Western Rhetoric on China's Nuclear Threat Escalates Global Instability

M A Hossain,

In a recent interview with The Telegraph, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg emphasized the increasing threat from Russia and China, suggesting that the bloc might take missiles out of storage and place them on standby. This rhetoric, while alarming, is part of a larger pattern of Western narratives portraying China as a burgeoning nuclear threat. Stoltenberg’s assertion that a world where countries like China possess nuclear weapons, while NATO does not, is inherently more dangerous, reflects a deeply flawed understanding of global security dynamics.

The true danger lies in NATO’s aggressive posturing and the potential escalation of nuclear tensions. Stoltenberg’s remarks indicate a shift towards positioning NATO not just as a conventional military alliance but as a nuclear force. This shift aims to justify the strengthening of NATO’s nuclear capabilities and nuclear-sharing arrangements, predominantly driven by US strategic interests. At a pre-ministerial press conference on June 12, Stoltenberg highlighted the US’s ongoing efforts to modernize its nuclear arsenal in Europe, further exacerbating these tensions.

Stoltenberg’s warnings come amid the ongoing crisis in Ukraine, where the recently concluded peace summit in Switzerland failed to yield significant progress. The US-led West appears more invested in prolonging the conflict, leveraging nuclear deterrence against Russia rather than seeking a swift resolution. This approach, as noted by Chinese military expert Zhang Junshe, merely adds fuel to the fire, escalating tensions and undermining global stability.

Zhang argues that Stoltenberg’s remarks serve to align NATO’s actions with broader US strategies aimed at containing adversaries. This reflects a Cold War mentality, with NATO expanding its role globally, acting as a pawn for Washington to counter Russia in Europe and China in the Asia-Pacific. The US’s intent to deploy more strategic nuclear weapons, as stated by Pranay Vaddi, a senior White House aide, underscores this aggressive posture.

This narrative is further supported by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s (SIPRI) recent report, which claims that China is significantly expanding its nuclear capabilities and might match the US or Russia in intercontinental ballistic missiles by 2030. The report, highlighting China’s supposed operational alert status for some warheads, has been eagerly picked up by Western media, fueling fears of China’s “fast-growing” nuclear stockpile.

However, this portrayal is misleading and overlooks critical context. The US maintains a nuclear arsenal approximately ten times larger than China’s. The disproportionate focus on China’s nuclear development, despite its smaller stockpile, reveals a deliberate attempt to stymie China’s growth. According to Cui Heng, a research fellow at East China Normal University, this narrative constitutes nuclear blackmail, designed to suppress China’s rise and maintain Western dominance.

The global strengthening of nuclear arsenals is not an isolated phenomenon but a response to broader geopolitical conflicts and Western suppression of non-Western countries. The ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, coupled with aggressive Western policies, drive nations to bolster their nuclear capabilities as a deterrent. Zhang argues that China’s nuclear expansion is a necessary response to Western nuclear blackmail and threats, essential for safeguarding sovereignty and national security.

China’s nuclear policy fundamentally differs from that of the US and NATO. China maintains a no-first-use policy, emphasizing its nuclear arsenal as a defensive measure rather than an offensive threat. This contrasts sharply with the US’s more aggressive stance, where nuclear weapons are integral to its military strategy. If the US and NATO genuinely seek to avoid a dangerous world, they must reassess their perceptions and policies towards China.

The West’s narrative of China’s nuclear threat serves several purposes. It justifies the expansion of NATO’s nuclear capabilities, aligns with US strategic interests, and perpetuates a Cold War mentality. However, this narrative is counterproductive, driving global instability and escalating tensions. Instead of fostering dialogue and understanding, it promotes a dangerous arms race.

To move towards a more stable and peaceful world, the West must shift its approach. This involves recognizing China’s legitimate security concerns and the defensive nature of its nuclear policy. Rather than demonizing China’s nuclear development, the focus should be on arms control, disarmament, and diplomatic engagement. The US and NATO should lead by example, reducing their own nuclear arsenals and adopting more transparent, peaceful policies.

The repeated Western narratives of China’s nuclear threat contribute significantly to global instability. Stoltenberg’s remarks and the broader Western portrayal of China’s nuclear capabilities serve to justify aggressive postures and escalate tensions. A more balanced and nuanced understanding of global security dynamics is essential. Recognizing the defensive nature of China’s nuclear policy and addressing the underlying geopolitical conflicts can pave the way for a more secure and stable world. It is imperative for the US and NATO to change their approach, moving away from Cold War mentalities towards a future grounded in dialogue, mutual respect, and peace.

