How far is Pakistan to Afghanistan?

M A Hossain, 

Pakistan has been suffering from terrorism for the last three decades. Due to its strategic position, Pakistan became a centre stage of terrorist activities. The menace of terrorism has adversely affected the social fabric, political structures, Institutions and economic growth of Pakistan. Following the Taliban takeover in neighbouring Afghanistan, this incipient Terrorism has destabilized domestic politics and predisposed Pakistan to an imminent Civil War.

Pakistan was created on the basis of the precepts of the Islamic religion in 1947. Oddly enough, Pakistan was eventually not ruled by the fundamental causes of its formation, rather the political power was transgressed into the grip of a bureaucratic class and inevitably, the people became frustrated and changed their territory, shape, and strength in 1971.  During the 1980s, President Zia Ul Haq tried to implement the Rule of Islam and many religious Institutions developed in the society. While this stride of President Haq was unfailingly a people-pleaser, it helped the various extremist groups like the Taliban or Al-Qaeda(AQ) to perpetuate their roots in Pakistan. 

In the era of the Cold War, the Soviet Union intervened in Afghanistan in 1979 predominantly to disseminate communist ideology. The US and her Western allies utilized Pakistan as the supreme logistic channel for the Taliban resistance to counter the ideological conflict. The military aid from Pakistan, the US, and financial backing from Arab countries enabled Afghans to drive the USSR out of Afghanistan in 1989.  AQ and Taliban possess the same ideology.

After the 9/11 attack, the US accosted AQ of this heinous act of aggression, and in retaliation attacked Afghanistan in 2001.  Taliban are 46% Pashtun of the Afghan 35 million whereas the same tribes are 15% of Pakistani 215 million and formed its offshoot Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan(TTP) in Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA) in Pakistan. Some of those TTP leaders had previously fought against the USSR in Afghanistan and took control of most of the FATA. TTP wanted to fight against the US in Afghanistan and also asked the Pakistan government to discontinue her support to the US. In response, the Pakistani government allied with the US on the "War on Terror" campaign.

The landscape of terrorism in Pakistan might have been changed after the Siege of Lal Masjid in July 2007.  A total of 154 died, mostly women and children. Immediately, AQ declared war against the Pakistani Government and its security agencies. Before the Lal Masjid incident, AQ and TTP considered Pakistan as a buffer state in this region.

To overcome the threat of terrorism, the Government of Pakistan launched a military operation "Operation Rah-e-Haq" against TTP in the Swat district in 2007. This operation continued in phase -2 and phase 3 consecutively in 2008 and 2009.  Another military operation "Zarb-e-Azb" was launched in its territory near the Pakistan-Afghanistan border in June 2014.

Pakistan got itself intertwined in the war in Afghanistan. Besides involvement in this war, Pakistan was also plagued by ethnic and sectarian conflicts among different factions and separatist nationalistic movements as another source of terrorism.

Pakistani newspaper "Dawn News" reported that the Pakistan economy suffered a total loss of USD 126.79 billion since 2001 due to the war on terror. According to the report by Brown University's Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs, 23,372 Pakistani civilians and 8,832 Pakistani security personnel were killed, directly or indirectly, in the war on terror. Ex-Premier Imran Khan lambasted the "War on Terror" as America's war, where Pakistan was dragged into it and paid a high price of losing over 80,000 soldiers and civilians as well as billions of dollars in infrastructural damage. Approximately 150 thousand security personnel are deployed in Swat, Malakand, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa regions for counter-terrorism operations, but it costs billions of dollars from Pakistan's exchequer.

The "War on Terror" has exasperated the different militant and extremist groups in Pakistan. It created difficulties for the Pakistan army and police to manage the law and order situation. Pakistan does not have the luxury of requiring resources available to guard the Pak-Afghan border, which offers a very difficult terrain to control. The unmanned army drone strikes killed and maimed thousands of innocent civilians. Military operations in the name of the "War on Terror" against their own people have infuriated people. Besides this, corruption, injustice, and intervention of the military establishment in politics irk the society in score to go for alternatives.  TTP offered prompt justice and better governance, which gained popularity among the tribal people. Moreover, military operations made approximately 4 million Internally Displaced Persons (IDP).

Terrorism, conflict, and violence are destroying both the physical and human capital of Pakistan. It often resulted in the collapse of health and educational infrastructure. Terrorism and political turmoil affected the inflows of FDI, economic growth, domestic investment, and tourism and increase the unemployment crisis.

The Pakistani rupee is one of the weakest trade currencies in the world. Present rising utility costs, food prices and potential hikes in interest rates have brought an imbroglio in politics.

Moreover, the volatile geopolitical situations and growing convergence between China and Pakistan cast a shadow over Washington's approach towards Islamabad. Now, its somersault policy with superpowers has caused severe detriment to common people that have diverted their support from the government to the Islamic fundamentalist.

Pakistan is already submerged in the quicksand of TTP/AQ the way the USA rolled back from Afghanistan. Survival from the assassination attempt of Imran Khan has saved Pakistan and delayed the civil war. In my opinion, militant groups do not trust the Pakistani government and people do not agree to carry the burden of unsustainable military expenditure in the name of security. The prediction of civil war in Pakistan seems more imminent, and the takeover of Pakistan (or partial territory) by Islamic fundamentalists would be the xerox scenario of Afghanistan 2.0.

This article published at :

1. Daily Asian Age, BD:22Nov22.

2. South Asia Journal, NJ,USA:23Nov22

3. Modern Ghana, Ghana :23Nov22

4. Review Nepal, Kathmandu :23Nov22

5. Daily Observer, BD :26Nov22

Al-Qaeda, Global terrorism and threat to democracy

M A Hossain, 

Long ago, on one fine autumn afternoon, my friends and I were discussing which one of our friends who had escaped the get-together in that café to penalize. An army general sitting next to us was intrigued by our excitement and dragged his chair closer to us, bringing his vaporized coffee mug.

