Pakistan's Political Turmoil and Global Security Concern.

M A Hossain,

Pakistan is currently in a critical juncture of political turmoil which is posing a threat to its sovereignty as well as growing concerns about global security.  Not only that, if Pakistan fails to address the crisis, then definitely it will be the beginning of the extinction of democratic values regionally and globally. Pakistan has also been spiralling towards a severe economic catastrophe and struggling to meet the basic needs of its population. Now Pakistan is in a state of critical emergency after 1971, where the elite class should not repeat their apocalyptic mistake of ignoring the voices of the people. 

The power struggle of the current stalemate began when Imran Khan was ousted in April 2022 following a parliamentary vote of no-confidence.  However, this imbroglio is hardly a scenario that has arisen overnight. This is a result of bankrupt political regimes. Needless to say, Pakistan's ruling power has generally been characterized by its preference for one side of the Pakistan Army. Each of the five prime ministers has been indicted or imprisoned after leaving office. The military-dominated Pakistan has a long record of engineering the electoral playing field to achieve the Army's preferred result.

Corruption has long been a pressing issue in Pakistan's political landscape, with high-profile corruption cases involving influential politicians and bureaucrats. These scandals have eroded public trust in the government and raised concerns about the misuse of public funds. The economic condition in Pakistan was facing a severe crisis. Now the devastating flood of 2022, 50-years high inflation, food and energy shortage, collapsed investment, critically low exports, and foreign exchange reserve, mounting foreign debt, and the failure of international lenders have further exacerbated the situation.  Furthermore, Covid-19 and the invasion of Ukraine by Russia put tremendous pressure on world food and energy prices, which has had a negative impact on Pakistan's economy.

Pakistan is experiencing violent social unrest. Economic challenges, rising inflation, polarized politics, and unemployment have contributed to the frustration and discontent among the populace, especially the youth where over 60% of the population is under the age of 30.  A weaponized society with nothing to lose has grown a new ability to touch the untouchable elite Institutions.  Furthermore, ethnic and sectarian tensions, mass reform movements recently by religio- political parties, and engagement between Tehreek-e- Taliban Pakistan(TTP) and security forces clearly spelled out the public frustration with elite Institutions or ruling systems.

Pakistani, especially the young generation, are frustrated and possess discontent with the country's political discourse of weakening opponents and appeasing puppet masters.  Poor dynastic leadership has also paved the way for military intervention in state power. Imran Khan has taken advantage of the situation to make himself the savior of the nation. However, he is also seen as a trump card for Islamic jihadist organizations. His party’s strongholds, including Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, Lahore, and Punjab, are all strongly under the control of Islamic jihadist groups.  Imran Khan as a prime minister praised the mujahideen and hailed Osama bin Laden as Shahid (martyr) in the parliament. One more significant thing, the Pakistani Constitution has ensured the right to choose the Sharia rule provincially or in special administrative areas.

Now, in recent years, TTP or other similar religio- political fundamentalists have exhibited mass reform movements and continue armed struggle across the country. Their issue-based movement has become popular among the countrymen and their armed struggle has made the elite establishment bound to sit for a peace deal with TTP. We will be in a fool's paradise if we ignore the smartness and political acumen of present Islamic jihadist organizations. Now the situation in Pakistan is more favorable for TTP as well as International Islamic militant organizations. The Pakistani Judiciary, PTI, Islamic militant organizations, and military, Pakistan Democratic Movement(PDM) coalition are near to head-on collision. The worst possible fact is civil war, and the next phase will be the triumph of the Islamic jihadist movement.

The pressing question that demands attention from global leaders is why Pakistan should be a cause for concern. We must not forget that Pakistan is a nuclear-armed nation. Drawing upon my extensive two-decade study of Islamic militant organizations, it is evident that the Islamic jihadist movement will emerge at full throttle in Pakistan. In my opinion, Pakistan will be Afghanistan 2.0 today or tomorrow unless the crisis is not dealt with appropriately. This ideological warfare is just like cancer in the human body. If we fail to recognize it at an early stage, it would leave us no choice but to surrender.  Now, if we compare the situation of Pakistan with earlier Afghanistan, Iraq, Burkina Faso, and Mali, then it becomes evident that Pakistan is at the last stage of ideological cancer.  I assume that the next Islamic jihadist movement is likely to extend its reach to Kashmir and Yemen. If this movement gains traction in Pakistan, then it will be a matter of time to establish a strong jihadist bastion in South Asia and the Middle East.

