Zelenskyy's Fate Hangs in Delusion and Illusion.

M A Hossain, 

The Ukrainian government faces enormous challenges and risks from internal divisions and the waning support of its Western allies. It is evident that President Vladimir Putin has skillfully managed the war that erupted in February 2022. By the end of 2023, the delivery of military equipment to Ukraine will reach its lowest level since the conflict began. Kyiv has mainly depended on the weapon stockpiles of its allied countries, and the IMF has announced that the Ukrainian economy can only survive for 'a few months' without Western financial aid. Moreover, the possible return of a Republican president after 2024 would be a major setback for the US backing of Ukraine. However, the Hamas-Israel conflict has provided an opportunity for the Biden administration to deprioritize the Ukraine war. Thus, the geopolitical factors, electoral cycles, arms transfers, and the availability of ammunition have left Zelenskyy's fate hanging in delusion and illusion. 

For the first time, the Pentagon disclosed an exact date for the depletion of resources meant to support Kyiv. According to Bloomberg, the US Department of Defense informed Congress that the funds allocated to replenish weapons for Ukraine would run out by December 30, 2023. The US Senate Republicans have blocked a $110.5 billion aid package for their allies. The Pentagon spokesman, Patrick Ryder, stated earlier this month that Washington would have to choose between its combat readiness and the provision of weapons to Ukraine due to a shortage of financial resources. Additionally, at a summit in Brussels, EU leaders failed to agree on a four-year financial plan of €60 billion for Ukraine. The Kremlin warned the EU that any shipment containing weapons to Kyiv would be regarded as a legitimate target. Ukraine's much-hyped summer counteroffensive failed to meet the expectations of its allies. Therefore, after nearly two years of war, the Atlantic nations are beginning to focus on their national security interests rather than those of Ukraine's.

The West provoked the Ukraine war on Russia, a clear display of its hegemonic global agenda. Russia has not shown any imperialist or territorial ambition in this war. Zelenskyy came to power in 2014 through a Western-supported coup. He immediately started efforts to integrate Ukraine into the EU. Since Ukraine lies within Russia's sphere of influence, Russia opposed it and this led to the conflict. The Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, inadvertently exposed a broader, dishonorable motive for the proxy war during his visit to Poland in April 2022. He said that Washington's goal was not only to help Ukraine repel Russia's invasion, but also to 'weaken Russia' to the point that it could no longer pose a threat to any other country. However, there is little regard for the impact on the suffering inhabitants of the country that serves as a battleground for the proxy war, and surprisingly little concern for the wider geopolitical implications. It is simply to harass and bleed Washington's rival, as well as boost the depleted US economy by the military-industrial complex. 

The nature of war is inherently unstable, marked by constant changes in circumstances. There are some possible scenarios for the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. Mainly, if Donald Trump or the Republican Party wins the upcoming 2024 US presidential election, then it could lead to a significant change in the course of the Russia-Ukraine war. A Republican president would be likely to reduce assistance to Ukraine and engage in diplomatic talks to end the conflict. The US would probably shift its focus to the Indo-Pacific region. This recalibration would be a chance to strengthen Russia's control over the occupied Ukrainian territories. At the same time, such a sudden change in U.S. policy towards Ukraine would undermine its reputation as a dependable security guarantor not only for the EU but also for other parts of the world. There could be another scenario, a drastic cut in Western support for Ukraine could lead to Russia completely taking over eastern and southern Ukraine. That would totally block Ukraine's access to the Black Sea.

Unlike Ukraine, Russia has enough supplies of weapons for 2024. Mr. Putin has been preparing his military for more than a year. Russia has raised its 2024 budget for military spending. Ukraine's slow advance against Russia's heavily fortified defense during the recent counteroffensive could lead to a war of attrition in the Ukrainian military. It is very doubtful that Ukraine is able to launch another counteroffensive in the near future. The right wing, populist, Eurosceptics statesmen in the EU also complicate Ukraine's future. Netherlands and Hungarian leaders, Geert Wilders and Viktor Orbán, are opposed to stronger EU sanctions on Russia. 

Russia's upcoming 2024 presidential election has a significant influence on the Russia-Ukraine War. Mr. Putin could order his commanders to restart large-scale offensive operations with an ambition to seize new territories. New battlefield victories would enhance his popularity and legitimacy among the Russian people, who may view him as a strong leader. He can also present himself as a protector of their national interests and sovereignty against foreign interference. No doubt, the Ukraine issue will help Mr. Putin to consolidate his power within his own political system. 

The West never cares about Ukraine. The country is used as a pawn to 'weaken' Russia in this proxy war. The Israel-Hamas conflict has provided the opportunity to escape from this proxy war for the West. Mr. Zelenskyy, the lone man who has ruined Ukraine, and surely, he will be held accountable in the future for many lives and cities. And, the relations between Russia and the West will never improve through force and intimidation. Respectful and diplomatic postures are the only way to prevent conflict.

M A Hossain, a political and defense analyst based in Bangladesh. He can be reached at: writetomahossain@gmail.com

This article published at :

1. Eurasia Review, Oregon, USA: 29 Dec23

2. The Eurasian Times,New Delhi:30 Dec23

3. OZarab media, Aus:31 Dec 23

4. Review Nepal, Kathmandu:01 Jan 24

5. Asian Age, BD: 03Jan 24

6. Pakistan Today, 06Jan24

The Complex Interplay: America's Sanctions and Bangladesh's Counterterrorism Initiatives.

M A Hossain, 

In the intricate mosaic of global counterterrorism endeavors, Bangladesh emerges as a nation adeptly navigating the multifaceted challenges posed by terrorist activities. The recently published Country Reports on Terrorism for the year 2022 by the US State Department, furnished a comprehensive and perceptive elucidation of Bangladesh's counterterrorism milieu.

Throughout the annals of 2022, Bangladesh encountered a relatively scant number of instances of terrorist violence, chiefly attributable to the relentless pursuit of militant groups by the authorities. The report accentuates the fact that Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, an unwavering luminary at the nation's helm, along with other governmental functionaries, consistently underscored the country's unequivocal stance against terrorism. Sheikh Hasina's steadfast commitment to expelling terrorism from the nation has propelled the vigorous counterterrorism initiatives undertaken by Bangladesh.

The leadership of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is distinguished by a proactive and resolute approach aimed at ensuring the safety and security of the nation. Despite confronting myriad challenges, including the repudiation of the presence of globally organized militant factions, Sheikh Hasina has exhibited unwavering determination in her 'Zero Tolerance' policy against terrorism, safeguarding the tranquility and stability of Bangladesh.

The Institute for Economics and Peace, a Sydney-based organization specializing in terrorism studies, unveiled a report on April 10, 2023. Remarkably, Bangladesh outperforms Pakistan, India, and Sri Lanka, as well as the United States and the United Kingdom in the Global Terrorism Index, as per the report. This index meticulously analyzes a country's annual incidence of terrorist activities, hostage situations, and casualties. Afghanistan claims the undesirable top spot for terrorism, with Pakistan at 6, India at 13, the United States at 30, the United Kingdom at 42, and Bangladesh securing the 43rd position.

The data reveals a noteworthy trend for Bangladesh, ranking 40th in 2022, 43rd in 2023, and notably surging to 22nd in 2016. In essence, since 2016, Bangladesh has consistently elevated its standing in the global fight against terrorism. Notably, when compared to other South Asian countries, as well as the United States, Bangladesh has maintained a commendable lead. Consequently, the report stands as a distinctly positive affirmation of Bangladesh's concerted efforts in combating terrorism on the international stage.

These militant factions, driven by the objective of destabilizing the law and order situation in Bangladesh with a clandestine agenda of ousting Sheikh Hasina from power, had converged into a formidable force. Systematically orchestrated assaults, targeting individuals of a secularist disposition, journalists, bloggers, and even foreigners, became an unsettlingly recurrent phenomenon. At this critical juncture, the Sheikh Hasina-led-Awami League government initiated resolute measures against these elements, with the international community, notably the United States, playing a remarkably effective role. Their contribution involved the adept training of members within law enforcement agencies, including the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB), thereby endowing these agencies with the capacity to effectively counteract terrorism and militancy within the nation.

A salient development spotlighted in the report is the October proclamation of operations against Jama’atul Ansar Fil Hindal Sharqiya (JAHS), purportedly an AL-Qaeda-inspired group. Authorities disclosed that JAHS were undergoing training in the Chittagong Hill Tracts(CHT) with intentions of executing attacks elsewhere. In 1996, Sheikh Hasina's first government freed the Chittagong Hill Tracts from the insurgency problem. The Rapid Action Battalion (RAB), a counterterrorism expert unit, launched operations to thwart this potential menace, underscoring a proactive and preemptive stance in the realm of counterterrorism.

The delineation between terrorists and insurgents is rapidly diminishing. In nations where these elements stem from the mainstream population, the efficacy of counterterrorism and counterinsurgency (CT-COIN) operations becomes uncertain. The success of such endeavors hinges on grappling with the intricate socio-political and economic issues at play in these regions. Recognizing that terrorism transcends the bounds of a mere law-and-order predicament, it becomes evident that facile remedies or reliance on police and military interventions are inadequate. But, in reality, the government and its agencies are still successful in curbing the extremist threat in Bangladesh. 

The recent sanction imposed on the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) in Bangladesh by the US State Department, while ostensibly symbolic, has impeded the commendable work and noble purpose that RAB strives to achieve. The repercussions of this sanction are poised to inflict hardship primarily upon the ordinary, peace-loving citizens of Bangladesh. In effect, America appears to be stemming an ostensibly noble initiative against terrorism, assuming a dubious role by obstructing those actively involved in the ongoing battle against terrorism. This situation underscores the complexities and unintended consequences that can arise in the realm of international relations and counterterrorism efforts.

Terrorism, a ubiquitous global phenomenon, is not the exclusive responsibility of any single nation, nor is any nation obligated to combat it in isolation. Rather, it constitutes a collective responsibility, necessitating the engagement of every country. In Bangladesh, the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) is diligently striving to make a meaningful contribution to global peace by adopting a robust stance against local, regional, and international terrorism. Through its concerted efforts, RAB aims to be a proactive participant in the broader collaborative endeavor to mitigate the pervasive threat of terrorism on local, regional, and global scales.

M A Hossain, political and defense analyst based in Bangladesh. He can be reached at: writetomahossain@gmail.com

This article published at :

1. Weekly Blitz, BD :13Dec23

2. The Arabian Post, UAE : 14Dec23

3. OZarab media, Australia : 12Dec23

4. The Eastern Herald, India :13 Dec23

5. The North Lines, India :14Dec23

On the Brink: Bangladesh Faces Political Upheaval Ahead of January Polls.