With very friendly interaction he advised us his theory “channelize, canalize and penalize” as a solution. Two decades of my hawkish eye on the Islamic extremist movement, I find the general’s theory appropriate here.

After World War II, the dollar became the strongest and only international trade currency. In the early 1990s, the world started a reorientation that strengthened the dominance of the Western capitalist economic system, supplanted the primacy of the nation-state with transnational corporations and organizations and eroded local cultures and traditions through Western culture.

The Western nations have enjoyed supremacy in the military and economy and they have been ferrying their capitalistic and democratic ideologies around the world, which are consumerist and materialistic in nature.

Now, Western nations have reached the peak of their vertex in terms of lifestyle, consumerism and prosperity. This creates an ideological vacuum and people have become frustrated. We have found widespread cases of suicide and mass shootings in Western societies, which are flagrant examples of this claim. An Islamic ideology is starting to fill the void.

I will dwell upon one jihadist organization, al-Qaeda (AQ) which has spectacularly gained its capabilities in acting as a transnational militant organization. During my research, I find, interestingly, it is the AQ that lays down the gauntlet for the United States on the battlefield.

 AQ founder Abdullah Azzam first accentuated global jihad among all militant organizations. Before that, various Islamic extremist organizations fought for sharia (Islamic rule) sporadically and locally. AQ members around the world gathered in Afghanistan to fight against Soviet occupiers.

In 1989, after the death of Azzam, Osama bin Laden took the helm of AQ. He envisioned his global jihad as “striking the head of the snake” in which the head was America. He wanted to bring the US into a death trap and by compelling US troops to be deployed globally.

AQ carried out a number of attacks on US targets around the world to allure America into war. Laden struck the center of gravity in America on the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks, which changed the landscape of global terrorism. After the attack on the Twin Towers, Laden expected US troops in Afghanistan, Somalia, Syria and Libya to achieve an asymmetric war of attrition.

Even the Bush and Obama administrations were unaware that the war on terror was nothing but a booby trap. America lost the war in Somalia, Libya, Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan. That is how the theory “channelize, canalize and penalize” works.

American political scientist Samuel Huntington asserted in his book The Clash of Civilizations that the future holds a series of clashes between “the West and the rest” and envisioned religion as “perhaps the central force that motivates and mobilizes people.”

AQ wanted the US military to use unilateral military action against Muslim countries, which paved the way for recruiting Muslim youths against US atrocities. Successful examples are the invasion of Iraq, Afghanistan and Somalia.

Globally, democracy is declining. The war on terror, patronized by the US, gave opportunities to authoritarian rulers in several democratic countries. Nations in South Asia, the Middle East and Africa have experienced terrorism as a tool of suppression and intimidation against opposition. Terrorism is solely responsible for the world refugee crisis, which has affected the European Union and Western nations the most.

Even US citizens have experienced draconian anti-terrorist laws embodied in the so-called “USA Patriot Act” that have immeasurably increased government power of surveillance, arrest and detention. The construction of military prison camps for suspected terrorists, the abrogation of basic civil liberties and the call for military trials have undermined decades of progress in developing democratic policies.

Islamic extremist movements linked to AQ have achieved their goals in Afghanistan, Somalia, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger and are strongly emerging in Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Pakistan, Nigeria and the Caucasus region. AQ in the Indian subcontinent (AQIS) has started a hidden and secretive network in India, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Kashmir. AQ in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) is going to capture the important port cities and very soon will take control of the Gulf of Aden.

In my opinion, within the next five years several African countries will announce Islamic rule within their country. AQ in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) has strong bastions in Algeria and the Sahel.

Ideological conflict must be countered by ideology. If this simple equation is miscalculated, then there will be a catastrophic debacle. Some democratic rulers are trying to politicize terrorism and for God’s sake, they are digging the grave for democracy with their own hands.

During my research, I found that AQ started its preparation on global savagery in 2002. AQ, from the beginning, targeted the dollar system as the enemy’s center of gravity. Just think, if America was not involved in the war in Afghanistan, Iraq and Africa, where would they be now? The war on terror was nothing but a waste of money and lives.

The world is shaping into a multipolar world in 2022. America has used and abused the dollar system as a punitive tool and democratic frontliners have failed to exhibit a stable, executive, beatified ideology in the 21st century. We have seen the eccentric Trump in the US, Hindu extremist Modi in India and a pillow passing show in the United Kingdom.

The world is now considering an alternative trade currency system instead of the US dollar. But it is extremely important to be critical of state terrorism when one discusses this complex and sensitive topic. For decades, the US and Israel have been accused of state terrorism.

It is, therefore, neither the time for terrorism nor reckless unilateral military intervention, but for an ideological campaign against ideological conflict. This campaign should not accept militarism, violation of human rights, the establishment of a police or military state nor the undermining of democracy in the name of fighting terrorism.

No doubt, democracy is in the ICU and misjudgment of this ideological conflict will put the last nail in the coffin of democracy.

This article published at :

1. The Jakarta Post, Indonesia :04Nov22

2. The New Nation, BD: 04Nov22

3. South Asia Journal, NJ,USA;04Nov22

4. Review Nepal, Kathmandu :06Nov22

5. The Seoul Times, S, Korea :07Nov22

6. Modern Ghana, Ghana :07Nov22

Reincarnation of Bengali showbiz industry.

M A Hossain & Nirupom Azad,

Celluloid film/drama and culture are closely entwined to each other. Culture may be defined as the way people live in this materialistic world. And when we watch cinema/drama, we see the visual representation of culture through celluloid screens.

