The creation of 'Koryo Union' is the only peaceful solution in the Korean Peninsula!-[Edited]

M A Hossain

Finally the international community seems to get its sense back on the issue of resolving the existing political standoff in Korean Peninsula. In the past,I have repeatedly said undue pressure and illogical sanctions on the Democratic People's Republic of Korea(DPRK) would bring counter productive result. As a defence analyst, I can clearly understand the sentiment of a patriotic leader like Marshal Kim Jong Un. First of all let me clarify,to me Korean people, be it the peoples of the Republic of Korea,or the peoples of DPR Korea are friends. Bangladesh has historic relations both the Koreas. After the historic summit between the US President Donald Trump and Marshal Kim Jong Un, which I am seeing as a summit of beginning of a new era of prosperity and peace in the Korean Peninsula. This article is written with an honest desire of offering a mutually respectable formula to the leaders of both the Koreas.

Ever since division of Korea in 1950,Republic of Korea (ROK) is talking about unification of Korea,while DPRK is demanding re-unification of Korea. This is the major obstacle in finding a lasting peace formula. I don't think the people of DPRK would go under the administration of Seoul, while the people of ROK won't accept the leadership of Pyongyang. In my judgement Korean people definitely should be brought under a single umbrella keeping two political system for two of the Koreas. Meaning, a 'Koryo Union' comprising Republic of Korea and DPR Korea is the only workable solution. Under the Koryo Union, there will be a common military force to ensure sovereignty of both the Korea as well assure peaceful coexistence with the neighbouring countries like Japan, China and beyond.

Republic of Korea can utilize the huge skilled and semi skilled manpower of DPR Korea ;while Pyongyang can explore its massive mineral and natural resources with the technical collaboration of China, Japan and ROK which definitely would transform DPRK into a developed nation within the span of maximum 7-8 years. On the other hand, ROK can establish 'Koryo Union Special Economic Zone' both in ROK and DPRK under mutually agreeable proportion. The Koryo Union can have common airline, common shipping agency and even common currency. This common currency would be an additional one, keeping the existing currencies of both Koreas in circulation. While DPRK's Won and ROK's Won would be a local currency while currency of the Koryo Union would emerge as a international currency. In this case we can cite the example of Chinese Yuan and Foreign Exchange Certificate (FEC) or the Britain's model. While being in EU both British Pound and EU's EURO are in circulation in Britain. For  many years existence the two currencies never create any problem in the UK.

Creation of the Koryo Union will help both the member countries of the union in reducing their defence budget. Meaning both side will have fund available for socio-economic development. Currently DPRK has approximately 22 million members in the Korean Peoples Army (KPA).They are well trained, fully equipped and above all absolutely dedicated to their motherland. On the other hand Republic of Korea has around 300 thousand members in his army who to are equally capable as the KPA members. But defence expenditure of the ROK is much higher. Because they also have to bear the burden of paying costs to approximately 14 thousand soldiers from US defence forces. In addition to this, ROK are rather compelled in buying military equipments worth billions of dollar each year. Formation of the Koryo Union will most certainly relieve ROK from this huge expenditure. Not only that! Because of the tension in the Korean peninsula, countries like Japan even are compelled in spending billions of dollar in defence sector every year. Should there be no such burden, countries like Japan or ROK would be most beneficiaries.

Now the main question, which may even jeopardise the much expected peace process is, United States and Western country's undue demand of extermination of nuclear weapons of DPRK. I personally don't believe, Marshal Kim Jong Un is going to accept this. DPRK is already a nuclear power and at best they can suspend further development of nuclear weapon. Accepting this fact, if ROK and the US will sit with DPRK, definitely can anticipate a very pleasant outcome.

Congratulation to the inhabitants of the Koryo Union. 

This article  published at:
1.The Seoul Times, Seoul, S.Korea :06 August 2018

Superpower conflict : World order is at stake!

M A Hossain

After the Cold-War era, America became the lone Superpower in the world. Over the period of time, advancement of technology and turbulent geo-politics are bringing the threat of Superpower conflict back. American's jingoistic relations with other nations, China and Russia began to reassert their regional and global influence - display of military strength are stoking to stimuli for reordering of global power.

Superpower conflict is becoming a reality on the top of global agenda. The relative decline of US influence, rising of China as America's leading competitor, Russia's desire for greater role in global politics are made America's supremacy at stake. Now President Donald Trump has the only one option to make America great again. He needs to bug all nuclear weapon rich nations, makes turmoil in global politics and economy - and bring them in a bilateral negotiation. Mr. Trump needs to exhibit the world community that things happen the way America desires. US already has opened number of fronts- North Korea(denuclearization), China(trade war), Iran(JCPOA), Jerusalem(US Embassy relocation), G-7(tariff), Russia(presidential election meddling). All these bargaining issues need to be solved by the US to remain lone Superpower. In case of North Korea and China, Mr. Trump is partially successful. North Korea has agreed on denuclearization proposal and US-China trade war could put negative impact on Chinese fastest growing economic growth. Rest of the issues are in progress by the Trump's think tanks targeting next Presidential election to win.