M A Hossain, 

The political milieu in Bangladesh has been fraught with tension, climaxing in weeks of protests and violent clashes, casting a shadow of apprehension as the scheduled general election on January, 07, 2024, approaches. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), reinvigorated as the main opposition force, has intensified its protests, fervently demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. The crux of their discontent revolves around the insistence on establishing a neutral interim government before the general election, a demand staunchly rebuffed by the incumbent Awami League (AL)-led government. This singular point of contention has deepened the schism between the AL and the BNP, accentuated by the AL's pursuit of a fourth consecutive term, further delineating a widening political chasm. Both major parties exhibit reluctance to engage in meaningful dialogue, casting doubt on the prospects for reconciliation before the impending elections.

In a noteworthy display of strength, the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami orchestrated a "grand rally" on October, 28, advocating their "one-point demand" for a neutral interim election-time government. In response, the AL called for a "peace rally" on the same day. Regrettably, what began as a peaceful assembly devolved into violence, necessitating police intervention to regain control. BNP activists became embroiled in clashes with both police and AL supporters. The day-long street battle, despite initial police restraint, escalated into violence from the BNP rally. This tumult resulted in significant casualties, with BNP supporters attacking police, journalists, setting fire to a police hospital, and assaulting the Chief Justice's residence of the Supreme Court.

While the BNP alleges that the violence was either deliberately provoked or part of government sabotage to discredit their protests. But, the undeniable fact remains—the damage and destruction cannot be credibly denied. In response, the government has initiated a crackdown on the BNP's ranks and files. The move has applauded by the AL as a necessary response to the October atrocities.

Subsequently, the opposition has shifted its political tactics from public demonstrations to nationwide strikes and blockades. As of last week in November, at least 180 public transports were set ablaze. The BNP attempts to portray these incidents as sabotage orchestrated by government agencies or AL supporters. While the AL endeavors to exploit these blockades and strikes as part of their election campaign.

In my opinion, the BNP and its allies have unwittingly fallen into the Awami League's political stratagem by fomenting violence on October, 28. It would be prudent for the BNP to sidestep this Machiavellian ploy orchestrated by the Awami League, thereby enhancing the visibility of their nonviolent campaign and conveying a resounding message to Western nations through heightened public engagement.

 Washington's Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS) marks the inception of a US-led alliance strategically positioned to counterbalance China. Bangladesh and other South Asian nations find themselves at a crossroad amid this superpower rivalry. After the midpoint of President Biden's tenure, the United States, the European Union, and predominantly Western governments have been exerting pressure on Bangladesh for enhancements in democratic processes, human rights, and freedom of expression. Notably, the opposition party BNP and its allies have embraced this initiative.

The Sheikh Hasina-led Awami League government has enjoyed unwavering support from India over the past decade. However, following the recent G20 summit in India, the United States has recalibrated its policy towards India, signaling a reluctance to cede full leadership to India in the South Asian context. The 2 + 2 dialogue in India has further revealed a divergence between India and the United States concerning their stance on Bangladesh. Conversely, China and Russia have been critical of the United States, branding its actions as unwarranted "interference" in Bangladesh's internal affairs. The BNP has denounced Russia and China for their positions on Bangladesh.

Western nations have advocated for a dialogue to resolve Bangladesh's political impasse. While the AL has occasionally agreed to dialogue, it closed this option after announcing the election schedule on November 7. Meanwhile, the BNP has remained relatively silent and less interested to sit with the AL.

The political turbulence unfolds against a backdrop of economic hardship, with a significant portion of the population grappling with the escalating cost of living, particularly the rise in food prices. The country's foreign exchange reserves have halved, dropping from $42 billion to $21 billion by July 2023. Earlier this year, Bangladesh sought assistance from the IMF. Recent concerns expressed by the United States regarding labor law reform in Bangladesh suggest potential dire consequences for the country's RMG sector in terms of exports and imports.

The BNP's strategy aims to leverage Western sentiments and capitalize on public discontent regarding economic challenges. Their movement seeks to corner Hasina into either stepping down or resorting to violence, thereby instigating broader political strife. Hasina, within this limited context, faces two options: reinstate an election-time interim government or relinquish power to the military. While the military's intervention may not immediately favor the BNP, it could eventually level the playing field. Conversely, the AL advocates upholding the constitutional process, gaining moral strength to counter adversities. They believe that lawful pressure can disrupt BNP's leader Tarique Rahman's command and control. If BNP's chain of command falters, Rahman's choices would narrow down to either returning to Dhaka for political survival and potential incarceration or accepting political disaster while remaining in exile.

Amid persistent unrest, the imperative to uphold the right to freedom of assembly and safeguard the well-being of peaceful protestors remains paramount but also a gargantuan task. In this broad and acrimonious political context, compromise is perceived as an existential political threat. The destiny of the nation, inhabited by 180 million people, is not subject to external pressures or internal power plays. True power lies with the common people, and they understand when and how to assert their authority.

M A Hossain, political and defense analyst based in Bangladesh. He can be reached at : writetomahossain@gmail.com 

This article published at :

1. OZarab.media, Australia:03Dec23

2. Pakistan Today, Pak : 04 Dec23

3. Modern Diplomacy, EU: 04 Dec23

4. The New Nation, BD: 06Dec23

5. South Asia Journal, USA: 05Dec23

6. The Asian Age, BD: 07Dec23

7. Indepthnews.com,Ng: 08Dec23

8. Eurasia Review, 09Dec23

9. The Catch Line, Pakistan : 10Dec23

10. The Eastern Herald, India : 13Dec23

The Strategic Significance of Strengthening US-Bangladesh Relations.

M A Hossain & Abdullah Al Mamun, 

In the tapestry of international relations, the partnership between Bangladesh and the United States bears the imprints of a multifaceted journey—a blend of challenges, resilience, and evolving collaborations. History narrates a narrative of support, critical junctures, and mutual aid defining their association. From the struggle for sovereignty to contemporary challenges, this relationship stands as a linchpin for Bangladesh's progress, teeming with opportunities and imperative support. The profound significance of fostering and fortifying this alliance would be an indispensable catalyst for Bangladesh's holistic development and global positioning.

History : A Beacon of Solidarity

The Bangladesh-USA relations since 1971 encapsulate a tale of challenges and resilience. Despite the Nixon-Kissinger administration's strategic stance against Bangladesh's sovereignty due to Cold War dynamics, the American populace, media, and key figures like George Harrison expressed overwhelming solidarity for Bangladesh. This stark contrast between political strategy and public support marked a pivotal phase during East Pakistan's turmoil, condemning Pakistani military actions. Notably, the US, while strategically supporting Pakistan, extended substantial humanitarian aid of $103 million to Bangladeshi refugees in India during the 1971 events. On April 4, 1972, the U.S. swiftly recognized Bangladesh's sovereignty, aiding its prompt entry into the United Nations.

Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman recognized the profound impact of a diplomatic relationship with the US, leading to President Gerald R. Ford's influential visit in 1974, catalyzing discussions on regional security, famine, and flood control. Mr. Rahman adeptly maintained ties with both the USSR and the US, pivotal players in the Cold War, initiating the Non-Aligned Movement for diplomatic reconciliation. His strategic diplomacy established Bangladesh's independence from the oppressive Pakistani regime. These actions showcased Rahman's skillful navigation of global alliances, leveraging relations for Bangladesh's autonomy and development.

Contemporary Collaborations: A Bridge to Progress

The alliance between the United States—a country that imports around 10% Ready-Made Garments from Bangladesh, for example— and Bangladesh has evolved significantly over the years. The U.S. has provided extensive support in crucial sectors, such as food security, agriculture, public health, education, disaster management, women's empowerment, governance, and human rights. The cumulative worth of this assistance reached an estimated USD 11.2 billion in 2022. Plus, bilateral trade flourished, exceeding $14.2 billion in 2022, with Bangladesh exporting goods worth $10.42 billion to the United States during the 2021-2022 fiscal year. Furthermore, the U.S. has already pledged $35 million over the next five years to support Bangladeshi farmers, particularly in mitigating climate-induced challenges and enhancing agricultural yields. This funding, channeled through USAID, will empower small-scale farmers in southern Bangladesh, providing guidance on climate-smart cultivation practices. The United States has also played a significant role in supporting Bangladesh in the global fight against COVID-19, providing vaccines and assistance to Rohingya refugees who fled to Bangladesh from Myanmar after receiving an array of inhuman torture in Myanmar. Additionally, the U.S. has supported Bangladesh's efforts in counterterrorism and regional stability through military training and cooperation and others.

Challenges: Navigating Current Complexities

In recent years, the Bangladesh-U.S. relationship has been struggling with tons of unavoidable and unprecedented challenges. Concerns raised by the United States include electoral irregularities, human rights violations, extrajudicial killings, political tensions, and Bangladesh's deepening ties with the Beijing-Moscow alliance, perceived as contrary to U.S. interests. These concerns have resulted in sanctions on select high-ranking law enforcement officials, the suspension of Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) privileges, and Bangladesh's non-participation in the Democracy Summit. The knock-on effects of these steps against Bangladesh, which is a “negative and red signal” to the Bangladesh administration. Unless it is solved, at least it is mitigated, by adopting a wide range of measures, Bangladesh’s economy will—hands down— suffer a lot down the line.

To reinvigorate and improve this overarching relationship, several proactive measures can be taken. High-level diplomatic engagement must take center stage, assuring the U.S. of Bangladesh's commitment to solving human rights and electoral issues. Civil society, including international non-governmental organizations, advocacy groups, and think tanks, can serve as catalysts and bridges for mutual understanding. Public diplomacy initiatives may generate a more favorable narrative, underscoring success stories and fostering discussions that address contemporary challenges. Crisis communication strategies are crucial for managing and mitigating potential conflicts, ensuring that communication during crises prevents escalations. Moreover, Track II Diplomacy—unofficial dialogues involving think tanks, academics, and influential figures—can help find critical issues and build trust. These types of recommendations are the stepping stones toward a robust, forward-looking partnership.

As Bangladesh aspires to achieve holistic development across democracy, technology, education, society, and the digital sphere, nurturing a symbiotic and unblemished alliance with the United States becomes imperative. Diplomatically persuading American authorities about Bangladesh's relationships with China and Russia, emphasizing economic development, is vital. As a nation with immense potential, Bangladesh must navigate adept diplomacy to secure its place in the global arena. Policies promoting enhanced bilateral cooperation with the U.S. serve as a powerful tool in building a strong and enduring relationship. It's a chance for Bangladesh to emulate the mutual respect and cooperation in between.

In conclusion, nurturing a robust partnership with the United States is not just a choice; it's a necessity for Bangladesh's progress on the world stage. With the right approach, both nations can embark on a journey of mutual growth, benefiting not only themselves but also the larger global community. Bangladesh should bear in mind its foreign policy: Friendship to all, malice to none.

This article published at :

1. The Asian Age, BD: 15Nov23

2. Modern Ghana : 14 Nov23

Can Beijing Mediate an Israel-Hamas Ceasefire?