M A Hossain, political and defense analyst based in Bangladesh. He can be reached at: writetomahossain@gmail.com

This article published at :

1. The Nation, Pak : 24 June, 24

2. Pakistan Today, Pak : 25 June, 24

3. Weekly Blitz, BD : 23 June, 24

4. Muslim Times, BD : 24 June, 24

5. Daily Times, Pak : 24 June, 24

6. The Province, Pak : 24 June, 24

7. Asian Age, BD : 14 July, 24
   

Putin's Visit to North Korea Assumes Huge Significance

M A Hossain, 

The longstanding alliance between Russia and North Korea is built on a robust partnership, orchestrated by mutual respect, shared goals, and historical ties. Over seven decades, this relationship has been rooted in a shared struggle against Japanese militarism during WWII and the quest for national sovereignty. President Vladimir Putin's recent state visit to North Korea signifies the commitment of both nations to deepen their cooperation and face global challenges together.

The friendship between Russia and North Korea began in the aftermath of World War II when Soviet soldiers, alongside Korean patriots, defeated the Kwantung Army and liberated the Korean peninsula. This victory is immortalized by the monument on 'Moranbong Hill' in Pyongyang, which commemorates the Red Army's role in Korea's liberation. The Soviet Union was the first to recognize the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) and established diplomatic relations in 1948. Thereafter, this relationship marked the beginning of a partnership that would shape the region's geopolitical landscape.

In the early years, the Soviet Union played a pivotal role in helping North Korea build its national economy, healthcare system, and educational infrastructure. The Fatherland Liberation War (1950-1953) further cemented this alliance, with the Soviet Union providing crucial support to North Korea in its fight for independence. This assistance continued in the post-war period, aiding in the restoration and strengthening of North Korea's national economy.

The bilateral relations saw significant milestones with Vladimir Putin's first visit to Pyongyang in 2000 and subsequent interactions with North Korean leaders. These meetings laid the groundwork for multifaceted cooperation, encompassing economic, cultural, and strategic dimensions. The mutual visits and agreements reflect the commitment of both nations to a shared vision of sovereignty and development.

Today, Russia and North Korea's partnership extends beyond historical ties to active collaboration on contemporary global issues. North Korea's unwavering support for Russia's special military operation in Ukraine exemplifies this solidarity. Both nations stand united against what they perceive as Western attempts to impose a "rules-based order," which they view as a guise for neo-colonialism and double standards.

The United States' efforts to isolate Russia have met with resistance, as both Russia and North Korea continue to develop their economic capabilities and strategic alliances. This partnership is bolstered by a shared commitment to defending national sovereignty and opposing external pressures.

North Korea's ability to withstand years of economic pressure, military threats, and diplomatic isolation speaks to its resilience and determination. The DPRK's leadership, under Kim Jong Un, has achieved significant advancements in defense, technology, science, and industry. Despite external challenges, North Korea remains committed to peaceful resolution of differences, although it faces continued obstacles from the United States' shifting demands.

Russia's support for North Korea's right to self-determination and development is unwavering. Both nations are poised to collaborate on creating alternative trade mechanisms, opposing unilateral restrictions, and promoting a multipolar world order based on justice and mutual respect. This collaboration is aimed at enhancing the stability of international relations and ensuring equal security across Eurasia.

Cultural and educational exchanges are integral to strengthening the bonds between Russia and North Korea. Plans to promote academic mobility, mutual tourism, and youth and sports exchanges are in place to foster deeper understanding and cooperation. These initiatives reflect a commitment to people-centered diplomacy, enhancing confidence and mutual respect between the two nations.

The joint efforts of Russia and North Korea are aimed at elevating their bilateral interaction to new heights. This partnership is expected to facilitate mutually beneficial cooperation, enhance trade and economic ties, and improve the well-being of citizens in both countries. The shared vision includes developing mechanisms for joint opposition to illegitimate restrictions and fostering a stable and democratic international order.

The recent changes in North Korea's foreign policy are indicative of a strategic shift under Chairman Kim Jong Un's leadership. The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine have prompted North Korea to reassess its diplomatic and ideological stance. The declaration of South Korea as a hostile entity and the dismantling of symbols of inter-Korean unity mark a significant departure from previous policies.

Kim Jong Un's pragmatic approach reflects a recognition of the changed geopolitical landscape. The emphasis on self-reliance and autarky during the pandemic has reinforced North Korea's ideological cohesion and reduced dependence on China. The renewed military partnership with Russia provides North Korea with much-needed economic support and strategic benefits.

The evolving partnership between Russia and North Korea is a response to the shifting dynamics of global power. Both nations are united in their opposition to Western dominance and are working towards a multipolar world order. This collaboration is not just a reaction to external pressures but a proactive effort to shape a future based on mutual respect and shared interests.

The United States' approach to North Korea has remained largely unchanged, focused on containment and de-escalation. However, the strategic alignment of Russia and North Korea presents new challenges and opportunities for global diplomacy. The renewed focus on ideological and military cooperation between these nations requires a reassessment of U.S. policies and a more flexible approach to international relations.

The deep-rooted friendship and strategic partnership between Russia and North Korea are testament to their resilience and shared vision for the future. As both nations navigate the complexities of modern geopolitics, their alliance stands as a symbol of mutual support and cooperation. President Putin's visit to Pyongyang underscores the commitment to strengthening this partnership and addressing global challenges together.