The Cinema industry emerged roughly 113 years ago. To be exact, (on December 28, 1895), two brothers named Auguste Lumiere (1862-1954) and Louis Lumiere (1864-1948) showcased their first film at the Hotel de Café in Paris. Thenceforth, the Cinema has gradually been becoming a popular medium of Culture from west to east as well as our Indian subcontinent.

This subcontinent had its first glimpse of Cinema, even antecedent to the Independence, somewhere between 1913 and 1914, which was shown by the name of bioscope in Armanitola. The first completed Celluloid film was Mukh-o-Mukhos directed by Abdul Zabbar.  Thereafter, a myriad of films were produced, which enlivened us for years. During this watershed period, we have been blessed with a number of prolific dramatists such as Nurul Momin, Munir Chowdhury, Sayed Waliullah, etc. Ascribing to the efforts of these dramatists, our first complete drama was released in 1952, which was directed by Taracharan Shiqdar and was named "Vhadrajun".

Post-independence, this incipient nation witnessed the formation of thousands of enterprises. A lot of digital media enterprises were introduced here thanks to the other nations, most notably by our neighbouring country. The most popular one of them was the DISH cable channels. These channels had a corollary effect of integrating foreign culture within us. There is hardly a family, where at least one of the members is not engrossed with these programs. And owing to this, the choices of interest of people were largely influenced and had a negative impact on our family culture.

The Digital content that is showcased through these channels is market-oriented. Market-oriented products are being made based on the desires of people. Therefore, rather subtly, our preferences of Culture has largely been maneuvered by these contents. One thing is patently obvious, that most of the market-oriented contents do not represent the culture of our region. As such, the national identity of ours were tainted. The national identity is important because people, who belong to a particular locality, represent a specific way of living predicating on their beliefs, rituals, and customs. And so, these activities are based on the natural surrounding which includes, soil, air, and weather.

Subsequently, these contents have inculcated poison into our core belief, values, and ideas and galvanised us into a nation, which often are not cognisant of their own identity.  However, the dichotomy might be observed in the writings of some prolific writers, such as Humayun Ahmed, who wrote some of the most beautiful dramas and novels.  Samsul Haq, Humayun Azad, Akhtaruzzaman Elias, Munir Chowdhury, and Selim Al Deen were blazing the trail for epitomising our culture with their writings. We were blessed with some notable film directors like Mita, Khan Ata, Momtazur Rahman, Subhash Dutta, Matin, Ehtesham, Kazi Hayaat in post-independence era.

Humayun Ahmed put emphasis on making drama, films. The dramas such as "Aaj Robibar", "Ure Jay Bokpokkhi", "Nokkhotrer Rath", etc are the all-time favourites. He paved the way for making glorious and eminent films like" Aguner Porosmoni", ‘Noi Number Bipod Shanked", "Daruchini Deep". In addition, Writers Munir Chowdhury came up with Drama "Ektola- dotala". So, since then, we were finding our own identity. 

Some genius actors in film industry like Razzak, Shabana, Kobori, Bobita, Suchanda, Golam Mostafa, Faruq and in drama Humayun Foridi, Afzal Hossain, Ferdousi Majumdar, Shuborna Mustafa, Raisul Islam Asad, and Shawmi Kaiser did their Job very clinically.  They had entertained us for years, and some of them are still entertaining. 

But after 2000, the tremendous growth of the world cinema industry, and the availability of these foreign content put adverse pressure on our industry. Writers were not paid properly and the freedoms of the writers were stifled.  The directors were impelled to produce content which had not even the remotest nexus with our Culture.

In the recent past, our showbiz industry has been rejuvenating. A number of the present promising actors like Arfan Nisho, Apurba, superstar Mosharraf Karim, Chanchal Chowdhury are keeping the momentum in right direction. Needless to say, actress like Tasnia Farin whose presentation and style of acting have changed the dynamics of our showbiz psyche, be it in "Nisswash", "Karaghar" or "ladies and Gentlemen ". Even before these, our Golden Era hesitated to bet on actress oriented project. Beside her, Joya Ahsan, Badhon, Mehazabien Chowdhury, Sabila Nur, Tanjin Tisha are doing very well on our TV screens. Young directors like Aryan, Mostafa Farooki, Rafi, Shawki are transcending our industry beyond our border.

The incorporation of larger media giants like Hoichoi, Chorki, Zee5, and Bioscope are investing their money to revive the showbiz industry from this soil and will make prolific digital media content as well. " Devi", "Rehana Maryam Noor", "Television" have exhibited the prowess of our directors to the international platform and made the nation proud.  So, we need a concerted effort to keep the momentum brighter.

This article published at :

1. The New Nation, BD:16 Oct 22

2. Review Nepal, Kathmandu :16Oct22

3. South Asia Journal, NJ,USA: 21Oct22

What Zawahiri's death signifies for the US and its CT mission.

M A Hossain, 

Ayman al-Zawahiri, the Egyptian physician who ensconced himself at the helm of al-Qaeda (AQ) after Osama bin Laden's death in 2011, was killed by the US drone strike in Afghanistan on the 31st July, 22. Biden's administration is hailing Al-Zawahiri's death as a ‘hugely significant blow’ to AQ, especially considering the manner of orchestrating the killing after the elimination of High-Value Targets (HVT) like Osama bin Laden, Abu Baker Al Baghdadi or Qasem Soleimani. In the past, these types of targeted killings used to have a daunting impact on jihadist organizations, but not a decisive effect. It also could not help to eliminate terrorist attacks and affected neither the rate of terrorist attacks nor the likelihood of organizational collapse. Probably, neutralizing these types of HVT could achieve an immediate vision rather than an ultimate vision for the US administration.