M. A. Hossain,

As the conflict between Israel and Hamas intensifies, the death toll of civilians in Gaza has risen to more than 10,000, including 3,700 children. In this catastrophic context, China has stepped forward to mediate between the parties. Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, discussed the conflict situation with officials in Washington, perceiving the fear of a wider regional war. The US counterpart has assured full support for working with China to find a resolution. President Xi Jinping has dispatched his Middle East special envoy, Zhai Jun, to the region to meet with Arab leaders. There is hope that only China, with strong diplomatic relations with both Israel and Palestine, as well as with Iran, which backs Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, can mediate a ceasefire. Beijing has previously emerged as an impartial and successful mediator, notably brokering a rare détente between Iran and Saudi Arabia. It has also been one of the most vocal proponents of a ceasefire in UN meetings. However, China's initial silence and its first statement on the conflict have angered Israel. Apparently, Mr. Netanyahu is not in the mood to listen to any world leader. So, it will be a gargantuan task for Beijing to bring all the actors to the table.

China has consistently supported the Palestinian cause, owing to its alignment with Maoism and liberation movements in the 1960s and 1970s. Chinese Communist Party founder, Mao Zedong, even sent weapons to Palestinians in support of 'National Liberation' movements worldwide. Mao even compared Israel to Taiwan, both backed by the US imperialism. During those years, Beijing armed and trained the Palestine Liberation Organization and other Palestinian militant groups. After Mao's death in 1976, China began opening up to the world and softened its position. It normalized relations with Israel in 1992. China's strategic approach to the Middle East for more than a decade has sought to portray itself as a friend to all in the region and the enemy of none.

For the past decade, China has invested considerable diplomatic energy in building its influence in the Middle East. President Xi has adopted the policy to promote multi-alignment among countries in the region, described in Chinese government documents as "balance diplomacy" and "positive balancing." Briefly, balance diplomacy entails not taking sides in rival countries, and positive balancing aims to create a strategic balance among global or regional powers in the Middle East. Chinese foreign policy initiatives are designed to appeal to countries in the Global South that feel increasingly alienated from the US-led rules-based international order.

In 2016, China entered into a comprehensive strategic partnership with Saudi Arabia, and in 2020, an agreement of 25-year cooperation was signed with Iran. It has expanded economic ties with other Gulf countries, including Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Oman. China has also deepened its economic ties with Egypt. Beijing is the largest investor in the Suez Canal Area Development Project and reconstruction projects in Iraq and Syria. So, after the Saudi-Iran breakthrough, Beijing began to position itself as an impartial and trustworthy mediator in the region.

Beijing's initial response to the conflict was to continue with its balanced diplomacy. China did not condemn Hamas; instead, it urged both sides to "exercise restraint" and to embrace the "two-state solution." This was consistent with Beijing's long-standing policy of "non-interference" in other countries' internal affairs and its fundamental strategic approach to the region. However, to counter Western powers and their allies, Beijing sought to highlight its positive balancing and used its veto power at the United Nations. This stance became the strong appeal of the Global South. China has significant economic engagement with the Middle East and North Africa, and its dependency on Middle Eastern countries for the energy sector and the Belt and Road Initiative encourages its efforts to challenge the West's strategic maneuver. Africa and Latin America sympathize with the Palestinian cause, and Arab nations are united on the Palestinian issue. So, China is likely making a strategic move to gain the support of these nations, which are also increasingly searching for an alternative partner to the US.

In June, China signed a strategic partnership deal with the authority of the West Bank. Beijing also has a lucrative tech-sector trade with Israel, worth $1 billion in semiconductors per year. China has previously supported normalization efforts between Israel and Saudi Arabia. However, Chinese diplomatic actions are far more neutral than the stance of the US and its allies.

Global powers like Russia and the USA have overtly sided with their strategic partners in the Israel-Hamas conflict. For Israel, after enduring humiliating and devastating sufferings, the renowned 'Mr. Security,' Benjamin Netanyahu, and the army are subjected to immense domestic pressure. The Israeli Government and the army need to achieve tangible gains and win over Hamas and the Palestine Islamic Jihad. But, psychologically, Israel has lost the battle. Their formidable espionage agency failed to warn them, and more than 200 hostages were held by Hamas, making the conflict very critical. The Israeli indefensible army is now killing innocent civilians and children in Gaza instead of Hamas fighters. This disproportionate killing cannot continue for an extended period. In this context, it will be a golden opportunity for Beijing to burnish its reputation.

China's economic interests in the Middle East would be endangered if the conflict widens. The Chinese government has maintained a relatively balanced relationship with all actors related to the conflict, including the Palestinians, Arabs, Israel, Türkiye, Egypt, and Iran. It would be relatively comfortable for Beijing to bring all the players to the table. Moreover, China will not miss the opportunity to position itself as a superpower to rival the US in a multipolar world.

M A Hossain, political and defense analyst based in Bangladesh. He can be reached at: writetomahossain@gmail.com.

This article published at : 

1. The Geopolitics : 08 Nov 23

2. Daily Times, Pakistan : 10 Nov23

3. OZarab.media, Australia : 10 Nov23

4. The Nigerian Voice, Nigeria : 09Nov23

5. The Pakistan Daily, Pak : 10 Nov 23

6. The Asian Age, BD: 14 Nov 23

7. IDN-InDepthNews.com: 19 Nov23

8. The Arabian Post, UAE :29Nov23

The Battle Scenario in The Middle East.

M A Hossain, 

On October 7, 2023, Israel suffered its most devastating attack in decades, orchestrated by the Iran-backed Palestinian militant organization, Hamas. This conflict has significant implications for regional and international dynamics of geopolitics and geostrategic, based on roles played by various nations.  On the day when US President Joe Biden visited Israel, a notable meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping took place in Beijing. They discussed shared interests about the Ukraine crisis, Pacific security, and certainly the security situation in the Middle East(ME).

Before delving into the battle scenario of the ME, let us discuss the geostrategic interests first which are driving the battle drill of superpowers centering on the Israel-Hamas conflict. 

Firstly, the United States and its European and Asian allies are not interested in opening a new confrontational font beyond Ukraine and the Pacific.  This ME front could be a quagmire for the USA and that could alter the global order, its rules, and the hierarchy of its actors.  Secondly, the Eastern Mediterranean's security system is in disarray, primarily due to growing tensions between Russia and Israel since the annexation of Crimea.  Israel's support for Ukraine against Russia has strained the relations. Thirdly, the increasing integration of Iran into the Arab political space after the Iran-Saudi agreement has threatened US-brokered peace agreements between Israel and Arab nations. Lastly, the ME, particularly the Eastern Mediterranean, has become the critical point for major geopolitical projects like the Silk Road and the economic corridor between India and Europe. Consequently. It has increased the cost of conflict.

The Biden administration knows, any engagement of the US military in the Middle East would be a 'Trojan Horse' for America, but also important to extend its overt support for Israel ahead of the upcoming presidential elections. The political orientation of the Biden administration towards Israel is to maintain the strategic and historical relationship.  The influential Jewish community and evangelical pressure groups play a decisive factor in American presidential elections. 

The USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier, along with another carrier named USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, has made commitments to resolve the crisis in the Eastern Mediterranean. It is a rare incident after World War II, where two carrier groups are deployed in the same regional conflict. 

The USS Gerald R. Ford, a new addition to the American naval fleet, has deployed at least half of its strike group to increase regional security in the Adriatic Sea. The carrier is accompanied by the cruiser Normandy and destroyers Thomas Hunder, Ramage, Roosevelt, and Corney. All these are modern Arleigh Burke-class vessels.

This also known as the 12 Carrier Strike Group (12 CSG), has been deployed in various locations in the Eastern Mediterranean, including near the Red Sea, to deter missile threats and maintain a presence in the region. The extensive deployment of 12 CSG does not suggest an imminent military confrontation and advises the reduction of the level of risk in this area after satellite observations.

The potential restoration, refueling, or enhanced security arrangements near Crete, Greece, would put the striking group out of range from Hezbollah's long-range missile threats present in the Eastern Mediterranean region. Furthermore, American reconnaissance aircraft, the Boeing P-8 Poseidon, RC-135V/W Rivet, remain active in this area to provide ongoing surveillance guidance.

The temporary entry of the Carrier Strike Group into the European theater of operations of the US Sixth Fleet elevates the significance of the European theater in the European Command's operational sphere. However, increased hostilities and a potential wider regional conflict led the British military logistics support ship to be deployed for possible evacuation. On the other hand, the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower is expected to advance towards the Arabian Gulf, indicating implications for a more significant military movement in this region. The US Department of Defense has deployed 300 troops to US Central Command to deter any outside groups from escalating the Israel-Hamas conflict and to protect the US troops already deployed in that area. Approximately 2,000 troops have been ordered to be prepared for deployment within 24 hours.

The Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has strategically altered the deployment of its naval escort groups to challenge the leadership of the United States Navy in international maritime security operations. Due to the presence of China's sole foreign naval base in Djibouti, the Middle East has gained importance in terms of naval deployments to protect oil trade routes. The current PLAN involves three naval escort groups, 43rd, 44th, and 45th, each consisting of a destroyer, a pair of frigates, and a logistical support vessel, actively monitoring Kuwait and the Horn of Africa.

Moreover, Russia has taken a clear stance on the Israel-Palestine conflict, aligning with Israel's actions in condemnation of the Palestinian approach. Russia's naval activities in the Black Sea, the Mediterranean, and the Black Sea region are driven by dual objectives, influencing Ukraine's actions and serving as a warning signal in the Black Sea area. Importantly, the deployment also indicates that the Russian military can intervene in the East Mediterranean. Russia's kilo-class diesel submarine is detected in the Dover Strait of the English Channel, which is heading towards the Baltic Sea. Its hypersonic Kinzhal missiles are capable of reaching targets in the East Mediterranean. 

Israeli indiscriminate airstrikes caused the loss of 9,000 lives, including 3,700 children. Many countries, especially those not in the Western world, are saying that powerful nations and their allies shouldn't bend the rules of the international system to their advantage. Utilizing this system only strengthens the argument that some nations are using "human rights" for their own purposes.

M A Hossain, political and defense analyst based in Bangladesh. 