In a world marked by shifting alliances and emerging power dynamics, the bond between Russia and North Korea is a beacon of steadfastness and shared purpose. Through continued collaboration and mutual respect, both nations are poised to achieve greater heights and contribute to a more balanced and just international order.

M A Hossain, political and defense analyst based in Bangladesh. He can be reached at: writetomahossain@gmail.com

   This article published at :

1. The Nation, Pak : 20 June, 24

2. Daily Observer, BD : 21 June, 24

3. Asian Age, BD : 21 June, 24

4. Weekly Blitz, BD : 20 June, 24

5. Pakistan Today, BD : 22 June,24

6. Daily Lead Pakistan, Pak : 21 June,24

7. The Pakistan Journal, Pak : 20 June, 24

How Digital Gambling is Threatening Bangladesh's Social Fabric

M A Hossain,

The rapid proliferation of digital technology has revolutionized various aspects of life, including entertainment and recreation. Among these changes is the rise of online betting, which has become a prevalent activity among young people in this subcontinent. While it offers the allure of easy money and excitement, online betting poses significant risks and challenges. In Bangladesh, the situation is increasingly alarming, affecting the social fabric and law and order.

Online betting has seen exponential growth in Bangladesh, driven by easy access to the internet and smartphones. On 13 June, the Director General of the National Telecommunication Monitoring Center (NTMC), Major General Ziaul Ahsan, presented horrific figures of online betting and illicit activities. He also mentioned that more than 575 online gambling sites are active in Bangladesh. These betting platforms, often hosted overseas, provide various forms of gambling, from sports betting to casino games. Young people, drawn by the promise of quick profits, are the most active participants. It is also evident that people from all walks of life are now engaged in such illicit gambling.

Despite the illegal status of gambling in Bangladesh, the lack of stringent enforcement allows these online platforms to operate relatively freely. As a result, the youth, who are often more tech-savvy, are increasingly drawn into this risky behavior. Social media and other digital marketing strategies further exacerbate the problem by targeting young individuals with enticing advertisements and promotions. The NTMC chief also stressed the need for public figures to avoid getting involved in the promotion of online gambling.

The rise of online betting has led to numerous social issues in Bangladesh. One of the most significant concerns is the impact on young people's mental health. The addictive nature of gambling can lead to severe psychological issues, including anxiety, depression, and compulsive behavior. Young bettors typically find themselves in a cycle of continuous betting, chasing losses, and accruing debt, which can have devastating consequences on their personal and family lives.

Moreover, online betting can lead to financial instability. Young individuals, often without a stable income, may resort to borrowing money or even engaging in illegal activities to fund their gambling habits. This financial strain not only affects the individuals but also places a burden on their families and the broader community. The dead end of this gambling habit is leading to suicides among individuals.

The widespread nature of online betting also poses significant challenges to law and order in Bangladesh. Illegal betting rings and unregulated online platforms frequently lead to an increase in criminal activities. There have been instances of match-fixing, money laundering, and other illicit activities associated with online gambling.

Law enforcement agencies face considerable challenges in tracking and regulating these activities due to the anonymity and global nature of the internet. The involvement of international betting syndicates further complicates enforcement efforts. Additionally, the lack of clear legal frameworks and resources to tackle cybercrime effectively leaves a significant gap in controlling the menace of online betting.

In response to growing concerns, the NTMC in Bangladesh has taken commendable steps to curb the spread of online betting. The NTMC has been instrumental in monitoring internet traffic and identifying illegal betting platforms. By collaborating with internet service providers and financial institutions, they could manage to block websites and freeze suspicious transactions related to online betting.

Furthermore, the NTMC chief has stressed the importance of launching awareness campaigns to educate the public, especially young people, about the risks and consequences of online gambling. These initiatives aim to create a more informed and cautious population, less likely to fall prey to the lure of online betting. Additionally, continuous efforts by joint forces, including law enforcement agencies, intelligence agencies, NTMC, and public administration, could make a noteworthy contribution to curbing this menace.

Addressing the issue of online betting requires a multi-faceted approach. The government needs to update and enforce stricter laws against online gambling. This includes closing legal loopholes that allow these platforms to operate and increasing penalties for those involved in illegal betting. Law enforcement agencies should be equipped with advanced tools and training to track and shut down online betting platforms. International cooperation is also essential to combat cross-border gambling syndicates.

Moreover, continuous efforts to educate the public about the dangers of online betting are crucial. Schools, universities, and community centers can play a vital role in these educational campaigns. Establishing support systems, such as counseling services and helplines, can help those struggling with gambling addiction. Providing resources for recovery can mitigate the social and psychological impacts of online betting.

In Bangladesh, gambling is a crime, and besides government action, which is crucial, every family also has a significant role to play. Families need to be vigilant and proactive in looking after their members, ensuring that no one is getting involved in gambling activities. It would not be wise to point fingers at the government alone; societal issues of this magnitude demand a collective effort. By fostering a culture of responsibility and awareness within households and communities, the fight against gambling can be more robust and effective. Families, educational institutions, and community organizations must work hand in hand with government agencies to eradicate the menace of gambling.