 

Zawahiri was the long-time Deputy Leader of AQ with Osama bin Laden, and he undeniably provided much of the intellectual foundation for AQ's international agenda of committing mass-casualty terrorist attacks and promoting sharia governance. AQ under Zawahiri was deliberately communicating with local and regional jihadi organizations, content to quietly rebuild and regroup. Zawahiri's quietism strategy was validated by the patience and perseverance that restore the Taliban to power. He carried the movement together through his force of personality, and strategic vision, which was to allow the various offshoots of AQ to pursue their local and regional agenda and have complete tactical independence. It has been successful.

 

Ayman al-Zawahiri leaves behind a robust network of not only strategically aligned but tactically independent AQ affiliates operating in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. Al-Shabaab and Jamaat Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin have a strong bastion in East Africa and the Sahel, respectively. Al-Qaeda in Arabian Peninsula(AQAP) is still fighting in Yemen and Al-Qaeda in Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) has spread to Bangladesh, India, the Maldives, and Pakistan. Hurras al-Din is working in the Levant. He created an extensive operational bureaucracy in the organizational system with a clear chain of command that ensures that the Group's fate is not tied to any single leader, including himself. Under his leadership, AQ expanded its reach from Mali to Kashmir. He faced challenges in Syria and Iraq; but ultimately, his strategy has been successful being not to be extirpated there. During Zawahiri's tenure, he portrayed AQ as a moderate extremist but did not mean that it has eschewed terrorism or given up its struggle.  So, we can see that AQ tends to survive after the death of its leader because of its operating organizational bureaucracy, enduring ideology and communal support.

 

It is definitely a massive success for intelligence operations, but not for counterterrorism missions. It proves that America can carry out any targeted killing mission without favour. Now, if we look into the trend of such announcement of neutralizing HVTs by the US administration, then it will be clear to us. When the incumbent administration of the US is losing its popularity and the electoral procedure is nearer, then it needs to assure the US citizens that this administration is capable of safeguarding the nation. Americans consider safety as its top priority in their daily life, especially during post 9/11 epoch. So, the Biden administration needs to cover up the shambles it faced in handling Covid-19, the Ukraine war, and the imbroglio with the internal economy in the same way its predecessor did with the likes of Osama bin Laden, Qasem Soleimani, and Baghdadi. However, it is not in the offing that Zawahiri's death will hamper AQ much in the long run. But the current debacle necessitates the US to demonstrate its military prowess that America will not hesitate to strike anywhere around the world when America's safety is concerned. Another intention of this strike is to subdue the Taliban and allude the Afghan Government aware that they have violated the Doha Deal and negotiation with the US to unfreeze the 9 billion in assets that Washington is holding.

 

This whole theatricality is nothing different from the trends adopted by the US during Cold War era. It can showcase the military strength to the other superpowers. But at the end, the obvious question remains yet to be answered as to who is behind the creation of this AQ, Saddam Hussein, ISIL, Taliban or who trained those espionage or law enforcement agencies of countries which are indicted for gross human rights violations? We know the answer and hope to stop creating Frankenstein further. 

This article published at :

1. The New Nation, BD,18Aug22

2. Modern Ghana, Ghana :18Aug22

3. Review Nepal, Kathmandu :18Aug22

Changing calculus on political dynamics in Indo-Pacific region.

M A Hossain, 

Since the fall of the Ottoman Empire post World War-l, the Islamic religiopolitical movement accelerated its activities to revive and embolden the antecedent Islamic systems around the world. After a long battle, the Taliban's victory over the superpower America has re-energized the other mujahideen in their goal to establish Islamic emirate States.

Taliban's very close ally Tehreek-e- Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has re-emerged at the full-throttle after the US debacle in Afghanistan. America's purported "war on terror" has created a vacuum, which might get infused by the Islamic fundamentalism in Asia. And US deprioritisation of counterterrorism over the economy has just might as well galvanised various jihadi organizations to come out of their shells with a view to accomplish their fundamental goal of establishing sharia law in this Region.

Suffice it to say that the TTP, which is incipient since 2007, is a by-product of the US invasion in Afghanistan in 2001. The Taliban shares innate ethnic, ideological and political nexus with TTP. During the US invasion in Afghanistan, TTP facilitated shelters to the Taliban commanders and fighters in the ex-FATA( Federally Administered Tribal Area). The influential Haqqani network of Taliban and TTP has strong interpersonal, wartime bonds, and abundant ethnic amity. TTP has supported the Taliban with the suicide bomber and also shares a common ally with Al-Qaeda(AQ). Soon after the commencement of the peace treaty between the US and Taliban, TTP re-emerged as a strong political power factor in Pakistan. On 30 March 22, TTP launched its insurgency operation against law enforcement agencies from the start of holly Ramadan, which commenced on the 02nd April, 22. They bolstered this operation as the operation Al- Badr, which, they claim, is to be carried out against the Pakistani security forces(SF) and their facilitators only. Their operation has seen till the 29th May, 22, to a reported fatality of 39 SF personnel. TTP is believed to have been at the receiving end of the full support from the Afghan Taliban. At present, Pakistan is going through tremendous economic and political imbroglio. So, understandably Pakistani establishments are resolute on averting another disastrous inland front with TTP and would travel any distance to achieve détente with TTP and this venture for peace by Pakistan has already been conducive of several rounds of negotiation meetings and ceasefire agreements. According to the media reports, the Pakistani government has released 30 TTP jail inmates, which evinces the ardency for peace by the Pakistani establishments. Afghan Taliban is mediating this peace deal.

