerbated economic woes, eroding public trust. Bipartisan cooperation is crucial in fiscal reforms, investment promotion, job creation, and social welfare initiatives. Together, parties can enact policies, reforms, and mobilize resources to stimulate growth and alleviate hardship.

The stakeholders, including business leaders and civil society, should collaborate by fostering transparent decision-making and broad-based participation in economic renewal efforts. Unity is the only pathway to resilience and prosperity in this critical economic juncture. It's time to set aside differences, unite for a common purpose, and embark on a collective journey towards a better future. 

M A Hossain, political and defense analyst based in Bangladesh.  He can be reached at: writetomahossain@gmail.com 

This article published at :

1. The Nation, Pakistan : 28 Apr'24

2. Daily Lead Pakistan, Pak: 28Apr'24

   

How to Defend Against the Dubious Kuki-Chin Armed Movement.

M A Hossain,

The Bangladesh government has garnered significant experience in countering insurgency activities in the Chattagram Hill Tracts (CHT). Through operations like "Operation Dabanal," the Bangladesh Armed Forces have effectively neutralized separatist armed groups. After the peace treaty, to date, "Operation Uttaron" has aimed to uphold law and order and improve the living standards of the Jumma people. With over two decades of such operations, the resurgence of another insurgency movement in that particular region would be a daydream if not wild dream. As a defense analyst, I would suggest opting for other perspectives on what has been happening in the CHT by the Kuki-Chin National Army.

The Kuki Chin community, rooted in the Sino-Tibetan Bawm origin, comprises members of the same tribes who are known by different names and live in close proximity to the borders of Bangladesh, Myanmar, and India. Their pursuit of autonomy and cultural recognition is historically grounded. Initiatives such as the Chin Hills Regulation of 1896 in Burma and agreements like the Panglong Conference Agreement of 1947 and the Mizoram Peace Accord of 1986 aimed to recognize the unique identity and autonomy of the Kuki-Chin community but remain unfulfilled. The ZO Reunification Organization's advocacy for reunifying Kuki-Chin and Mizo tribes underscores the challenges faced by displaced individuals across these regions.

The emergence of Kuki-Chin armed groups has introduced further complexity to the geopolitical landscape in this region. Global powers exploit internal grievances and regional conflict dynamics with Kuki-Chin groups to achieve their geostrategic interests. Western powers have a keen interest in the mineral-rich "Golden Triangle" famed for this hilly range. The United States has expressed solidarity with Muslims in Arakan for an independent state. Furthermore, Christian missionaries contribute to demographic shifts in CHT and Mizoram by converting local indigenous populations to Christianity, potentially leading to demands for a Christian majority state, like the way it happened in Sudan. 

Meanwhile, China employs a 'Positive Diplomacy' approach to counter the USA's 'China Containment Policy' in the Indo-Pacific region. China is exploiting the US allies and exposing USA not as a trustworthy partner to undermine US influence. China's success in the Middle East challenges US allies in Asia, compelling India, a close ally of the USA, to navigate  strained situations as it finds itself almost surrounded by China’s allies. India is compelled to remain a neutral nation, not tilted too much towards the US.

In the end, the Kuki-Chin are fighting against the Indian government, demanding autonomy in Myanmar, and exerting soft pressure on the government of Bangladesh. Therefore, it is quite understandable which external actors are behind the Kuki-Chin National Front.

The Bangladesh Armed Forces have gained global recognition for their peace-building and peace-enforcing efforts under the UN umbrella. Additionally, they possess extensive experience and notable success in countering insurgency in the CHT, with an Infantry Division specifically designated for this region. In my opinion, the Bangladesh Armed Forces should initiate a new military operation under the mandate of aiding civil administration.

It is crucial to recognize the Kuki-Chin movement as a political threat. Relying solely on military action is unlikely to yield fruitful results and may instead entrap security forces in the intentions of insurgents. This challenge requires a multifaceted approach, encompassing diplomatic efforts, political initiatives, and military strategies, to effectively mitigate the escalation of such extremist activities.

Compared to the neighboring states in the region, Bangladesh faces relatively lesser threats from this community. Therefore, the government's diplomatic endeavors need to be intensified to ensure the safety and security of the Kuki-Chin community within the country. It is imperative for our diplomatic efforts to ensure that no other nation provides patronage, harbors, or funds Kuki-Chin terrorist groups.

The executive and legislative administrations in Chattogram need to forge close collaborations with the less developed indigenous tribes in their respective areas. They can propose special development projects to the government, where Bangladesh Army can extend its capabilities to play a pivotal role in implementing those initiatives. Reports indicate that the Bangladesh Army's Engineering Corps is actively enhancing communication network in the region. To further bolster development efforts, the government should seek increased funding from foreign investment partners, focusing on areas such as education, communication, and tourism. This approach will create more job opportunities for locals, contributing to socio-economic uplift.

Local administration and security forces must instill confidence within the less developed indigenous tribes. Continuation of military operations to apprehend wrongdoers is essential. However, given the complexity of military operations in CHT due to limited intelligence, a comprehensive and intelligence-driven approach, in tandem with political maneuver, can yield positive outcomes. Collaboration between Bangladesh's intelligence agencies and their counterparts in neighboring countries is imperative to counter this political threat.

Military operations should be intelligence-based to avoid resentment from local tribes, who may otherwise become sympathetic to terrorist groups. The Kuki-Chin National Front (KNF) has conveyed their demand to Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, clearly stating that they don't seek independence but autonomy. Thus, it's a purely political movement, not a separatist one. Therefore, the government and state machinery must handle the situation with utmost care to prevent it from escalating into a separatist movement.

Efforts should be led by political leaders to integrate Kuki-Chin people into mainstream national politics, thereby abandoning armed conflict. It is also necessary to ensure that no local politician has the opportunity to exploit Kuki-Chin terrorist groups for mere political gain. Only criminals and terrorists should be dealt with using extreme force. Drawing upon its expertise in peacekeeping and counterinsurgency operations, the Bangladesh Army should adopt a multifaceted approach, combining military action with diplomatic engagement and fostering political dialogue with aggrieved ethnic groups. Regional leaders must act decisively to prevent destabilization of regional stability before it escalates further.

 

M A Hossain, political and defense analyst based in Bangladesh. He can be reached at: writetomahossain@gmail.com

This article published at :

1. Indian Defence Review, New Delhi: 20 Apr'24

2. The Arabian Post, UAE: 20 Apr'24

3. The Asian Age, BD: 22 Apr'24

4. The North Lines, India: 22 Apr'24

5. Eurasia Review, USA : 22 Apr'24

6. South Asia Journal, NJ,USA : 22 Apr'24

7. VT Foreign Policy, USA : 22 Apr'24

8. The Daily Messenger, BD : 23 Apr'24

9. Pakistan Today, Pak : 24 Apr'24

10. The Catch Line, Pak : 25 Apr'24