Online betting poses a significant threat to the all walks of people, especially the young generation in Bangladesh. It affects mental health, financial stability, and social harmony. The commendable efforts by organizations like the NTMC are a step in the right direction, but more comprehensive measures are needed. By implementing stronger legislation, enhancing enforcement, raising public awareness, and providing support to addicts, Bangladesh can mitigate the adverse effects of online betting and protect its future generation from this digital menace. The collective effort of the government, law enforcement, educational institutions, and the community is essential to address this pressing issue effectively.

M A Hossain, political and defense analyst based in Bangladesh. He can be reached at: writetomahossain@gmail.com

This article published at :

1. Daily Observer, BD : 15 June,24

2. Weekly Blitz, BD : 15 June, 24

3. South Asia Journal, NJ,USA : 15 June,24

4. Asian Age, BD : 22 June, 24

5. Good Morning Kashmir, Ind: 16 June,24

   

Ursula von der Leyen's Second Term

M A Hossain,

As the European Union (EU) navigates through a turbulent political landscape, Ursula von der Leyen, the incumbent President of the European Commission, is fervently working to secure a second term. This pursuit is particularly challenging given the recent EU parliamentary elections, where her party, the European People’s Party (EPP), emerged as the leading group but faces significant opposition from a surging far-right. Von der Leyen’s efforts highlight the intricate balance of power and the complexities of coalition-building in contemporary European politics.

Ursula von der Leyen’s immediate goal is to obtain the nomination for a second term from EU leaders. If successful, the subsequent challenge will be to garner the support of at least 361 Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) in the newly elected Parliament. Achieving this requires forging strategic alliances across a diverse array of political groups, a task laden with potential pitfalls and compromises.

On the night of the election results, von der Leyen indicated her intent to initially seek support from the socialists and liberals, who had backed her during her first term. However, the evolving composition of the Parliament suggests that she may need to extend her coalition-building efforts beyond these traditional allies.

According to provisional results, the EPP has secured approximately 26% of the seats in the European Parliament. When combined with the Socialists & Democrats and Renew Europe groups, these three blocs collectively command 407 seats. This number comfortably surpasses the 361-vote threshold needed for von der Leyen’s nomination. Nevertheless, turning this theoretical majority into a practical reality hinges on the intricate political negotiations and concessions that will unfold in the coming days and weeks.

One of the most significant challenges to von der Leyen’s ambitions is the marked rise in support for far-right parties across Europe. In several major EU economies, including France and Germany, right-wing factions have made substantial electoral gains, reflecting widespread voter discontent with traditional centrist parties.

In Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) suffered a severe setback, finishing in third place behind the conservative opposition and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). The AfD’s ascension to second place with around 16% of the votes underscores the growing appeal of far-right politics in Germany.

Meanwhile, in France, the right-wing National Rally (RN) party significantly outperformed President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party, prompting Macron to dissolve the National Assembly and call for a snap election. This dramatic shift in France’s political landscape further complicates von der Leyen’s task of building a stable majority in the European Parliament.

Von der Leyen’s strategy to form a “bastion against extremes from the left and from the right” underscores her commitment to maintaining a centrist coalition. However, this strategy necessitates a series of delicate balancing acts. For instance, seeking support from the Greens could alienate some conservative members within her own EPP, who oppose key Green Deal climate measures. The Greens’ backing could be crucial, but it comes with the risk of internal dissent within the EPP.

Alternatively, von der Leyen could seek support from the hard-right European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), led by Italy’s Giorgia Meloni. The ECR, expected to secure around 71 seats, has been vocal about prioritizing security, migration control, and European values. While their support could provide a numerical boost, it risks alienating the socialists and liberals, who are wary of aligning with hardline right-wing groups.

Despite these challenges, von der Leyen remains optimistic about the ability of centrist forces to hold their ground. “The center is holding,” she declared, emphasizing the responsibility of centrist parties to counter the rise of extremist factions. Her vision for the next term involves building a broad majority that is pro-European, pro-Ukraine, and committed to the rule of law.

This vision will require extensive negotiations and significant concessions. While support from centrist parties is crucial, von der Leyen will need to navigate the complex political landscape with great skill to secure a stable majority. The rise of far-right and far-left parties underscores the growing polarization within the EU, making the task of coalition-building more challenging than ever.

Von der Leyen’s quest for a second term as President of the European Commission is emblematic of the broader political shifts occurring within the European Union. The recent elections have highlighted a growing discontent with traditional centrist parties, as evidenced by the significant gains made by far-right factions in key member states. This discontent reflects broader societal concerns, including issues related to migration, economic inequality, and national sovereignty.

In response to these challenges, von der Leyen has vowed to “build a bastion against the extremes from the left and from the right.” Her commitment to a centrist, pro-European agenda underscores the importance of unity and stability within the EU. However, achieving this vision will require navigating a complex and often contentious political landscape.