President Trump must have an idea about the retaliation of aggrieved nations affected by his thuggish actions. Tension between Iran and US have been rising since May 2018 when Trump announced he was withdrawing from the nuclear deal signed by Tehran and major World power to curb Iran's nuclear power ambitions. Trump's decision already has put significant pressure on the Iranian economy. Now Tehran threatened to bloc the Strait of Hormuz which is the key passageway for 20% of traded oil world wide. Tehran also is expected to involve in massive military exercise in the Persian Gulf.

According to the analysis of several US strategic organizations - invoked to focus on strategic Superpower competition with China and Russia dropping down counter terrorism from top priority. Amid the mounting tension in South China Sea and trade war between  the US-China, Beijing has suggested the ASEAN allies to carry out oil and gas exploration in the Western Pacific and South China Sea but again proposed to exclude US interference in the waters of such activities. Taiwan invasion and Spratly island Campaign is compelling the US military to rethink a war with China. As a defense analyst, I think the United States already has been late to response China's aggressive ambitions in Indo-Pacific region. Since the 1996-97 Taiwan strait missile crisis, China could reach the capability of destroying Taiwan's air base with multi-layered saturation attack using short range ballistic missile(SRBM). However, today China also is capable of striking Kadena air base in Okinawa. This will compel US aircraft to fly from long distance to engage Chinese forces. China has deployed half of its fighting fleet with fourth generation fighters against Taiwan Campaign. It is very difficult task to operate in and near Chinese air space for US force because of Chinese surface to air  missile(SAM) system and early warning aircraft. US is superior to China for precision weapons and high-energy laser system to dazzle Chinese satellite's optical sensors to jam communication satellites. America also is superior to second-strike nuclear capability in the face of first-strike with numerical warheads advantage of 13 to one against China and beyond. At present China has developed robust control over the horizon intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance(ISR) capabilities which include military imaging satellite. Along with ASBM threat the US should consider the increased sophistication of Chinese submarine's launching capacity of intercontinental ballistic missile loaded nuclear warhead , cruise missile and torpedoes.

Though Russia has limited capabilities outside nuclear weapon and UNSC membership. It still enjoys the power to disrupt and reconfigure the global politics. Another significant factor is Russia's strategic geographical location, which makes it an indispensable player in both Asia and Middle East especially Ukraine and Syria. At present, Russia is a energy Superpower.

In my personal opinion, the military strategy dictates that the US President will give more emphasis on strong political - military relations with Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia to facilitate uninterrupted logistic supply during war time in the Asia-Pacific Theatre . Although governments of South Asian nations are widening diplomatic relations with Trump administration day by day. At this moment, Mr. Trump is not going to involve in a big tussle with Russia. Day by bay US is isolated  from its allies and the rest of the world. Now it has to be seen how America will face the upcoming challenges in geo-politics with China and foe-allies.

Trade war: A Thucydides Trap!

M A Hossain

Recently, the US President Donald Trump has taken a step to reduce trade deficit and has made turbulent global economy and politics. President Trump has imposed tariff of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminium which has justified on the basis of national security and huge trade deficit in goods import to US. US has 375 billion trade deficit with China which has crossed the previous record. Trump said that US already has lost in trade war with China. Just because of importing Chinese products, 60 thousand American factories got to shut down and 6 million Americans became jobless. Now Trump is using his Presidential special power, section -232 of Trade Expansion Act-1962 since after Ronald Regan.

During the presidential campaign,  Donald Trump gave a clear indication of reducing trade deficit with other countries and made husting of 'Make America Great Again'. Just after sworn as president, he is fulfilling his promise to adopt a more protectionist approach to put 'America First' policy on trade which is spurring retaliatory measures by friends and foes of US. Trump has withdrawn the US from the Trans Pacific Partnership(TPP), North American Free Trade Agreement(NAFTA) and renegotiated its free trade agreement with South Korea. To protect the US interest, Trump resorted to import substitution policy. Tariff will make the imported goods more expensive for American consumers and business to buy. That will ramp up production of those goods in American industries to meet local demand. As a result it will create more jobs and will decline the graph of trade deficit.

Initially, Mr. Trump actions are motivated by pure politics and he has made it in reality. US could reduce its world trade deficit. Even US-China trade deficit has reduced 11.5% as on march 2018. The manufacturing industries became vibrant and it created 224 thousands of new jobs in US market.