It is to be seen, how the US and China, the two rival superpowers, respond to this emerging radical violence in Asia. The US had intervened in Afghanistan and Iraq with its so-called "war on terror". But in the end, the US got entwined into an intricate quagmire and lost its previously acquired ground. And to save its face, this superpower had to settle for a peace deal with the Taliban in Afghanistan and had to create a Frankenstein like IS which ruined Iraq. After a protracted war, now US administration has de-prioritized the war against Islam, and containment of China's growth has been exalted to the helm of its list to regain its lost glory. Conversely, China has always exhibited a disposition to avoid confrontation; especially since trade and economic growth are the leading agenda to the polit bureaus in China.

China has a direct suppressible claim on Uighur Muslims and the indirect influence of atrocities on Rohingya. It is the US that raised its voice globally against China's repression of Muslims. But the same allegation can also be raised against the US for aggression in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Yemen. So, regarding these superpowers, what they say is not what they mean and what they mean is unfailingly not what the Muslims need right now. The US made a peace deal with the Taliban and china comes forward with a huge investment in Afghanistan. It is patently obvious that no superpower wants to confront with Islamic forces. Now, amid the growing demands of strategic competition, the US gets an opportunity to sell arms to Pakistan and Pakistan's self-inflicted imbroglio is certainly not the US government's responsibility. China has a huge investment in Pakistan and Afghanistan. So, China's green signal has made Pakistani establishments sit for a peace deal with TTP.

TTP has a similar ideological alignment with the Taliban to implement Islamic law known as sharia. So, the Taliban's takeover of Kabul was the new dimension of the geopolitical scenario in Asia. TTP's demand is an aftermath effect of the Kabul fall. TTP strongly demanded the Malakand region for autonomy with sharia law and Pakistani establishments showed a bit soft stance on that. And that is just the beginning of a new dimension in our regional politics. After establishing a foothold in Pakistan, this group is likely to be gravitated towards Kashmir. It is believed that this extremist group will enjoy the state's support. Their ultimate aim is to stand beside repressed Muslims in India.

In this milieu, Bangladesh will not be an exception. It is strongly believed that Al-Qaeda is working silently and covertly in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Indonesia and Malaysia. Myanmar's ARSA is regrouping for their rights. Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan are already experienced with offshoots of AQ. Yemen, Iraq and Syria have strong bastions for AQ. So, AQ brings all the jihadi organisations under one umbrella by pledging allegiance to the Taliban chief. And definitely, these Islamic forces will dictate the future political dynamics in Asia.

This article published at :

1. South Asia Journal, NJ,USA:30Jun22

2. Review Nepal, Kathmandu, Nepal:02Jul22

3. The New Nation, Bangladesh :05Jul22

4. Modern Ghana, Ghana :06Jul22

5. The Arabian Post, UAE, 23Jul22

6. The Daily Excelsior, J&K,03Aug22

North Korea's nuclear missile temptation

M A Hossain,

North Korea's recent volley of advanced nuclear missile tests is designed to grab the full attention of the US and the international community. Despite strong international sanctions and a Covid-19 pandemic-torn crippled economy, Marshall Kim Jong Un seems to have re-calibrated his strategy in dealing with the US as his style of “maximum pressure” strategy. Kim believes the maximum pressure by the flurry of powerful nuclear missile tests might be the only way to push the US to make concessions towards his country.

President Biden's engagement with his global rivals has frustrated his allies and peace-mongering nations. He has been demonstrating a proclivity for opening the curtains with tough rhetoric against his adversaries, but subsequently failed to adhere to the ferocity as promised, which is exhibited in dealing with Iran, Russia and Taliban, and North Korea could well be the next in line to manifest the declawed strength of Biden Administration. Indubitably, the Biden administration's “ill-defined” diplomacy is insufficient to entice Kim Jong Un back into disarmament negotiations. North Korea's leadership and state establishments believe the nuclear arsenal as a vital security crutch to confront an enduring superpower threat to its survival.

The history of repeated dead-end disarmament talks have so far exhibited tedious and yet unsuccessful international efforts to reach a fruitful and decisive agreement with Pyongyang.

The western leaders and its allies have failed to procure commitment from Pyongyang to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, the 1992 accord with South Korea to maintain a nuclear-free peninsula, the 1994 agreed framework, the 2005 six-party talks pledge to abandon the nuclear program, the 2012 agreement to halt enrichment and testing of nuclear weapon and last Singapore joint statement between President Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un endorsing nuclear disarmament. Now the question remains whether it is time to accept the unacceptable nuclear-armed North Korea and offer diplomatic relations by the Western stakeholders to normalize the strained situation. 

In retrospect to the history of American diplomacy, the US played a critical role in resolving nuclear crises. For example, President Richard Nixon normalized Washington-Beijing relations in 1971 without questioning china's nuclear program. It also played a vital role to defuse the Cuban missile crisis, India -Pakistan crisis and the Ussuri river conflict between China and the Soviet Union in 1969. So, the unconditional nuclear status with diplomatic normalization may de-escalate the tense situation in the Asia-pacific region.

The moratorium has largely kept North Korea out of the international spotlight, but long-range missile tests in 2022 suggest that it could reverse the trend to meet domestic goals as well as to coax the US into new negotiations. China, another superpower, has played a smoke and mirror game on North Korea. China has exceedingly depleted the US gambit on North Korea. The US economic sanctions on North Korea have proved insufficient so long China backed Kim's regime. China also ignored the international counter-proliferation financing regime. North Korea will seek more cooperation with China to revive its economy by resuming trade while carrying out a "Tit for tat" response to US sanctions.

On the other hand, nearly 30,000 US troops are stationed in South Korea for bolstering an offshore nuclear umbrella and sea-based ballistic missile defence. On August 21, the US State department approved a USD 258 million sales of precision-guided weapons to South Korea. Two superpowers, China and the US have divided Korea since 1950. The South is talking about the unification of Korea, while the North is demanding the reunification of Korea. This is a major obstacle in finding a lasting peace formula. I don't think both Korea would accept the leadership and political system of each other. In my opinion, Korean people definitely should be brought under a single umbrella, keeping two political systems for two Koreans.  Under this, there will be a common military force to ensure the sovereignty of both the Koreans as well as assure peaceful coexistence with the neighbours like Japan, China and beyond.