Ursula von der Leyen’s efforts to secure a second term as President of the European Commission are set against a backdrop of significant political change within the EU. The rise of far-right parties and the growing polarization of European politics present formidable challenges to her ambitions. Von der Leyen’s ability to forge alliances across the political spectrum and maintain a centrist coalition will be critical in determining her success.

As the vote-counting continues and political negotiations intensify, the coming weeks will be crucial in shaping the future leadership of the European Commission. Von der Leyen’s commitment to a broad, centrist majority reflects the need for stability and unity within the EU. However, the path to achieving this vision is fraught with challenges, requiring careful negotiation and strategic compromises.

The outcome of these efforts will not only determine von der Leyen’s political future but will also have significant implications for the direction of the European Union in the years to come. The stakes are high, and the political landscape is more complex than ever, making the task of coalition-building a critical and delicate endeavor.

M A Hossain, political and defense analyst based in Bangladesh. He can be reached at: writetomahossain@gmail.com

This article published at :

1. The Nation, Pak : 13 June, 24

2. Weekly Blitz, BD : 11 june,24

3. Muslim Times, BD : 12 June, 24

4. The Arabian Post, UAE : 12 June, 24

5. Pakistan Today, Pak : 15 June, 24

6. Asian Age, BD : 15 June, 24

   

Ukraine's Peace Summit

M A Hossain, 

The upcoming peace summit in Switzerland, organized by Ukraine and supported by Switzerland, is being heralded as a critical juncture for achieving global peace and addressing the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia. While the intention behind the summit-fostering a genuine and lasting peace-is laudable, several critical issues suggest that the summit may fall short of its ambitious goals. These concerns include the unrealistic expectations set forth by Ukraine, potential geopolitical complications, and the practical challenges of implementing the proposed measures.

Ukraine’s peace formula, as presented by President Volodymyr Zelensky during the G20 summit in Indonesia, outlines a comprehensive plan for achieving peace. This plan includes the inadmissibility of nuclear weapons use, ensuring nuclear facility safety, guaranteeing global food security through free navigation in critical seas, and addressing humanitarian issues through the exchange of prisoners and the return of displaced people. While these objectives are undeniably important, the expectation that such a wide-ranging and idealistic plan can be agreed upon and implemented through a single summit is overly ambitious.

Achieving consensus among over 160 invited countries and institutions on such a complex and multifaceted plan is unlikely. The diversity of political, economic, and strategic interests among these participants means that reaching a unified stance will be exceptionally challenging. Furthermore, the historical precedent shows that peace processes often require prolonged negotiations and incremental progress rather than sweeping agreements reached in a single meeting.

The summit’s emphasis on upholding international law and the UN Charter is noble, but it overlooks the geopolitical complexities that frequently hinder the enforcement of these laws. The reality is that international law and the principles enshrined in the UN Charter are frequently subject to interpretation and manipulation by powerful states to serve their interests. The principle of sovereignty, a cornerstone of international law, is typically at odds with the geopolitical strategies of major powers, including those involved in the Ukraine-Russia conflict.

Moreover, the call for the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian territory as a precondition for peace is unlikely to be met with cooperation from Russia. Such an ultimatum, while morally justified, does not take into account the strategic and political calculus of the Kremlin. For Russia, the conflict in Ukraine is not merely about territorial control, but also about maintaining its sphere of influence and countering what it perceives as NATO encroachment. Therefore, expecting Russia to comply with such demands without significant concessions is unrealistic.

The specific measures proposed by Ukraine, such as ensuring global food security and the safety of nuclear facilities, present significant practical challenges. For instance, guaranteeing free navigation in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov would require not only diplomatic agreements but also robust mechanisms to enforce these agreements amidst ongoing hostilities. The presence of military forces and naval blockades in these regions complicates any efforts to secure free passage for commercial vessels.

Similarly, addressing humanitarian issues like the exchange of prisoners and the return of displaced people requires coordination and cooperation from all parties involved, including those who may have vested interests in maintaining the status quo. The process of identifying, locating, and safely returning displaced individuals, especially children, is fraught with logistical, legal, and political hurdles. The success of such initiatives depends on sustained engagement and trust-building, which cannot be achieved overnight.

Another critical concern is the potential for the summit to alienate key players whose cooperation is essential for any meaningful progress. The strong stance taken by Ukraine and its allies, while understandable, risks entrenching positions further. For instance, framing the peace process in terms of adherence to the UN Charter and international law might be perceived by Russia and its allies as a Western-centric approach that disregards their perspectives and security concerns.

Moreover, the role of influential powers like Saudi Arabia, while potentially beneficial, also adds layers of complexity. Saudi Arabia’s involvement could be seen as part of a broader geopolitical game, where the interests of Middle Eastern powers intersect with the dynamics of the Ukraine-Russia conflict. This could lead to further complications and divisions within the international community.

While the peace summit in Switzerland aims to bring about a comprehensive and lasting resolution to the conflict in Ukraine, the challenges and pitfalls associated with such an endeavor are significant. Unrealistic expectations, geopolitical complexities, practical implementation issues, and the risk of alienating key players all suggest that the summit may struggle to achieve its ambitious objectives. A more pragmatic approach, focusing on incremental progress and confidence-building measures, might be a more effective path toward lasting peace.