Email : writetomahossain@gmail.com

 

This published at :

1 The Nation, Pakistan : 05Nov23

2. OZ Arab Media, Australia : 06 Nov 23

3. The Nigerian Voice, Nigeria : 06 Nov23

4. The Catch Line, Pakistan : 07Nov23

5. The Asian Age, BD: 08 Nov 23

6. Pakistan Observer, Pak : 12 Nov 23

বহুমুখী বৈশ্বিক মেরুকরণ আজ এক বাস্তবতা।

এম এ হোসাইন, 

রাশিয়ার প্রেসিডেন্ট ভ্লাদিমির পুতিন ভালদাই ক্লাবে যে নীতি নির্ধারণী বক্তৃতা দিয়েছেন তা খুবই গুরুত্বপূর্ণ। তিনি ঘোষণা করেন যে মার্কিন যুক্তরাষ্ট্রের নিজস্ব বিশ্ব ব্যবস্থাপনা চাপিয়ে দেয়ার প্রবণতা আর গ্রহণযোগ্য নয়। তিনি পরামর্শ দেন যে বর্তমান ভূ-রাজনৈতিক বাস্তবতাকে মার্কিন নীতিনির্ধারকগন যেন মেনে নিয়ে তার স্বীকৃতি প্রদান করেন। তিনি জোর দিয়ে বলেন, ইউক্রেন যুদ্ধ পশ্চিমারা রাশিয়ার উপর চাপিয়ে দিয়েছিল যা তাদের আধিপত্যবাদী বৈশ্বিক ব্যবস্থার সম্প্রসারণের জ্বাজ্জল্য প্রমাণ। এই যুদ্ধে রাশিয়ার কোন সাম্রাজ্যবাদী বা আঞ্চলিক উচ্চাকাঙ্ক্ষার অভিপ্রায় এখনো পরিলক্ষিত হয়নি। ১৯৯২ সালে, প্রাক্তন সোভিয়েত ইউনিয়ন ভেঙে যাওয়ার পর পরাশক্তি গুলোর মাঝে একটি চুক্তি হয়েছিল যে ন্যাটো নতুন আবির্ভূত প্রজাতন্ত্র গুলিকে অন্তর্ভুক্ত করার জন্য পূর্বে তার সদস্যপথ বাড়াবে না। কিন্তু, পশ্চিমা শক্তিগুলো এই চুক্তি  লংঘন করেছে এবং ২০১৪ সালে পশ্চিমা সমর্থিত এক অভ্যুত্থানে জেলেনস্কি ইউক্রেনের ক্ষমতা এসেছিলেন। তিনি অবিলম্বে ইউক্রেন কে ইইউতে অন্তর্ভুক্ত করার প্রচেষ্টা শুরু করেন। যেহেতু, ইউক্রেন রাশিয়ার প্রভাব বলয়ের  মধ্যে পড়ে তাই রাশিয়া এর বিরোধিতা করে এবং বর্তমানে এই সংঘাতের দিকে নিয়ে যায়। প্রায় দুই বছরব্যাপী এই চলমান যুদ্ধে ইউক্রেনের অনেক বড় বড় শহর ধ্বংস হয়ে গেছে এবং কিছু অঞ্চল গণভোটের মাধ্যমে রাশিয়ান ফেডারেশনের অন্তর্ভুক্ত হয়েছে।

ইউক্রেন  তার বহুল-প্রচারিত বসন্ত আক্রমণের পর দেখা গেছে যে তার আশানুরূপ অগ্রগতি লাভ হয়নি বরং দীর্ঘস্থায়ী যুদ্ধ চালিয়ে যাবার মত তার পর্যাপ্ত লোকবল ও যুদ্ধ সরঞ্জাম নেই। তাছাড়া ন্যাটো এবং মার্কিন যুক্তরাষ্ট্রের পর্যাপ্ত গোলাবারুদ ও যুদ্ধ সরঞ্জাম সরবরাহ করার অবস্থানে নেই। আমেরিকার ভিতরেই নীতিনির্ধারকগন যুদ্ধ চালিয়ে যাবার ঘোর বিরোধী। সুতরাং এটা স্পষ্ট হয়ে উঠেছে যে ইউক্রেন এই যুদ্ধে হেরে গেছে।

রাশিয়াকে অর্থনৈতিক নিষেধাজ্ঞার ফাঁদে ফেলে তার অর্থনীতিকে চেপে ধরার যে কৌশল মার্কিন যুক্তরাষ্ট্র নিয়েছিল তা দৃশ্যত ভুল পদক্ষেপ হিসেবে উঠে এসেছে। ব্রিকস, নিউ ডেভেলপমেন্ট ব্যাংক, এশিয়ান ইনফ্রাস্ট্রাকচার  ইনভেস্টমেন্ট ব্যাংক, ইত্যাদি পদক্ষেপ গুলো মূলত পশ্চিমাদের এই নিষেধাজ্ঞা, বৈশ্বিক অর্থনৈতিক প্রতিষ্ঠান এবং সুইফটকে রাজনৈতিক হাতিয়ার হিসেবে অপব্যবহারের প্রত্যক্ষ ফল। পুতিন পশ্চিমা শক্তি দ্বারা ক্ষতিগ্রস্থ দেশগুলো  কে সাহায্য করার জন্য জাতিসংঘের নিষ্ক্রিয়তারও সমালোচনা করেছেন। তিনি জাতিসংঘের সংস্কার ও ভারত, ব্রাজিল এবং দক্ষিণ আফ্রিকাকে নিরাপত্তা পরিষদের সদস্য হিসেবে অন্তর্ভুক্ত করার প্রস্তাব করেছেন। নিঃসন্দেহে এই প্রস্তাবের পিছনে একটি বড় পরিবর্তন লক্ষ্য করা যায় যা ভূ-রাজনৈতিক বাস্তবতা ও কৌশলগত প্রভাব কে ইঙ্গিত করে। 

ন্যাটোর সম্প্রসারণ রাশিয়ার জন্য একটি ভূ-কৌশলগত হুমকি স্বরূপ। চীন, দক্ষিণ চীন সাগরে তাদের ভূ-কৌশলগত শক্ত অবস্থানকে নিজেদের অধিকার হিসেবে দেখে। চীনের উন্নতি দেখিয়েছে যে এই দেশ অর্থনৈতিক  নিষেধাজ্ঞা বা বাণিজ্য নিষেধাজ্ঞা প্রতিরোধ করার ক্ষমতা রাখে। বর্তমানে, রাশিয়ার সাথে চীনের কৌশলগত ঘনিষ্ঠ সহাবস্থান এবং বেল্ট এন্ড রোড ইনিশিয়েটিভ এর অধীনে অন্যান্য দেশের সাথে তার মজবুত  সম্পর্ক বর্তমান শতাব্দীতে যে কোন মানদণ্ডে সম্পূর্ণ ভিন্ন কৌশলগত  পদ্ধতির প্রতিনিধিত্ব করে। যখন পশ্চিমা মিত্রশক্তিরা  সন্ত্রাসবাদের বিরুদ্ধে যুদ্ধের নামে বহু জাতিকে ধ্বংস করে  চলছিল তখন চীন তার' নরম শক্তি' প্রয়োগের মাধ্যমে অনুন্নত রাষ্ট্রগুলোকে তাদের অভ্যন্তরীণ বিষয়ে হস্তক্ষেপ না করে, তার কাঠামোগত এবং অর্থনৈতিক উন্নয়নের অংশীদার হয়েছে। এটি কেবল মধ্যপ্রাচ্য,  দক্ষিণ ও পূর্ব এশিয়ায় নয় আফ্রিকাতেও এর প্রভাব বাড়িয়েছে। চীনের এই উত্থান  পশ্চিমা শক্তির কাছে শঙ্কা ও উদ্বেগের জন্ম দিয়েছে। তাছাড়া, আফ্রিকায় বিশেষ করে পশ্চিম ও পূর্ব আফ্রিকায় এক এক করে পশ্চিমা মিত্রদের আধিপত্য হারানো পশ্চিমা যুগের সমাপ্তিও বটে।

 মার্কিন যুক্তরাষ্ট্র ও তার মিত্রদের এই আগ্রাসী পররাষ্ট্রনীতির কারণে একটি কৌশলগত ব্লকের আবির্ভাব ঘটেছে যা পূর্ব এবং পশ্চিমের মাঝে এক বিভাজন রেখা একে দিয়েছে।মি: পুতিন জি-২০ সম্মেলন কে সমালোচনা করে বলেন, জি-২০ সম্মেলন মূলত  সদস্য দেশগুলোর মধ্যে অর্থনৈতিক সমন্বয়ের জন্য সৃষ্ট কিন্তু বর্তমানে তার রাজনৈতিকভাবে ব্যবহার করার চেষ্টা চলছে। তিনি এর ভবিষ্যৎ নিয়ে সন্দেহ প্রকাশ করেছেন। মধ্য প্রাচ্যে, যুক্তরাষ্ট্র তাদের স্ট্র্যাটেজিক পার্টনার সৌদি আরবের সাথে সম্পর্কের টানাপোড়ন চলছে বেশকিছু সময় ধরে। তার উপর, চীনের মধ্যস্থতায় রিয়াদ-তেহরান এর কূটনৈতিক সম্পর্ক স্থাপন পশ্চিমাদের কাছে এক বজ্রাঘাত। মোহাম্মদ বিন সালমান যখন অতিরিক্ত তেল উত্তোলনের ব্যাপারে প্রেসিডেন্ট বাইডেনের অনুরোধ উপেক্ষা করেন, তখনই নিশ্চিত হয়েছিল মধ্য প্রাচ্যে যুক্তরাষ্ট্রের আধিপত্য পতনমুখী। 

সম্প্রতি জো বাইডেন চীনের বেল্ট এন্ড রোড ইনিশিয়েটিভ এর পাল্টা কৌশল হিসাবে মধ্যপ্রাচ্য এবং ইসরাইলের মধ্য দিয়ে একটি ট্রান্স-আটলান্টিক রুট তৈরির পরিকল্পনা গ্রহণ করেন। কিন্তু, হামাস এবং ইসরাইলের মধ্যে মধ্যপ্রাচ্যে সাম্প্রতিক যুদ্ধের দামামা এই পরিকল্পনার কবর দিয়েছে। 

দক্ষিণ এবং পূর্ব এশিয়ায় চীনের প্রভাব ব্যাপকভাবে বৃদ্ধি পেয়েছে। যুক্তরাষ্ট্র অন্তত এশিয়ায় চীন থেকে এক ধাপ পিছিয়ে আছে। যুক্তরাষ্ট্রের ইন্দো-প্যাসিফিক স্ট্রাটেজিক অংশীদার রাষ্ট্রসমূহ যেমন: ভারত, জাপান, দক্ষিণ কোরিয়া ও অস্ট্রেলিয়া চীনের প্রভাব বলয়ের কাছে কৌশলগত চাপে রয়েছে। গত দুই দশক ধরে যুক্তরাষ্ট্র এশিয়ার রাষ্ট্রসমূহের সরকারের  সাথে অংশীদারিত্বের সম্পর্ক বজায় রেখে চলছিল কিন্তু চীন জনগণের সাথে জনগণের  সম্পর্কের নীতি বজায় রেখেছে যার ফল আজ তারা পাচ্ছে। ইউক্রেন যুদ্ধে রাশিয়া বরাবর বলে যাচ্ছে  তারা শান্তিপূর্ণ সমাধান চায় কিন্তু পশ্চিমারা তাদের একগুয়ে নীতির কারণে আজ একটি জাতি ধ্বংসের দ্বারপ্রান্তে।