The US has a significant role to play in bringing peace to the Korean Peninsula. First, Pentagon has to abandon any sort of regime change scheme like Libya or Iraq in North Korea. A good faith diplomatic détente, starting from vacating the South Korean alliance and lifting economic sanctions, with the tacit legitimization of nuclear status.  This diplomatic gridlock can be dispelled by initiating extra government meetings between former US authorities and North Korean officials in a third country.

This 2022 is the perfect time for North Korea to exert maximum pressure on the US to restore talks, as the US is now struggling with Russia in Eastern Europe and with China in East Asia.  North Korea hopes to use its nuclear temptation as leverage to negotiate a peace treaty with South Korea and US troops withdrawal from the Korean Peninsula.

This article has published at:

1. The Daily Observer, BD:22Apr22

2. The New Nation, BD:23Apr22

3. The Daily Sun,BD:23Apr22

4. Review Nepal, Kathmandu:23Apr22

Ukraine crisis: Gambit for new world order.

M A Hossain,

Historically, Ukraine crisis began in the year of 1954, when Soviet Leader Nikita Khrushchev handed over Crimea from Russian Socialist Federal Republic to Ukrainian Federal Republic in the celebration of the 300th anniversary of Russia-Ukraine unification. It was an important event as both the republics were part of Soviet Union. From 1920 to 1991, Ukraine was completely under control of Moscow. Both Russia and Ukraine are Slavic and have a common history, culture and orthodox majority. But after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Crimea's position became more significant in newly independent Ukraine.

American political scientist Samuel P Huntington, in his book "Clash of civilization" has predicted Ukraine as a cleft state and would have more potential to split which would start with Crimea. In fact, It had already begun with Crimea in 2014 after annexation by Moscow. President Putin spent 22 years in power, rebuilding Russia's military and re - establishing its geopolitical influence, which had in Soviet era. He has selected Ukraine as its strategic position for Central Europe to revive ex - Soviet's name and fame as superpower. Russia's strategy and Planning in terms of power and politics is to exert influence over Ukraine so that she has control and influence over the Baltic States.

On the other hand, in 1999,President Bill Clinton and his Russian counterpart Boris Yeltsin signed an agreement in Paris where the agreement guaranteed Russia as the status of NATO's Associated Partners and stemmed NATO's expansion towards Eastern and Central Europe. Nevertheless, during the last two decades, the US, and its NATO allies have been violating non expansion guarantee by including and annexing some Baltic States - Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Eastern European Poland, Romania and working to bring Ukraine and Georgia into NATO's pact. NATO signed an agreement with Ukraine for inclusion in 2008. But the move was foiled after the pro Russian Viktor Yanukovych was elected as the President of Ukraine in 2009. Again in 2014, President Yanukovych was ousted by a revolution and hardliner nationalist and pro-Western Petro Peroshanko came to power. NATO’s expansion towards East has got momentum and continues till present President Vladimir Zelensky. This is a disaster for Russia because it was conducive of facilitating the presence of the US troops and Missile system within the close proximity of Moscow, having an ability to strike Moscow within the span of four minutes. In October 2018, the US and NATO took part in a joint Air rally in Western Ukraine which was the largest exercise after the fall of the Soviet Union in this region. In this context, Russia is being seized by NATO’s "containment theory" and had no other option other than to go on aggressive campaign.

Ukraine's crisis has exploited a severe impact on the global economy. Russia is the second-largest producing country of natural gas in the world. It exports 30% of its extracted natural gas and 70% of its export is made to Europe. The largest gas pipeline is Nord stream-1 with the capacity of 55 billion cubic meters per year which runs through Ukraine. France and Germany are dependent on Russian exported gas and coal. The imposing of stringent sanctions on Russia by the Western countries will have a spillover effect on the global oil market. Russia also exports minerals like Titanium, Palladium. One-third Palladium of its demand is supplied from Russia globally. Ukraine is one of the main suppliers of neon which is utilized in semiconductors. Ukraine and Russia both export fertilizer around the world. So, Ukraine crisis will have a severe impact on agriculture and industrial economy, not only throughout Europe, but Globally nonetheless.

China's support for Russia in the stand-off over Ukraine upends the strategic calculus for world order. Moscow-Beijing jointly lashing out at Washington's alleged destabilizing policies in both Eastern Europe and the Asia-Pacific region. President Vladimir Putin knows very well that the number one superpower, the US is unable to open a second front in a geopolitical fight. Beijing's explicit support in the showdown of Moscow on the Ukraine issue will bring China a quid pro quo in the form of Moscow’s support on the Taiwan issue. The trade between China and Russia was 147 billion dollars last year. The Western sanctions in 2015 made the trade figure almost double between China and Russia.

Both Russia and China would also seize on any apparent US back down over Ukraine to portray Washington as an unreliable partner. Russia's limited scale incursion is aimed to bring Western leaders to the negotiation table and achieve guarantee of the halt to NATO expansion as well as withdraw the US missile system from Poland. If the demands of Russia are not met, then Moscow might consider attempting to demilitarize Ukrainian government forces and instate a pro-Russian government. The US response to Moscow could lose influence on Asia-Pacific theatre and China would try to fill the void, especially in Taiwan, the South China Sea. In this scenario, Russia will face tough economic sanctions from the US and its allies. But as political leaders of tomorrow, the lessons they learn from this crisis will undoubtedly shape their commitment and solidarity and the transatlantic alliance, while shaping future foreign and security policy for years to come.