M A Hossain, political and defense analyst based in Bangladesh. He can be reached at: writetomahossain@gmail.com

This article published at :

1. Weekly Blitz, BD : 09 June, 24

2. The Nation, Pak : 10 June, 24

India and Bangladesh Embark on a New Journey in Bilateral Relations.

M A Hossain, 

The political landscape of South Asia is poised for a significant transformation with the resounding victory of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in India's 18th Lok Sabha elections. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's victory heralds a new chapter in India-Bangladesh relations, promising to deepen cooperation and address longstanding issues between the two neighbors.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s electoral triumph, securing a rare third consecutive term, is a testament to his enduring popularity and the trust the Indian populace has placed in his leadership. This victory is crucial not only for India's domestic policy but also for its international relations, especially with neighboring countries like Bangladesh. Modi’s leadership has been marked by a proactive approach to regional diplomacy, with a particular focus on fostering stronger ties with South Asian countries. His victory is expected to reinforce and build upon the existing framework of cooperation with Bangladesh.

Despite the victory, the BJP's relatively reduced majority in the Lok Sabha could necessitate a greater emphasis on maintaining and enhancing relationships with neighboring countries. A more balanced power dynamic within India might encourage the Modi administration to seek stronger alliances and support from its neighbors to ensure regional stability and economic growth. This scenario bodes well for Bangladesh, which has enjoyed a warm relationship with India under Modi's previous terms.

The Hasina-Modi era has seen substantial progress in several key areas of India-Bangladesh relations. While a comprehensive Teesta Water Sharing Agreement remains elusive, ongoing discussions and a mutual commitment to resolving this issue have highlighted the dedication of both leaders. Trade and connectivity have been significantly enhanced, with initiatives such as the Maitree Express and the opening of new border haats fostering economic cooperation and people-to-people contact. Security cooperation has been another hallmark of this period, with both countries working closely on counterterrorism efforts through intelligence sharing and joint operations. In the realm of power and energy, cross-border electricity transmission and joint ventures in power projects have marked significant achievements, bolstering Bangladesh's energy security. Cultural and people-to-people ties have also flourished, with numerous cultural exchanges and educational collaborations, including joint celebrations of historical events and observances like International Mother Language Day, further strengthening the bond between the two nations.

The government of Bangladesh, led by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, has articulated several key expectations from the renewed Modi administration. Foremost among these is the pressing issue of water sharing, particularly concerning the Teesta River, which remains a critical concern for Dhaka. Ensuring equitable distribution of water resources is vital for Bangladesh's agriculture and livelihoods. Additionally, Dhaka emphasizes the need for cooperation in reducing incidents of border killings and strengthening border security to maintain peace and security along the shared frontier. Furthermore, Bangladesh seeks continued collaboration in fugitive exchanges and extradition to address criminal threats effectively and uphold justice.

Moreover, Bangladesh underscores the importance of addressing the trade imbalance and seeks enhanced access to Indian markets for its goods. This step would not only boost Bangladesh's economy but also contribute to reducing the trade deficit between the two nations. Beyond bilateral issues, Bangladesh looks to India for support in international forums, particularly on pressing global matters such as climate change, the Rohingya refugee crisis, and economic development. India's backing on these issues could significantly enhance Bangladesh's position on the global stage and strengthen the partnership between the two countries.

In reciprocation, India also has its own set of expectations from Bangladesh, reflecting the mutual nature of their relationship. Foremost among these is the crucial need for continued counterterrorism cooperation, a cornerstone of regional security. India highly values Bangladesh’s collaboration in combating terrorism and extremism, recognizing it as vital for maintaining peace and stability. Enhanced intelligence sharing and joint counterterrorism efforts are paramount in addressing common threats effectively. 

Additionally, India seeks to bolster economic and trade collaboration with Bangladesh, emphasizing infrastructural development and investment opportunities. Greater connectivity projects, encompassing road, rail, and port links, hold the potential to stimulate economic growth and deepen bilateral ties. Furthermore, as India assumes a more assertive role in regional and global affairs, it may look to Bangladesh for geopolitical support on critical matters such as maritime security in the Bay of Bengal and countering external influences. By aligning their interests and working together on these fronts, India and Bangladesh can further strengthen their partnership and contribute to regional stability and prosperity.

Building and maintaining mutual political trust is fundamental to the success of India-Bangladesh relations. Both nations must continue to engage in high-level dialogues and diplomatic initiatives to address contentious issues and explore areas of mutual benefit. Confidence-building measures, such as cultural exchanges, people-to-people contact, and joint ventures in various sectors, can further solidify this trust.

Prime Minister Modi’s recent electoral success offers a unique opportunity to reassert and revitalize bilateral ties. Both countries have a shared history, cultural connections, and common interests that serve as a strong foundation for a collaborative future. Strengthening political trust will enable both nations to navigate challenges and capitalize on opportunities, fostering a more prosperous and peaceful region.