নিঃসন্দেহে, হামাস-ইসরাইল যুদ্ধে ইরানের যথেষ্ট সমর্থন রয়েছে। ইসরাইলের আগ্রাসী এবং উদ্ধ্যত পদক্ষেপ ফিলিস্তিনি জনগণের মাঝে চরম হতাশা এবং ক্ষোভ  কাজ করছিল যা হামাসের উপর এক ধরনের কৌশলগত চাপ সৃষ্টি করেছিল। তার পাশাপাশি ইরানের অভ্যন্তরীণ রাজনৈতিক ইস্যু, শিয়া আধিপত্যশীল মধ্যপ্রাচ্য গঠন এবং ইসরাইল-সুন্নী রাষ্ট্র সমূহ বিশেষ করে সৌদি আরবের সম্পর্ক স্বাভাবিকরণ ভেস্তে  দেবার উদ্দেশ্যে এই "অপারেশন  আল-আকসা ফ্লাড"  শুরু করতে হয়। রাশিয়া এবং চীন অবশ্যই প্রস্তুত ছিল মধ্যপ্রাচ্যে ইসরায়েলের সমর্থনে যুক্তরাষ্ট্রের যেকোনো আগ্রাসী পদক্ষেপের পাল্টা জবাব দিতে। যদিও ফিলিস্তিনের স্বাধীনতাকামী সশস্ত্র সংগঠনগুলো কর্তৃক জিম্মি আটকের  ঘটনাটি এই যুদ্ধের এক ধরনের জটিল ডাইমেনশন দিয়েছে যা যুদ্ধকে দীর্ঘস্থায়ী করতে এবং অনুকূলে রাখতে ফিলিস্তিনের স্বাধীনতাকামীদের সহায়ক হবে। যুক্তরাষ্ট্র যদি উন্মাদমোখর নেতানিয়াহুর খপ্পরে পড়ে এই যুদ্ধে জড়ায় তাহলে এটাই হবে যুক্তরাষ্ট্রের জন্য  বিশ্বের এক নম্বর পরাশক্তি থেকে পতনের কফিনে শেষ পেরেক ঠুকা।

এম এ হোসাইন একজন রাজনৈতিক ও নিরাপত্তা বিশ্লেষক। 

আর্টিকেল টি প্রকাশিত হয়েছে :

১. বিডি রিপোর্টস২৪.কম: ৩০ অক্টোবর ২৩

Israel Invasion Was Inevitable For Iran.

 M A Hossain, 

On October 7, 2023, Israel suffered its most devastating attack in decades, orchestrated by the Iran-backed Palestinian militant organization, Hamas. Notably, Hamas's startling well-planned land-sea-air surprise assault from Gaza on Southern Israeli communities claimed the lives of hundreds and took approximately 150 individuals hostage, both military and civilian personnel. Israel's most cataclysmic ordeal has remarkably coincided with the 50th commemoration of the 1973 Yom Kippur War. 

To fathom the strategic rationale behind Hamas's daring gambit, it is imperative to delve into the intricate landscape of Arab politics, coupled with the burgeoning tensions in Jerusalem and the West Bank. After a comprehensive analysis of the root causes, it becomes apparent that Hamas has no alternative but to launch a fully-fledged offensive against Israel with the backing of Iran, which aspires to establish Shia dominance in the Middle East(ME).

Iran's political motivation lies in destabilizing illegally occupied Jewish settlers, Israel to garner sympathy within the Arab Muslim nations. This endeavor is ostensibly manifested through Iran's advocacy for the liberation of Al Aqsa Mosque, the third-holiest site in the Islamic world.  Nevertheless, beneath the facade of this noble cause, Iran's ultimate motive is to emerge as a Shia-dominated nation in the ME. An examination of the current demography of the ME further underscores this transformation, which stands in stark contrast to the landscape of decades past. 

Beginning with Iraq, once a Sunni-dominated nation, has undergone a demographic shift with Shia constituents now comprising 60% of the population, alongside 20% Sunni and 20% Kurdish. The Shia militia commander in Iraq has openly declared his intention to sweep away the Sunni population. Lebanon, on the other hand, finds itself under the sway of the Shia militia Hezbollah.  It transformed from the formerly known Harkatul Amali in 1985. Harkatul Amali had previously been involved in repelling Palestinian refuses from the Lebanese border and had been associated with reported atrocities. However, following the year 1987, their strategy shifted towards courting sympathy from Palestinians.  Syria is ruled by the Shia government. A significant portion of Yemen, including its capital Sana, is controlled by the Shia militia known as Houthi. 

 The region mentioned above has all experienced gruesome Shia-Sunni conflicts, an enduring conundrum that traces its lineage through centuries. Notably, in this convoluted equation, Hamas, a Sunni militant group, is intriguingly backed by Shia Iran. So, it is just a political gambit to earn the sympathy of oppressed Arab nations and to claim the mantle of leadership in the Islamic world.

Now the billion-dollar question is why Hamas or defect to Iran has engaged in an uneven war with Israel. Obviously, several factors shed light on this matter, and it becomes evident that Iran is pushed on the brink of power dynamics in the ME.

The recent geopolitical development centering on the Middle East has stoked the flare of conflict in the Palestine-Israel relationship. The increasing tendency of Arab nations to establish peace agreements with Israel is exemplified by the 2020 Abraham Accords, involving the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco. There has recently been strong speculation that Saudi Arabia may follow suit in forging an accord with Israel.

Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu has made his stance unequivocal through public declarations that he prioritizes peace with Arab States over eventual peace with Palestinians. This paradigm shift in the priorities of Arab States has raised great concerns among all Palestinians about relinquishing their support for the Palestinian cause.  Furthermore, it diminishes the pressure on Israel to reach a settlement with the Palestinian people. 

Hamas adopted a strategy to surpass its rivals, including the Fatah faction currently in charge of the West Bank. It hinges on harnessing the pent-up Palestinian frustration stemming from their plight. This approach put Hamas as the authentic voice of resistance against Israel and the ongoing occupation. The angrier Palestinians are at Israel, the greater Hamas's political incentives in garnering sympathy from the broader Arab nations. Hamas's military operation will likely cause Saudi Arabia to hold back from normalizing relations with Israel, at least for the time being. 

There are some internal issues that have provoked Hamas to launch "Operation Al Aqsa Storm" against Israel. The Israeli government, formed by PM Benjamin Netanyahu in December, represents the most right-wing administration in Israeli history. This government has made no secret of its desire to annex the West Bank and has permitted substantial expansion of Jewish settlements in the territory, which are illegal under international law. Furthermore, the longstanding blockade of the Gaza Strip enforced by Israel and Egypt since 2007 has inflicted severe impediments on Gaza's economic growth and precipitated deteriorating living conditions for its residents.

Ignoring the peace treaty, the visits to the Temple Mount by Israeli minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and other Israeli tourists have been perceived as desecration of the Al Aqsa site. These visits were considered a provocation for all Palestinians. In response to this provocation, the aggrieved young generation in the West Bank formed a loose grouping known as the "Lions' Den".  These developments and frustration among ordinary Palestinians put tremendous pressure on Hamas to go for retaliation against the suppressive Israeli government.

There is also ideological pressure from the Middle East-based Sunni militant offshoot of Al-Qaeda. Because the non-operative posture of Hamas may create a void among the aggrieved and oppressed Palestinians which could potentially be filled by al-Qaida. In addition, Netanyahu's prime focus was on the West Bank, where the majority of the defense forces were deployed. Meanwhile, leaving a skeletal presence of forces along the Gaza border has presented Hamas with a strategic window to launch their offensive. 

The potential for Saudi Arabia to recognize Israeli sovereignty after 75 years of statehood would have diminished Iran's influence in the Islamic world, while concurrently uniting two of Iran's staunch adversaries.  Iran has always been the single largest sponsor for Hamas of $100 million per year, including military training and humanitarian assistance. It is more likely that Iran has backed and bid for the Hamas offensive. However, it is essential to recognize that Iran has been facing domestic challenges since the Killing of Masha Amini last year. The nation has witnessed a gradual erosion of legitimacy in the eyes of its people, owing to domestic unrest, economic woes, and international isolation. Therefore, Iran found itself in dire need of this conflict when its survival depended to a large degree on symbiotic relationships with these extremist groups. 

Russia's longstanding engagement in Middle East conflicts is a well-documented facet of its foreign policy. The country maintains close ties with Iran, in addition to Hamas.  Recently, Russia has hosted top Hamas political leadership in Moscow.  So, it would be surprising that Russia was not well aware of Hamas's invasion.  Russia stands to benefit if the Israel-Palestine conflict continues to persist, potentially as a means to redirect the focus of the United States and the international community away from the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Both Russia and China seek to drag the USA into a new campaign in the ME. If the USA opens a new front beside Ukraine, that could trigger a domestic political upheaval in the USA.  No doubt, this could be the last nail to put in the coffin of the USA's supremacy.  US taxpayers are bitterly experienced with the past military interventions in Afghanistan, Iraq, and recently Ukraine. 

In my opinion, the conflict between Hamas(and its alignment with Iran) and Israel would be horrendous than ever before. Israel is taking time to gather detailed intelligence regarding the hostages. At this moment, Netanyahu's priority is the safe release of all abductees and then launches a full-scale ground assault to capture the Gaza Strip. Beforehand, Israel needs to clear villages and towns of any remaining Hamas fighters.  This presents Israel with an opportunity to integrate Gaza with horrific ground incursions, causing devastating infrastructure damage and resulting in heavy casualties on the Palestinian side. It would not come as a surprise if Israel finds itself engaged on multiple fronts, confronting not only Hamas but also the Lion's Den, Hezbollah, and Arab Israelis living in Israel. The US is likely to limit its involvement to providing military assistance including intelligence sharing, and military equipment for the full-scale destruction of Hamas. Nevertheless, it is worth noting that Netanyahu has long harbored a desire to employ the US military might to punish Iran.

Indeed, it is too early to predict the plausible facts at this juncture. It is essential to acknowledge that every nation observes its special days, putting security forces on red alert. I would deny that Mossad (Israeli espionage agency) was unaware of its potential vulnerabilities on a day marked with a red alert. For now, the hostage situation has introduced a complex dimension to the formidable Israeli counter-offensive and would be more critical if there were US citizens among the hostages. Meanwhile, it is clear who is suffering the greatest consequences, not the radical leaders on either side, but ordinary people. Hamas's initial achievement is that Israeli forces are not indefensible, and the ultimate achievement could be a broader reconfiguration of their engagement.  That may bring the much-accepted Two-State theory into reality. However, the intricacies of the present situation demand multidimensional approaches that go beyond military strategies and delve deep into the political and social facets of this conflict.

M A Hossain, political and defense analyst based in Bangladesh. Email: writetomahossain@gmail.com

This article published at :

1. Modern Diplomacy, EU: 15 Oct23

2. The Arabian Post, UAE : 15 Oct23

3. The Catch Line, Pakistan : 16 Oct 23

US Strategic Engagement in the Bay of Bengal: Navigating Superpower Rivalry.

M A Hossain, 

Over the past two decades, the geopolitical landscape of the Indian Ocean has undergone a profound transformation. China,  once viewed the Indian Ocean as the "Far Sea"  has enhanced its influence in East Asia and expanded its reach as far as Europe. India has emerged as a dominant maritime force in the Indian Ocean. Meanwhile, to contain India, China has invested billions of dollars in South Asian nations, including Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Myanmar. This strategic maneuver, coupled with China's strong presence in the South China Sea has left the Bay of Bengal as a focal point for Washington’s ambitions to assert dominance in the Indo-Pacific region. 