This article published at:

1. The New Nation, Bangladesh: 15Mar22

2. The Arabian Post, Dubai, UAE, 13Mar22

Contaminated air an ominous sign for humankind

M A Hossain,

As a father, I always had this effusive wish to frolic in an open meadow in Dhaka, accompanied by my 8-year-old daughter; in the same gleeful manner that my father did, a few decades ago. I still can vividly remember that after a long run with my father, the exertion would always be soothed, when we used to sit on the grass, under a tree perhaps, and would be invigorated in a matter of minutes. Alas! It is an impossibility nowadays to find such a green meadow in Dhaka, which is befitting to accommodate a father and his 8-year-old daughter. Especially when our daughters are beginning to grow multifarious respiratory diseases due to inhaling the dreadfully hazardous air of this crowded city. 

According to"Air Visual"- an international atmosphere observatory organisation, Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh is the worst air polluted city in the world. A report from"the state of global air-2019" – related to global hazardous air pollution has ranked Bangladesh as the top five countries in terms of hazardous air polluted nations. Collectively, we are exhibiting a self-deprecating oblivion towards the destruction of our posterity, as well as being apocalyptical to our future generations. This might well be the most preposterously concerted infanticide, which we so blithely are inflicting upon our future generation due to environmental degradation.

World Health Organisation(WHO) has reported that 90% of our population is affected by hazardous air pollution. Air Pollution impacts everyone's health, but children bear the maximum brunt of it. The University of California, the UC DAVIS, Environmental Health Science Center have conducted a study on the bio specimen and fire effects, which revealed that air pollution alters the size of a child's developing brain which may ultimately increase the risk for cognitive and emotional problems. Unfortunately, children are particularly vulnerable to air pollution, especially during their age of development. Higher air pollution increases respiratory infections and develops asthma. Children exposed to hazardous air pollution are more likely to develop bronchitis, lung damage and irritation to the eyes, nose, and throat. Urban children are also facing the issue of neuron behavioural disorders. Needless to say, that the Air Pollution is gradually incapacitating the generation to come, both mentally and physically. 

The drasticity of the effects of Air Pollution are not only confined to the children, the adults are also encountering the ghastly after-effect of breathing in this perilous air of Dhaka. It presents a threat to respiratory health and cardiovascular disease, obesity, reproductive, neurological and immune system disorders comes as an inevitable corollary. Air Pollution also affects memory and Alzheimer's-like brain declines. A person, exposed to longtime air pollution, invariably is posed with the threat of cancer, pneumonia, allergy, skin disease, headache, dizziness etc. Various researches suggest that our average lifetime can be reduced up to almost 3 years for indoor and outdoor air pollution. It has also been suggested that air pollution reduces our lifespan much more gravely than the active and passive smoking combined. According to the standard of WHO, Bangladesh is the top-ranking environmental health-hazardous country along with India, Pakistan, China. Besides, Dhaka has been listed as the second-worst air polluted city, with Kolkata and Lahore securing the first and third position.

Our environmental degradation has increased manyfold over the last several decades. Vehicular emissions, unplanned rapid industrialization and urbanisation are the main catalysts of air pollution. It creates the excessive presence of carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides and sulphur dioxide in the air, which adversely affects the ozone layer, livestock, and agricultural products. Acid rain, climate changes are directly attributable to air pollution. In Bangladesh, there are four main reasons behind the air pollution—emissions from old-fashioned brick kilns and unfit vehicles, corruption in the Department of Environment and dust from construction sites.

Researchers have recently unveiled that 15% of the death of COVID-19 patients is caused by air pollution globally. A report from 'State of Global Air-2019' stated that air pollution is the 4th leading cause behind human death globally. More than 6 million lives were lost globally due to air pollution in 2019. Among those, Bangladesh has lost 173 thousand, the number is as dreadful as it sounds. According to research by UNICEF, a total of 300 million children are living in hazardous air polluted-prone areas. Unfortunately, this research also found that 220 million affected children are from South Asia. Every year, 6 hundred thousand infants, below 5, are losing their lives due to air pollution around the world.

My heart was bleeding while writing this article, and I was almost on the verge of a breakdown, when I was delving into the reports of all those Air Pollution related researches. WHO's chief, Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus called air pollution a "silent public health emergency". As a father, I desperately urge all policymakers, as well as the fathers of this city, to process the design of a powerful tool of environmental and health protection. Our ruling party has made us optimistic by uplifting the image of Bangladesh in various global agendas like self-sufficiency, refugee crisis, living standards, health and economy index etc. So, in terms of air pollution, it will not be overly panglossian to aspire that our Government would take an effective air quality control strategy of governance, policy, monitoring, and enforcement to save our future generation. I take this opportunity to beseech every reader, who sets his eyes on this Article, to give the highest priority to unearth the panacea to control and manage Air Pollution of this otherwise beautiful city of ours, for the sake of those who mean the most to us. As was said by our national poet, Kazi Nazrul Islam 'Rokto jhorate parina to eka, tai likhey jai ei rokto lekha (I can't shed blood alone, so I write these bloody writings)".

This article has published at:

1. The New Nation, Bangladesh :26Jan22

2. The Independent, Bangladesh:27Jan22

The Geopolitical Dynamics of the Asia- Pacific region in 2022.

M A Hossain,

The paradigm shift in the geopolitical dynamics in the Asia Pacific is in the offing since President Biden assumed the Office. The Biden Administration took an apparent deviation from his predecessor- Trump's foreign policy, so far this Region is concerned. Donald Trump withdrew the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) treaty, which left the region open to Chinese dominance and Beijing took the opportunity to a full extent and exceedingly established its influence on Asia—Pacific. However, for now, Mr. Biden's emphasis on Democratic values and human rights as a security strategy, by reviving its leadership position in the Asia- Pacific theatre, is going to make a polarized world and may galvanise a shadow Cold- War 2.0.