The third term of Prime Minister Narendra Modi marks a significant juncture for India-Bangladesh relations. With a focus on addressing mutual concerns and enhancing cooperation, both countries are poised to enter a new era of bilateral ties. The expectations from Dhaka and New Delhi are clear, and the potential for a strengthened partnership is immense. By working together on critical issues such as water sharing, border security, trade, and regional stability, India and Bangladesh can pave the way for a future characterized by mutual respect, trust, and shared prosperity. As both nations move forward, the commitment to maintaining and enhancing this vital relationship will be crucial for the well-being of their people and the stability of the South Asian region.

M A Hossain, political and defense analyst based in Bangladesh. He can be reached at: writetomahossain@gmail.com

This article published at :

1. The Asian Age, BD : 07 June, 24

2. South Asia Monitor, India : 09 June, 24

3. Indian Defence Review, New Delhi : 10 June, 24

Who Is the Killer- Parents or the State?

M A Hossain, 

On May 17, 2024, a tragic and heart-wrenching incident unfolded in Moulvibazar's Sreemangal upazila. A two-year-old girl named  Faria Jannat Mili was poisoned, leading to her untimely death. Subsequently, the police arrested her parents,  who initially  confessed to their involvement in this harrowing act. A similar incident happened on November 28, 2020, when a 17-day-old daughter named Sohana was murdered by her parents in Bagerhat, Bangladesh. The parents were very poor, and the infant was  suffering from severe cardiac and kidney problems.In both the cases, the media swiftly condemned  the parents, portraying them as criminals. However, this case is far more complex than it appears on the surface.

Faria’s parents are  impoverished farmers, and their daughter was born with severe physical  disabilities. They struggled immensely to care for her, financially and emotionally. This heartbreaking decision wasn't made in a vacuum; it was born out of  sheer desperation and an overwhelming sense of helplessness. The actions of Faria's and Sohana's parents, though criminal by law, reflect a deeper societal issue that needs addressing.

Consider the broader context of their situation. The case is now sub judice, but it raises poignant questions about our society’s responsibilities. Instances such as farmers in India setting themselves on fire or a French student self-immolating highlight that  extreme actions often stem from extreme despair. These acts are legally classified as crimes, yet they carry a message that demands our attention. What kind of life would Faria have had if she survived? Would she have received health insurance coverage? How much do we, as a society, genuinely care about the welfare of the vulnerable among us?

The parents were faced  with insurmountable medical expenses and an uncertain future for their daughter. How long could they sustain the immense financial and emotional burden? While some may view their decision as an unforgivable crime, it’s essential to understand that it’s also a reflection of our collective failure as a society. The parents did what they believed was best in their circumstances, driven by love and desperation. In a similar vein, a family in  Austria fought a 27-year-long legal battle to disconnect their daughter from life support, believing it to be an act of compassion.

We must approach this case with empathy and refrain from simply labeling the parents as criminals. Do not get me wrong; neither am I abetting the crime nor advocating for such a heinous act. The root of such tragic actions often lies in a lack of social security and support. From a religious standpoint, taking a life is undeniably a grave sin, and the parents will be held accountable for their actions in the eyes of their faith. However, this should also prompt us to reflect on our societal and moral values. Are we collectively failing those in desperate need? 

Humans are not born criminals; it is social discrimination, powerlessness, and desperation that can drive them to such extremes. While the government bears the responsibility of ensuring good governance and social security, we too have a duty to uphold social values and support each other. Without this, wealth and academic excellence will be meaningless in a society lacking compassion and humanity. 

Advocate Towhida Khondker, Director of Bangladesh National Woman Lawyers Association (BNWLA), who pointed out that in spite of many acts and policies; there is little consciousness about child rights among the stakeholders as well as the law enforcement agencies, government sections, parents, and people of the society. She further added that, most of the countrymen are not acquainted with what children rights demand. Moreover, growing needs, financial desires, long absences of a spouse for work, social expectations effect family bonding and children is easy target of that hurdle.(Asia Times,2016)

We must create an environment where parents are never driven to such desperate measures. While the government has taken steps to reduce social stigma and increase awareness, incidents like this one indicate that much more needs to be done. We need a stronger social safety net to support those in dire situations.

As Khalil Gibran profoundly stated, “They come through you but not from you, And though they are with you — yet they belong not to you.” This quote reminds us that while children are part of our lives, they are not our possessions. Society must ensure that every child, regardless of their circumstances, is valued and supported. Let this tragedy be a wake-up call. We must enhance our social safety nets, extend compassion, and support those struggling among us. Only then can we hope to prevent such heart-wrenching incidents from recurring.

M A Hossain, political and defense analyst based in Bangladesh. He can be reached at: writetomahossain@gmail.com

This article published at :

1. The Asian Age, BD : 05 June, 24

Imran Khan's Acquittal Exposes The USA's Failed Plot.