The preceding half of the century saw the United States and its allies primarily focused on the Middle East and Africa. Their approach often involved aggressive tactics like regime changes, intimidation, and, in some instances, the elimination of perceived threats. In contrast, China adopted a "soft power" strategy in East and South Asia with non-interference in domestic affairs and economic and infrastructural developments. However, as the new century dawned, Beijing's relations with South and East Asia began to expand and deepened significantly in line with its broader efforts to 'Go Global'.

This transformative shift has placed Beijing in a formidable position to compete with Washington at a time when Indo-Pacific nations increasingly lean towards China. Consequently, a significant strategic maneuver has unfolded by the US, centering the Bay of Bengal, particularly in Bangladesh. 

For nearly two decades, Washington's priorities in South Asia were significantly influenced by the conflict in Afghanistan. Concurrently, a strategic partnership with New Delhi was evolving within the geopolitics of the Asia-Pacific, later the Indo-Pacific. President Donald Trump first introduced Washington’s " Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP)" vision. Washington’s Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS) is marked as the beginning of a US-led alliance aimed at containing China.  However, China's soft power tactics have ensnared and indebted nations along the Indo-Pacific shorelines.

China's strategic infrastructure projects, including seaports like  Gwadar in Pakistan, Hambantota in Sri Lanka, and Kyauk Pyu in Myanmar, as part of the "String of Pearls" strategy mark to contain India and secure a strategic advantage in the Indo-Pacific region. China's relations with  North Korea, Indonesia, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Bangladesh, and Myanmar have successfully counterbalanced the  US and Indian geostrategic maneuvers. Beijing forced New Delhi to devote time and resources to its neighbors rather than extend influence into East Asia. Subsequently, India's Bharatiya Janata Party(BJP) government could not substitute China's role in its neighbors. That is why, Washington’s supremacy in the Indo-Pacific is now at stake and necessitates a more robust,  action-oriented approach with the Bay of Bengal as a prime theater to establish its hard presence.  

In response, the United States has reevaluated its geostrategic approach towards the region to make its policies less about influencing the allied governments and more about engaging with people-to-people in South Asian nations. While, the United States sought to make the BJP  see  China through its eyes, and BJP also tried to showcase Indo-Pacific nations through its eyes. But, in the end, Washington has not gained any geopolitical leverage from India's BJP.  While the USA was engaged with countering extremist groups in South Asia and sought to increase the capability of those nations to fight against terrorism, at that time, China was enhancing cooperation, low-cost consumerism, and people-to-people engagement in the Indo-Pacific region. 

India's historical ties with Russia, its non-alliance membership, and its inability to prevent the expansion of BRICS have irked the US. In the last G20 summit, India's diplomatic maneuvering on the Russia-Ukraine conflict further strained its relations with Washington. Furthermore, internal issues within India, such as BJP's handling of human rights, and freedom of expression have dampened Washington's enthusiasm for partnership with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.  The unfolding events exposed India's vulnerability when sandwiched between the Chinese and Russian blocs from all sides.

Bangladesh, a South Asian nation sharing borders with India and Myanmar has long maintained a balanced foreign policy. So far, Bangladesh has also maintained balanced relations with India, China, and the USA. But,  over the past decade, substantial Chinese investments in multi-billion-dollar projects have converged with Prime  Minister Sheikh Hasina's development agendas.  It has raised the eyebrows of US  policymakers and they have found China's massive influence over Bangladesh. Moreover,  Sheikh Hasina's proposal to China for building a deep sea port in Sonadia made skeptical India, Japan, and the US. According to PM Hasina,  the US expressed the intention of establishing a naval base in the Bay of Bengal and this proposition met with rejection by her government caused discontent among the  Western powers. Hasina's government stance is also not aligned with the US's approach in Arakan of Myanmar. 

Washington has dissatisfied with the BJP's approach towards China. When Barack Obama questions India's territorial integrity that means Washington is taking an assertive posture toward South Asia.  The US-backed Canada's accusation of the BJP government for Hardeep Singh's murder has tarnished the diplomatic relations with the Western powers. Once India became preoccupied with domestic issues would create an opportunity for the West to destabilize  Bangladesh. The US seeks to establish an independent and puppet government in Arakan to contain China's ascent.

China is always one step ahead of the USA in Indo Indo-Pacific region. Sino-Myanmar bilateral relations are very warm, in terms of economic and military cooperation. China's influence in Myanmar is further evident by the Rohingya crisis. China considers Rohingya Muslims as its potential threat. The China-backed military junta in Myanmar is facing widespread civil protests, armed resistance from ethnic insurgent groups, and civil defense forces backed by the National United Government(NUG). NUG has acknowledged and accepted the arms struggle of the Arakan Rohingya  Salvation  Army (ARSA), which has a deep-rooted connection with the ISI( Pakistani espionage agency). Both NUG and ISI have strategic ties with the US. Hasina's government stance on ARSA may not align with US expectations.

The Western powers have a keen interest in the golden triangle of Bangladesh Hill track, Mizoram, and Arakan areas, which are very rich in mineral resources. So, Beijing has worked to destabilize this region with the support of the Myanmar military and the Kuki-Chin nationalist front, a banned ethno- nationalist and separatist political organization. The strategy yields geostrategic advantages for China over India and the US.

PM Sheikh Hasina has openly lambasted the intention of the USA which does not want the Bangladesh Awami League in power. That is why we can see proactive measures taken by Washington to oust the ruling government. The USA emphasizes human rights, freedom of expression, and fair electoral practice, then what about Saudi Arabia, Syria, Egypt, and Israel? Washington previously used a Visa restriction policy for fair elections in Nigeria and Uganda, after the election was held.  But, in Bangladesh, it was executed before the election. That means a fair election is not an issue for the Western powers. PM Hasina also refused to join the military alliance in QUAD. To contain China, Washington needs bold strategic maneuvers in the Bay of Bengal, necessitating reliable partners in India and Bangladesh. 

Bangladesh and other South Asian nations find themselves at the crossroads of superpower rivalry. A crucial time is ahead for these nations. To survive this crisis, national unity and political acumen are required to navigate this turbulent era. Last but not least, no Superpower will go against the local populace's support. History attests that without it, Superpowers cannot remain in foreign lands, despite the presence of the fifth columnist. This historical lesson is evident in Bangladesh's struggle for independence in 1971 and Afghanistan recently.  

M A Hossain is a political and defense analyst based in Bangladesh. Email: writetomahossain@gmail.com

This article  published at :

1. The Nation, Pakistan : 02 Oct 23

2. Modern Diplomacy, Europe :02Oct 23

3. The Asian Age, BD: 08 Oct 23

4. The Catch Line, Pakistan :04 Oct 23

The Significance of the Putin-Kim Summit.

M A Hossain, 

On September 13, North Korean leader Chairman Kim Jong-un embarked on his first foreign visit, following the global public health crisis. His arrival was marked by disembarkation from his bullet-proof train at the Vostochny Cosmodrome spaceport, located in the Amur Oblast in the Russian Far East. Kim met Russian leader Vladimir Putin at the launch vehicle assembly building and toured the spaceport facilities before engaging in an hours-long meeting in Kim’s Limousine, transported from Pyongyang. Mr. Putin spoke of the Soviet Union’s wartime support for North Korea and also covered economic cooperation, humanitarian concerns, and regional dynamics. Kim, reciprocally, pledged "full and unconditional support" for Moscow, making an apparent reference to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Kim's itinerary across Russia included visits to aviation factories in Komsomolsk-on-Amur, a marine biology laboratory in Vladivostok, and the Russian Pacific Fleet.  No doubt, the summit is seen as a sign of the "strategic importance" of bilateral relationships that have an anti-US, anti-Western alignment, thereby strengthening their alliances. 

The visit came at a time when the backdrop of a diplomatic standstill in North Korea's relations with the US and South Korea, followed an unsuccessful summit between Chairman Kim and President Donald Trump in Hanoi, Vietnam, in February 2019. Consequently, Kim's meeting with Putin was a strategic maneuver to reemerge North Korea on the world stage through successful diplomacy. Moscow and Pyongyang have historical relations, when Stalin supported Kim's grandfather at the start of the Korean War in 1950. North Korea was one of the five countries that opposed the UN resolution in early March 2022, condemning the Russian invasion, and was also one of the first three countries to recognize the independence of the two Russian-occupied states – Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People's Republic in Eastern Ukraine.  

North Korea possibly has tens of millions of artillery shells and rockets based on Soviet designs that could potentially give a considerable boost to the Russian army.  In exchange, Kim seeks badly needed energy, food, and advanced weapon technology, including those related to Intercontinental ballistic missiles, nuclear-capable ballistic missiles, and a military reconnaissance satellite.  This exchange can complicate President Biden's security consideration within the European and Asian theater.

During Kim's visit, he praised "comrade Putin" and depicted Russia's actions in Ukraine as a "sacred fight to protect its sovereignty and security". He also added that the two countries would always be together in the fight against imperialism.  The meeting at the Cosmodrome is symbolic, especially as Pyongyang failed twice recently in its bid to put a military spy satellite into orbit. The weaponry of Soviet vintage, akin to those used in the Ukraine conflict, emerged as the most salient items North Korea can provide to Moscow.  According to a senior research fellow from the Royal United Services Institute in Britain, Russia has exhausted up to 11 million shells in Ukraine last year and is set to fire 7 million more this year. Russia's defense industries have been ramping up shell production this year, but it has not been able to keep up with demand stemming from the war. North Korea is believed to possess a substantial reserve of Soviet-designed artillery shells and rockets, which are used against Ukraine. Kim was also accompanied by Jo Chun Ryong, a ruling party official overseeing munitions policies. 

The most appealing ammunition to Russia is the BM-21 Grad, a 122 mm multiple rocket launcher system that is similar to the ones it uses. Russia is also interested in the Soviet-made 152 mm M- 1955 (D-20) towed gun-howitzers and 122 mm (D-30) howitzers used by North Korea. North Korea is also one of the few countries with ample stocks of Soviet-era tanks similar to those deployed by Russia in Ukraine, such as the T-54 and T-62, and it could supply spare parts.  Former US National Security Advisor, John Bolton told CNN “From North Korea's point of view, this gets them back into really significant contact with Russia for the first time since the collapse of the Soviet Union”.

The economic relations between North Korea and Russia have soared to new heights. Pyongyang will consider a Russian proposal to build a gas pipeline and power line running from North Korea to South Korea. Russia has already started a pilot project using and North Korean cargo terminal to Ship Russian coal to South Korea. Moscow has an ambition to connect its Trans-Siberian railway to the Trans-Korean railway linking Russia and the Korean Peninsula. North Korea has also hinted at an interest in sending construction workers to assist in the reconstruction of Russian-occupied areas. Russia also has an economic interest in North Korea, especially in the fields of energy, transportation, and trade. Moscow hopes to expand its trade with North Korea, which has been severely restricted by the United Nations Security Council sanctions. 