The Biden administration is strengthening its alliances, especially the EU, and concentrating more on the Asia-Pacific region than his predecessor. During Donald Trump's presidency, the détente in the US-Russia relations raised the eyebrows of a number of US policymakers and allies. As a result, Trump was indicted by the congressional Committee on the accusation of Russia's meddling in his presidential election. But Mr. Biden has recalibrated the Washington—Moscow relationship. The US-led NATO military alliances are stoking tensions near Moscow's border. The West accosted Russia on the issue of forceful subjugation of Rule of Law and its opposition leader. Russia also retaliates with military-technical measures in both the EU's neighbourhoods (Eastern and Southern), through the gas pipelines and refugees being used as means of exerting pressure, which is understandably having an unnerving impact on the energy and migration sector.

In 2022, the world appears to be on the verge of re-orientating its long-held policy towards the US-China polarisation. The cash-rich Chinese announcement of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has disrupted and unsettled the US traditional Asian allies. Chairman Xi's policy of 'deep pocket' for his neighbours made proselytisation of US loyalists towards Chinese pull in Asia-Pacific. Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, Laos, and Cambodia have gravitated towards China's orbit of influence which will jolt the geopolitical orientation of ASEAN nations. In Asia, China is investing approx 100 billion USD annually. China-backed North Korea's Sabre rattling makes US allies - Japan and South Korea concerned. China warned the Western Leaders on the issue of Taiwan and threatened not to 'play with fire'. The situation is increasingly deteriorating in the South China Sea, Korean Peninsula, the opening up of Arctic routes and trade wars. Thus, China is gradually becoming more assertive and is beginning to challenge the leadership of global power.

In 2022, the World's eyes will be on the US and its western allies; more specifically as to how they polarise the Asian states towards its orbit of influence. We experienced this political polarisation by the US during the Cold War and after WW-ll. US efforts to align Asia-Pacific countries are reflected by the 2021 trips of the US secretaries of State and Defence to this region. China's BRI is countered by the US initiatives to revive Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad)- a strategic security dialogue between the US, Australia, Japan, and India and another strategic security pact within Australia, United Kingdom and US (AUKUS). The most important events in 2021 were the G-7 Summit, NATO Summit and Summit for democracy. The future threats from China and Russia were clearly spelled out by the US-led Western leaders in those Summits. Their rivals are also reverberating equally in every region. As a result, an ominous trepidation of another Cold War is looming over the horizon.

In the Indo-Pacific region, China has severe economic, political and military influences. Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar, Bangladesh are pursuing various multi-billion-dollars Infrastructural development projects funded by China. These South Asian States have billion-dollars military deals with China. So, Quad is a strategic posture for US presence in this region to curb and countermeasure China's influence. China exposed political rifts with India by border skirmishes or growing threats to India's "chicken neck". President Biden seeks to build a strategic framework to counter the growing influence of China in this region. Recent punitive actions by the US against Bangladesh and Myanmar are devised in the Indo-Pacific strategy against China and inducement for geopolitical polarisation. Meanwhile, China is expanding the horizons of its global influence in Africa and Latin America. 

The Covid-19 pandemic is widening the chasm and pre-existing discontent for vaccine diplomacy.  We will see the initiative of forming broader strategic alliances, more political destabilisation attempts in Vassal states. Future unpredictable technological and arms trade competition could revolutionise defence, cooperation, and economy among State to State, The Asian states are going to watch a confrontation between development and Rule of Law, That is why, the economic, political and military alliances may no longer follow the same trajectory as before. At this moment, this region offers China an edge over America, but one thing is for sure, things will never be the same as we are going to enter 'The Age of Uncertainty'.

The article published at:

1. The Independent, Bangladesh,12Jan22

2. Modern Ghana, Ghana :14Jan22

3. Kashmir Watch, EU: 14Jan,22

4. Review Nepal, Kathmandu, 14Jan22

5. South Asia Journal, NJ,USA:19Jan22

India turns cruel face on Muslims and non-Hindus!

M  A Hossain,

None of the major political parties in India, be it Bharatiya Janata Party(BJP) or Indian National Congress  (INC) are considering Muslim or non-Hindu voters as significant anymore. During the Rajya Sabha election in Gujrat, BJP and INC leaders, including Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi refrained from even going to Muslim voters, which constitute ten percent of the total votes, seeking their support. Instead Muslims are compelled living in those areas under suffocating offensive odor of garbage- day and night. No one seems to show minimum sympathy to their extreme sufferings. 

Both BJP and INC believes, the days of giving importance to Muslim voters is already over. Instead, Indian political parties are putting more focus and importance to Hindu voters. With this agenda in mind, BJP made pledges during 2014 Lok Sabha election of expelling over four million Bangla-speaking Muslims from the north-eastern states.

BJP claims, these Bangla-speaking Muslims are not Indian nationals. Instead, they are intruders from neighbouring Bangladsh. According to a Agartala-based journalist, the 'real' number of intruders from Bangladesh would cross over seven million. She believes, Narendra Modi would very certainly 'drive away' these 'illegal immigrants' much before the 2019 Lok Sabha election. Mamata Banerjee, the Chief Minister of West Bengal and her Trinamool Congress are opposing Modi's agenda of expelling Bangla-speaking Muslims. Mamata or her party's voice are largely insignificant in the 1.20 billion Hindu population's India.

This article also published at:

1.Ghananews24.com
2.Modern Ghana, Ghana :03April 2018
3.globoble.com
4.pressbox.co.uk
5. sunnyfmgh.com
6.South China Morning Post:05April 2018