M A Hossain,

In a dramatic turn of events, the Islamabad High Court (IHC) on June 3 acquitted the founder of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), Imran Khan, and former foreign minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi in the much-hyped cipher case while terminating their imprisonment sentences. The former prime minister has been acquitted of all charges in another two cases related to long march vandalism, leaving the nation in shock and raising questions about the role of external forces in his ousting. Now, Pakistan can take pride in its independent judiciary and serve as an example for its neighbors to follow. This verdict is a testament to the country's sovereignty and the upholding of national dignity.

The ousting of Imran Khan from power was not merely a domestic affair. Leaked documents suggest that the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) had a vested interest in destabilizing Khan’s government. Khan's stance on regional issues, including his opposition to certain CIA-backed operations, made him a target. The agency allegedly orchestrated a campaign to undermine his leadership through false corruption allegations, painting him as a villain for Pakistan’s economy. Khan’s visit to Russia shortly before Russia's invasion of Ukraine further disappointed the West, leading to his removal. This incident underscores the lengths to which external forces might go to manipulate political outcomes in other sovereign nations. The Pakistani people were left questioning the integrity of their political system, and Khan’s removal was seen as a direct affront to the country’s autonomy.

The Pakistani judiciary’s handling of Imran Khan’s case stands as a testament to its independence. Despite external pressures, the court meticulously examined the evidence, ensuring a fair trial. The verdict sends a powerful message: justice prevails over political maneuvering. This decision reaffirms the judiciary’s commitment to upholding the rule of law, demonstrating that no external or internal agency can undermine judicial power. The people of Pakistan now have renewed faith that justice, not political gamesmanship, will guide national proceedings. This moment is pivotal for Pakistan's legal system, showcasing its ability to resist external influences and operate impartially, ultimately strengthening the country’s democratic framework.

Comparing Imran Khan’s trial to former President Donald Trump’s trial proceedings in the United States reveals stark contrasts. While Khan’s case followed due process, the Trump trial faced criticism for its perceived bias and political motivations. The term “kangaroo court” gained traction, highlighting the flaws in the American judicial system. The latest conviction of Trump shocked people worldwide, illustrating how the USA's judiciary could be perceived as turning into a kangaroo court. Many viewed the motives behind this conviction as an attempt to bar Trump from the presidential race, suggesting the whole judicial proceeding was politically motivated and biased. This comparison highlights the discrepancies in judicial practices between the two nations and serves as a reminder of the necessity for legal systems to operate without political interference.

From history, it is evident that the supremacy of the West, especially the USA, is descending, resembling the fall of the USSR. Symptoms are already exposing themselves. After the USSR's defeat in Afghanistan, its economy and military power were questioned. Federal states lost hope and aspired to be independent. Moreover, the Chernobyl disaster explicitly exposed the disarray of internal management. Ominous signs are already sighted in the USA during the Covid-19 pandemic. The pandemic has exposed the mismanagement of the USA's internal system. Another debacle for the USA and its Western allies in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria has caused tremendous economic setbacks for the USA. Internal political rifts in the USA are widening more than ever before. The allies of the USA now contradict on many issues, such as arbitrary military or economic punitive measures or tilting towards Russia and China.

Beyond Khan’s acquittal, this case reflects broader geopolitical shifts. The USA’s influence in South Asia is waning. Traditional power centers are recalibrating as China and Russia assert themselves. Economic ties, regional alliances, and strategic interests are evolving. Imran Khan’s exoneration serves as a litmus test for the changing dynamics, signaling a shift away from Western dominance. The Pakistani establishment must feel the pulse of shifting political dynamics in this region. Their recalibrated foreign policy could bring stability in domestic and international affairs. As Pakistan and other South Asian countries reorient their alliances and strategies, the balance of power in the region is shifting. This change underscores the decline of Western influence and the rise of new geopolitical players, emphasizing the importance of regional self-determination and resilience against external pressures.

In conclusion, Imran Khan’s acquittal reverberates far beyond Pakistan’s borders. It symbolizes the struggle for judicial independence, exposes external interference, and mirrors the global realignment of power. As the world watches, it becomes evident that the old order is giving way to new players, reshaping the geopolitical landscape. This verdict not only vindicates Khan but also serves as a beacon for nations striving to maintain their sovereignty in the face of external manipulation. It marks a pivotal moment for Pakistan, demonstrating its judiciary's strength and the country's resilience against foreign intervention. The broader implications of this acquittal signal a transformative period in global politics, where new alliances are forged, and traditional power structures are challenged. As these dynamics continue to evolve, the world must pay close attention to the emerging balance of power and the growing assertion of national sovereignty across the globe.

M A Hossain, political and defense analyst based in Bangladesh. He can be reached at: writetomahossain@gmail.com

This article published at :

1. The Arabian Post, UAE : 05 June, 24

2. Daily Excelsior, J&K: 07 June, 24

3. The North Lines, India : 07 June, 24

4. Weekly Blitz, BD : 05 June, 24

5. The Asian Age, BD : 08 June, 24