The significance of Kim's visit to Russia lies in its symbolic and strategic value rather than its substantive results. The summit exemplified Kim's diplomatic prowess amidst international pressure and isolation. For Putin, it reinforces his role and influence in regional and global affairs, especially within the context of escalating tensions with the US and its allies over issues, such as Ukraine, Syria, Venezuela, and West Africa. China would be more cautious regarding the development of these alliances. Kim's visit offers China some respite to support Putin and diverts attention from the US's intensified focus on Taiwan.  The cooperation between these parties would complicate the threat assessments for Mr. Biden, spanning homeland, Europe, and Asia.

Kim Jong-un's visit to Russia was a significant event that reflected the intricate and dynamic landscape on the Korean Peninsula and beyond. The summit highlights the potential and limitations of bilateral relations between North Korea and Russia, as well as their implications for regional and global security. The visit conveys a clear message to NATO and the US as efforts to boost the visibility of his partnership with traditional allies by breaking out of isolation and part of a united front against Washington.

M A Hossain, a political and defense analyst based in Bangladesh. 

Email: writetomahossain@gmail.com

This article published at:

1. The Geopolitics :16 September 23

2. The Catch Line, Pakistan : 16Sept23

3. The Asian Age, BD: 19Sept23

4. The North Lines, India :21Sept23

জি ২০ সম্মেলন : ভারতের সম্ভাবনা ও চ্যালেঞ্জ

এম এ হোসাইন, 

আগামী ৯-১০ সেপ্টেম্বর, বিশ্বের সবচেয়ে প্রভাবশালী রাষ্ট্র প্রধানরা বার্ষিক জি২০ শীর্ষ সম্মেলন উপলক্ষে ভারতে একত্রিত হতে যাচ্ছেন। ভারত ১লা ডিসেম্বর ২০২২ এ এক  বছরের জন্য সভাপতি হিসেবে দায়িত্বভার গ্রহণ করে। ইন্দোনেশিয়ায় পূর্ববর্তী বার্ষিক সম্মেলনে, প্রধানমন্ত্রী নরেন্দ্র মোদি বিশ্ব নেতাদের কাছে প্রতিশ্রুতি  দিয়েছিলেন যে ভারত তার জি২০  সভাপতিত্বে সক্রিয়ভাবে অন্তর্ভুক্তিমূলক, উচ্চাভিলাষী  এবং কর্মমুখী নীতির অনুসরণ করবে। এরই প্রেক্ষিতে, ভারত তার প্রাচীন  সংস্কৃতি নীতিতে নিহিত "বসুধৈব কুটুম্বকম" অর্থাৎ " এক পৃথিবী, এক পরিবার, এক ভবিষ্যৎ"  থিমটি বেছে নিয়েছে। এই থিমটি সামগ্রিক বিকাশ প্রক্রিয়ায় সকল জীবের একাত্মতার এবং আমাদের পৃথিবীকে রক্ষা করার অপরিহার্যতার সাথে সামঞ্জস্য রেখে এর স্থায়িত্ব বৃদ্ধির উপর জোর দেয়। 

জনাব মোদী এই শীর্ষ সম্মেলনকে মহামারী পরবর্তী বিশ্বের জন্য "জনগণের জি২০"  হিসাবে ঘোষণা করেছেন এবং তিনি খাদ্য ও জ্বালানি সংকট, জলবায়ু পরিবর্তন, বহুপাক্ষিক উন্নয়ন ব্যাংক গুলো শক্তিশালী করন, অন্তর্ভুক্তি মূলক অর্থনীতি, ন্যায়সঙ্গত ও টেকসই প্রবৃদ্ধি,  ডিজিটাল পাবলিক অবকাঠামো এবং জলবায়ু অর্থায়নের উপর বিশেষ মনোযোগ দিয়ে অগ্রাধিকার দিয়েছেন।  বৈশ্বিক রাজনীতি এবং গতিশীল অর্থনীতির পরিমণ্ডলে এই শীর্ষ সম্মেলনটি ভারতের জন্য বিশ্বমঞ্চে তার অবস্থান পুনঃমূল্যায়ন করার একটি অনন্য সুযোগ প্রদান করেছে। যার মাধ্যমে ভারত তার প্রভাব, বৈশ্বিক সমস্যা মোকাবেলায় এবং  আন্তর্জাতিক সহযোগিতা বৃদ্ধির উপর মতামত প্রদর্শনের সুযোগ পাবে। যাই হোক, এই সম্মেলন ভারতের জন্য একটি বড় সুযোগ হওয়ার পাশাপাশি এটি অনেক কঠিন চ্যালেঞ্জও  ছোড়ে  দিয়েছে।

১৯৯৯ সালে যখন বিশ্ব অর্থনৈতিক মন্দার কবলে তখনই গঠিত হয়েছিল গ্রুপ অব টুয়েন্টি বা জি২০। প্রাথমিক পর্যায়ে এটি মূলত সদস্য রাষ্ট্রের অর্থমন্ত্রী এবং কেন্দ্রীয় ব্যাংকের গভর্নরদের একটি সভা ছিল। সবার লক্ষ্য ছিল বৈশ্বিক অর্থনীতি ও আর্থিক সংকট সমাধানের জন্য কার্যকরী নীতিমালা প্রণয়ন করা। বর্তমানে এই ফোরামের শীর্ষ সম্মেলনে প্রতিটি সদস্য দেশের রাষ্ট্রপ্রধান, অর্থমন্ত্রী, পররাষ্ট্রমন্ত্রী এবং অন্যান্য উচ্চ পদস্থ আমলারা অংশ নিয়ে থাকেন। মূলত বিশ্বব্যাপী অর্থনৈতিক সংকটের সমাধান খুঁজে পেতে জি-৭ দেশগুলোর অক্ষমতা নিয়ে আন্তর্জাতিক অসন্তোষ থেকে জি২০ গঠিত হয়েছে। জি২০ বিশ্বের প্রধান প্রধান উন্নত এবং উদীয়মান ১৯ টি দেশ ও ইউরোপিয়ান ইউনিয়ন নিয়ে গঠিত। এর পাশাপাশি, ৯ টি অতিথি দেশ এবং ১৪ টি বহুপাক্ষিক সংস্থা  অংশ গ্রহণ করে। এই শক্তিধর গোষ্ঠীটি বিশ্বের জনসংখ্যার ৬৫%, বিশ্ববাণিজ্যের ৭৯%এবং বিশ্ব অর্থনীতির প্রায় ৮৫% প্রতিনিধিত্ব করে।

নিরাপত্তা পরিষদে দুই বছরের মেয়াদ কাল, সাংহাই কো-অপারেশন অর্গানাইজেশনের সভাপতিত্ব, চলমান জি২০ এর সভাপতিত্ব, এমনকি একটি সফল চন্দ্র অবতরণের ফলে ভারতের কূটনীতি এবং ভাবমূর্তি এক নতুন উচ্চতায় পৌঁছেছে। এটা জোর দিয়ে বলা ন্যায় সঙ্গত হবে যে, ভারতের সভাপতিত্বে বছরব্যাপী জি২০ সম্মেলন যেভাবে আড়ম্বরপূর্ণ করে অনুষ্ঠিত হয়েছে তা অতীতে কখনো দেখা যায়নি। এরূপ দর্শনীয় কার্যক্রমের মাধ্যমে ভারত বিশ্বমঞ্চে একটি প্রভাবশালী জাতি ও "গণতন্ত্রের মাতা " উপাধি অর্জন করেছে।

ভারত এমন এক জটিল সন্ধিক্ষণে জি২০ এর সভাপতিত্ব গ্রহণ করেছে যখন বিশ্ব সম্মিলিতভাবে মহামারী বিপর্যয় এবং চলমান রাশিয়া-ইউক্রেন দ্বন্দ্ব থেকে পুনরুদ্ধার এর চেষ্টা করছে। দায়িত্ব গ্রহণের শুরু থেকেই মোদির  প্রতিশ্রুত 'জনগণের জি২০' এর অন্তর্ভুক্তিমূলক কার্যক্রম সুস্পষ্ট ছিল। ভারতের সভাপতিত্বে বছরব্যাপী ১১ টি এনগেজমেন্ট গ্রুপ, শেরপা ট্র্যাকের অধীনে ১২ টি ওয়ার্কিং গ্রুপ ও ৮ টি ফিনান্স গ্রুপের মাধ্যমে মন্ত্রী, আমলা, এবং সুশীল সমাজের সদস্যদের সাথে ২০০ টি বৈঠকের আয়োজন করেছে। পাশাপাশি, এই বৈঠকগুলো কেবল রাজধানীতে সীমাবদ্ধ না রেখে এটি দেশের ৫০ টি শহরে ও ৩২ টি বিভিন্ন কর্মধারার শিক্ষা প্রতিষ্ঠানের  তরুণদেরকেও যুক্ত করেছে। ভারত কৌশলগতভাবে যোগ, আয়ুর্বেদ, বলিউড এবং ক্রিকেট ব্যবহার করে তার ভাবমূর্তি উজ্জ্বল করেছে এবং জি২০ এর প্রতিনিধি ও অতিথিদের কে ভারতের সমৃদ্ধ সাংস্কৃতিক ঐতিহ্য,  বৈচিত্র্য, প্রাণবন্ততা এবং আতিথিয়তায়  মুগ্ধ করে নিজেকে বিশ্ব নেতা হিসাবে প্রতিষ্ঠিত করতে তার 'নরম শক্তি' ব্যবহার করছে।

বহুমুখী চ্যালেঞ্জ মোকাবেলায় ভারতের নেতৃত্ব কে অবশ্যই তার অভ্যন্তরীণ সমস্যার পাশাপাশি বৈশ্বিক চ্যালেঞ্জগুলোও সাবধানতার সাথে পুনঃ বিবেচনা করতে হবে। ভারতের অভ্যন্তরীণভাবে, মণিপুরে অশান্তি এবং হরিয়ানা রাজ্যের নূহ এবং গুরুগ্রাম জেলায় সাম্প্রদায়িক উত্তেজনা প্রশমনে কার্যকরী পদক্ষেপ ও সম্প্রীতি বৃদ্ধি করা অপরিহার্য হয়ে উঠেছে।  উপরন্ত, ভারত গুরুত্বপূর্ণ বিষয়ে অন্যান্য জি২০  সদস্য এবং অংশীদারের স্বার্থ ও দৃষ্টিভঙ্গির ভারসাম্য রক্ষার মতো জটিল কাজের মুখোমুখি।