Trump has opened number of fronts - Iran(JCPOA), China (trade), Jerusalem(US Embassy relocation), North Korea(denuclearization) and G-7(tariff). It is very well clear that all the fronts are his bargaining issues. And this trade war is nothing but to reduce Chinese dominance around the world. US President is well aware of China's vision "Made-in-China" by 2025. Many countries were lured by Chinese cheap products and huge investment. Over the period of decades, those nations became captive by China and started controlling the politics and national economy. And Beijing already has signalled it won't accept major change to its "Made-in-China" blueprint. Trump sees this escalating trade war with Beijing and the rest of the world, as an effort to tip the balance before it is too late and bring China into Thucydides Trap. But it also true, America's trade imbalance didn't occur overnight. Now if the balance needs to be readjusted it will take many years - perhaps decades - for this to happen.

China is much more dependent on US to export than any other country. World trade contributes 37% to China's GDP where US is 27%. Trump is taking chance with China to put tremendous pressure on Chinese economic growth. US has complained of 150 billion dollar on intellectual property right. Mr. Trump wants to reduce its bilateral trade surplus with the US by 100 billion dollar which he demands to do by buying same worth of US oil or gas.

Washington is more aggressive and offensive in the trade war while Beijing is being seen reactive, defensive and reciprocal. In my personal opinion, Beijing wants to avoid the Thucydides Trap. There is no reason to believe that both Washington and Beijing are interested to engage military conflict. What is unknown at this time is how long it will take two leaders in negotiating table for mutual beneficial trading partnership and at what cost for both countries.


This article also published at:
1.Review Nepal, Kathmandu,Nepal: 02August 2018

Roads are becoming death trap?

M A Hossain

Princess Diana, was died in a road accident which was much hyped pathetic incident around the world. It was rumoured that MI-6(state intelligence agency) was behind that plot. We, the human[inhuman] beings are sole responsible for any disaster in our planet. No sensible person even can bring a single example that except mankind, other creatures [natural or artificial] are the right cause of any such disaster, be it climate change, earth quack, flood, HIV or road accident, vandalism, social insecurity and violation of human right. We can't deny that we have come to earth not to take only but also to discharge some responsibilities. I am penning such a burning issue which makes our subconscious vocal and need a sustainable solution.

To escape sexual harassment, a female garment worker, Sheuli Begum jumped from a running bus and crushed to death under the wheel of another bus following. This pathetic incident took place at Tangail district in Bangladesh where people were uproared in recent past of similar  incident with a varsity student-cum- NGO female worker. Another bright life, Payel was murdered by staffs of a passenger bus. Instead of helping, the perpetrators jettisoned injured Payel to die and dumped his body in a road side ditch. There are thousands of horrendous and heinous examples in our memory. Accident Research Institute (ARI)  from Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology(BUET) and World Bank's statistics have raised deep concern about the facts and figures of road accident in Bangladesh. Every year, approximately 12,000 people are killed in road accident and more than 35,000 people are injured, many disabled for life. World Bank has suggested Bangladesh to reduce 50 percent road accident for achieving Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs). Annually, Bangladesh has to bear damage of 40,000 crore of Taka for road accident. This decrepitude transportation scenario must be brought under strict monitoring by the authorities.

This transport workers are not alien rather they are very much part and parcel of our society. Government's ineffectiveness, in capabilities, and corruption are the main reasons to put mass transport facilities into private sectors. To be very candid, no driver wants to kill his/her passengers. But it is the rogue system and our negligence which  kill or led to be killed our people in road accident. The high growth in urbanization and motorization can be identified as key factors to the road accident. The road system are also experiencing greater congestion, physical deterioration, and safety problem. Law enforcing agencies (Specially traffic department) have a crucial role to play in identifying and holding accountable for reckless driving, over speeding, inappropriate overtaking, over loaded vehicle, variety of vehicle characteristics and defects in vehicle. Road and Transport authority must issue the licence to the skilled drivers only. In its response, they must conduct driving and road etiquette training round the year. Enforcement and sanctions of traffic laws by the law enforcing agencies and Road Transport authority can drastically reduce the figure of road accident. No law enforcement staffs are to be allowed owning and operating transport business.   

As a citizen, we too have some responsibilities to improve this situation. While travelling, we all should respect and ensure the traffic rules. We must not allow any driver(public or private) to break any traffic law. As a sensible person, we must follow the road etiquette and make awareness initiatives to the society as well as to our children.

Above all, our political 'honest intention' can change the total crisis. Maximum transport owners are political leaders or politically affiliated. Accused political person must be accountable to his/her party's head and party should take stern action against him/her after inquiry. Political parties must be prompt to facilitate proper implementation of rule of law against the perpetrators. No leader[affiliated with transport worker's politics] should be allowed to remarks irresponsibly on road accident by flashing his dirty teeth.

Indeed it is possible to significantly reduce the figure of road accident by implementing a effective and coordinated safty policy and action which required significant improvement in relevant sectors and improvement of public awareness program. Every life is valuable and accountable to his/her near and dear one, be it Shajahan Khan(lawmaker), Payel(student), Sheuli(worker), Tareq Masud(creative personnel) or 40 teenagers(our children) from Sitakundu.