জি২০ সদস্য রাষ্ট্রের ভিন্ন ভিন্ন উন্নয়নমূলক অবস্থা, শাসন ব্যবস্থা, অর্থনৈতিক ব্যবস্থা, এবং সাংস্কৃতিক মূল্যবোধ নিয়ে জলবায়ু পরিবর্তন, বাণিজ্য, কর ব্যবস্থা, ডিজিটাল অর্থনীতি, স্বাস্থ্য এবং উন্নয়নের মত সঞ্চালনশীল বিষয়গুলিতে ঐক্যমত হওয়া ভারতের সামনে বিশাল চ্যালেঞ্জ। রাশিয়া -ইউক্রেন সংঘাত  আঞ্চলিক ও বৈশ্বিক নিরাপত্তার পাশাপাশি বিশ্ব  অর্থনীতির জন্য মারাত্মক হুমকি হিসাবে  দেখা দিয়েছে। এর প্রেক্ষিতে, রাশিয়া সাথে ভারতের ঐতিহাসিক বন্ধুত্ব আবার মার্কিন যুক্তরাষ্ট্রের সাথে তার কৌশলগত অংশীদারিত্বের কারণে ভারতের অবস্থান বেশ জটিল করে তুলেছে। বিশ্ব নেতারা এই সকল গুরুত্বপূর্ণ বিষয়ে ভারতের দৃষ্টিভঙ্গি দেখার জন্য অধীর আগ্রহে অপেক্ষা করছে।

ভারত অর্থনৈতিক মন্দা, ক্রমবর্ধমান বৈশ্বিক দারিদ্র্য, এবং টেকসই উন্নয়ন লক্ষ্যমাত্রা অর্জনে পিছিয়ে পড়ার আসন্ন প্রতিক্রিয়া স্বীকার করে। খাদ্য, জ্বালানি ও সার সংকট, রাশিয়া-ইউক্রেন দ্বন্দ্ব এবং তদসংশ্লিষ্ট নিষেধাজ্ঞার মূল কারণ গুলিকে মোকাবেলা করে ভারতকে একটি ভারসাম্যপূর্ণ ঘোষণা তৈরি করতে হবে। বহুপাক্ষীক উন্নয়ন ব্যাংকগুলোর ঋণ প্রদান, বৈশ্বিক মূল্যস্ফিতি, জলবায়ু পরিবর্তনে ক্ষুদ্র অর্থনীতি এর নীতিমালা প্রণয়ন করা ভারতের সামনে একটি কঠিন চ্যালেঞ্জ হিসেবে দেখা দিয়েছে। এছাড়াও নয়া দিল্লির নীতিনির্ধারকগণ ভূ- রাজনৈতিক বিভিন্ন ইস্যুতে নিরপেক্ষতার মত কঠিন এবং জটিল পথ বেছে নিয়েছে যা এই দ্বিধাবিভক্ত বিশ্ব নেতাদের সামনে ভারতকে কঠিন চ্যালেঞ্জের মুখে ফেলবে।

ভারতের জি২০ সভাপতিত্ব তার বিশ্ব শক্তি মর্যাদা অর্জনের পথ প্রশস্ত করবে। ভারত জি২০ শীর্ষ সম্মেলনে নিজেদের পদচিহ্ন রেখে যাওয়ার জন্য কিছু ভিন্ন ধর্মী পরিকল্পনা চালু করেছে। যেমন- আসন্ন শীর্ষ সম্মেলনে আফ্রিকান ইউনিয়নের সদস্যপদ প্রাপ্তির জন্য প্রস্তাবনা করেছে।  ভারত তার সমৃদ্ধ প্রাচীন এবং টেকসই পরিবেশবান্ধব ঐতিহ্যগুলোকে বাজার ভিত্তিক প্রচারণার ফলে বিশেষ মর্যাদা লাভ করেছে। সবুজ প্রবৃদ্ধি প্রচারে উন্নয়নশীল দেশগুলোর জন্য জলবায়ু অর্থায়ন, প্রযুক্তি এবং ন্যায় সঙ্গত জ্বালানি সরবরাহ অন্তর্ভুক্ত হয়েছে।  ভারত এই সম্মেলনে গ্লোবাল সাউথের নেতৃত্ব অর্জনে এবং পক্ষে কথা বলার সুবর্ণ  সুযোগ পাবে। এই সমস্ত পদক্ষেপ গুলো ভারত কে একটি প্রভাবশালী জাতি হিসেবে বিশ্ব মঞ্চে  আবির্ভূত হওয়ার সুযোগ করে দিবে।

আন্তর্জাতিক সম্প্রদায় এই জি২০  সম্মেলনে ভারতের সকল পদক্ষেপ ঘনিষ্ঠ ভাবে পর্যবেক্ষণ করবে। এই সম্মেলন ভারতের জন্য  ক্রমবর্ধমান অর্থনৈতিক দেশ হিসাবে আন্তর্জাতিক ইস্যুতে নেতৃত্ব দেওয়ার অপার সম্ভাবনা রয়েছে। কিন্তু সেই সাথে ভারতের আঞ্চলিক বাধ্যবাধকতা অবহেলা করলে এর গ্রহণযোগ্যতা বিপন্ন হতে পারে। আসন্ন জি২০ সম্মেলন দ্রুত পরিবর্তনশীল আন্তর্জাতিক পরিমণ্ডলে ভারতের অবস্থানের জন্য একটি কঠিন পরীক্ষা সরূপ।  ভারতকে নিশ্চিত করতে হবে যে তার সভাপতিত্ব কেবল কার্যকরীই নয় আসন্ন চ্যালেঞ্জ ও সম্ভাবনাকে মোকাবেলা করে যুগান্তরকারীও বটে।

এম এ হোসাইন, রাজনৈতিক ও নিরাপত্তা বিশ্লেষক। 

এই আর্টিকেল টি প্রকাশিত হয়েছে :

১. দৈনিক বাংলা, ঢাকা :১১ সেপ্টেম্বর ২৩

২. বিডিরির্পোট২৪.কম,ঢাকা : ১০ সেপ্টেম্বর ২৩

India's G20 Presidency: Opportunities And Challenges.

M A Hossain, 

On September 9-10, the world's most influential heads of the state will meet in India for the annual G20 summit. India assumed the year-long presidency of G20 on 1st December 2022. During last meet in Bali, Prime Minister Narendra Modi pledged to world leaders that India would actively pursue inclusive, ambitious, and action-oriented policies throughout its G20 presidency. India has chosen the theme of "One Earth, One Family, One Future" enshrined in the ancient Sanskrit ethos of "Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam". This theme embodies a holistic approach to growth with sustainability in consideration of all life forms in the development process and aligning with the imperative of protecting our Planet. 

Mr. Modi has declared this summit as the 'People’s G20' for a post pandemic world and prioritized with a special focus on microeconomic implications of food and energy insecurity, climate change, strengthening Multilateral Development Banks(MDBs), financing inclusivity, equitable and sustainable growth, digital public infrastructure, and climate financing. In the dynamic realm of global politics and economics, this Summit offers a unique opportunity for India to redefine its position on the world stage exhibiting its potential, addressing pressing global issues, and foster International cooperation. However, despite being a big opportunity, it has also its formidable challenges.

The group of twenty (G20) was formed in 1999 during the global economic recession and was initially a meeting of the minister of finance and the governor of the central bank to discuss policies for resolving the global economic crises. Now, the summit includes the head of the state, finance minister, foreign minister, and top-level bureaucrats.  The G20 emerged from international discontent over the failure of the G7 countries to find solutions to the global economic crisis. The G20 comprises 19 countries and the EU, including major developed and emerging economics. Additionally, there are 9 guest countries and 14 multilateral organizations as participants of G20. This powerful group accounts for about 65% of the world's population, 79% of global trade and approximately 85% of the world economy.

India's diplomacy and image have soared to new heights with a two-year term on the Security Council, the presidency of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the ongoing G20 presidency and even a successful lunar landing. It is fair to assert that no previous G20 chair has yet presided over a spectacular chairmanship as India's year-long extravaganza, positioning India as a global player and even as "The Mother of Democracy". 

India's Presidency has come at a very crucial period when the world collectively is recovering from the atrocities of the pandemic and ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. The commitment of the 'People's G20' to inclusion is evident in how the G20 presidency is being executed in India. With eleven engagement groups, twelve working groups under the Sherpa track and eight under the finance track, the presidency is orchestrating 200 meetings of ministers, government officials and civil society members. It is also engaging young minds from various educational institutions across 32 different work streams in 50 cities of the country, instead of limiting all the events to the capital. India has strategically used yoga, Ayurveda, Bollywood, and cricket to promote is image and offered G20 delegates and guests a glimpse of India’s rich cultural heritage, its diversity, vibrancy, and hospitality, harnessing its 'soft power' for branding as a global leader.

India has assumed the presidency when the world is confronting with multifarious challenges. India's leadership has to reconsider its in boundary and trans boundary challenges. Its own internal turmoil, with Manipur burning and communal flare-up in Haryana's Nuh and Gurugram districts grabbing the headlines, require healing and harmony.  Furthermore, It is true that India faces the intricate task of balancing the interests and perspectives of diverse G20 members and partners on key issues. 

The G20 is a diverse and heterogeneous group of countries, with different levels of development, political systems, economic models, and cultural values. This makes it rendering consensus elusive on some contention issues such as climate change, trade, taxation, digital economy, health and development.  The Russia-Ukraine conflict looms as a serious threat to regional and global security, as well as to the global economy. But India has a historical friendship with Russia, as well as strategic partnership with the US and other countries, adds complexity.  The world leaders will be eager to know the India’s views on these pressing matters.

India acknowledged the impending consequences of economic decline, growing global poverty, and the delay in achieving Sustainable Development Goals. India must craft a balance declaration on addressing the root cause of the food, fuel and fertilizer crises, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and related sanctions. The trans boundary challenges of financing through MDBs, global inflation and macroeconomic implications of climate change constitute formidable hurdles in front of India's presidency. Policymakers in New Delhi have chosen to walk on a tightrope to be neutral on various geopolitical matters.

India's G20 presidency will pave the way for achieving its global power status. India has introduced specific schemes to leave its mark on the G20 Summit. It has also inserted the African Union(AU) membership proposal in upcoming summit. India is offering her rich ancient and sustainable traditions in favor of environment-friendly practices over market base consumerism embodied in the concept of LiFE ( Lifestyle for Environment). Promoting green growth entails climate finance, technology, and equitable energy transitions for developing countries. India’s G20 presidency will have a scope to rise the agenda as well as forerunner for the Global South onto the global stage. All these measures provide an opportunity to emerge India as an influential nation on global arena.

The international community will closely monitor India's actions during its G20 presidency. It has the potential to pave the way for rising economics to take the lead on international issues. But neglecting its regional obligations could jeopardize its credibility. The upcoming G20 summit will serve as a litmus test for India's position in a first-shifting International landscape. India needs to  make sure that its G20 presidency is not only effective but also revolutionary by navigating the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.

M A Hossain, political and defense analyst based in Bangladesh. 

Email : writetomahossain@gmail.com

This article published at:

1. The New Nation, BD: 08Sep23

2. The Asian Age,BD: 08Sep23

3. The Daily Excelsior, India :08Sep23

4. The North lines, India :08Sep23