The West, unfortunately, has deprioritized its engagement against Islamic militant organizations, which will compromise the value of democracy and bring a new dimension to democratic countries globally. To be sure, we will not be able to see democracy piping over the Great Wall in the East and the African-Russian imaginary barrier in the West. Meanwhile, Somalia and Yemen will serve as strategic game-changer, providing an economic lifeline for international Islamic jihadist organizations. 

So, where does the savior of democracy lie? Or, are democracy and human rights merely tools used to suppress third-world nations? These crucial questions demand answers. 

In conclusion, my perception will only begin to take shape once Islamabad falls. Pakistan must respond quickly because time is not on its side. Now the most straightforward way to restore peace in Pakistan would be through timely, free and fair elections, unfettered by the establishment's intervention. An elected government has the potential to restore confidence in Pakistan's Institutions, and that confidence is as desirable for Beijing and Riyadh as it is for Washington and New Delhi. Otherwise, the simplest explanation for other means may align with my perceptions(!), ultimately, becoming a stark reality.

M A Hossain, political and defense analyst based in Bangladesh. 

Email: writetomahossain@gmail.com

This article published at :

1. Modern Diplomacy, EU:20May23

2. The North Lines, India :21May23

3. IPA, India: 21May23

4. The New Nation, BD:22May23

5. The Daily Excelsior, India: 22May23

6. The Hitavada, Nagpur,India:21May23

7. The Arabian Post, UAE:22May23

8. The Hills Times, india: 24May23

9. The Asian Age, BD:30May23

The Pinyin And Future Asian Union.

M A Hossain,

The 19th century has been commonly referred to as the era of 'Pax Britannia' owing to the unparalleled dominance of the British Empire across the world. Subsequently, the 20th century was dubbed as the 'American Century' in recognition of the United States' meteoric rise as a superpower and its immense influence over global politics, economy, and culture. As we progress further into the 21st century, there is a growing consensus among analysts and experts that the century belongs to China, which has been hailed as the frontrunner of the 'Pinyin', or 'Chinese Century.

The polit bureau of the Chinese Communist Party (CPC) has amended the country's constitutional provision thus paving the way for President Xi Jinping to remain in the office until it is required both by China and the Asian nations. We have to, first of all, understand certain points. No one can undermine the magnanimous contributions of Comrade Mao Zedong, who actually is the founder of a politically and diplomatically strong China. Mr Xi Jinping actually is the real successor of Comrade Mao, and he is the founder of a new China, which not only is very strong both politically and diplomatically but also is the fastest-growing economy in the world.

While comrade Mao's dreams were fundamentally for the betterment of China- politically, diplomatically and economically; President Xi's visions are for China in particular and the rest of the Asian nations in general. The 'Made in China' vision has already been largely implemented. President Xi's brilliant idea of establishing connectivity amongst the Asian nations and Europe and beyond is ultimately going to bring fruits of prosperity in Asia. Possibly, One Belt One Road (OBOR) will place China into the lead role of promoting. 'Made in Asia' products to Europe, America, Australia and the African continent.

Implementation of OBOR means the creation of millions of new job opportunities in all the Asian nations. President Xi is dreaming of transforming Asia into an Economic superpower in this unipolar world. And once Asia reaches that status, global politics and diplomacy will ultimately come under the total control of us – the Asians.

As we know, Europe, Australia, and the United States of America had already reached the optimum level of progress. Still, there is a huge unemployment crisis. But, Asian nations by and large today are either underdeveloped or developing, the implementation of OBOR certainly would not have any unemployment problem for the residents of the continent. Instead, we are going to offer job opportunities to people from other continents as the next Asia is certainly going to become the hub of economic activities.  We have many advantages in comparison to our neighbours on other continents. Labour is cheaper here, people are hardworking, and we are blessed with natural and mineral resources worth trillions of dollars, ninety-five per cent of which are still unexplored.

In the future, under the leadership of President Xi Jinping would also have our common currency which easily can turn into the strongest currency in the world-much stronger than Euro, Pound or the US dollar.

Yes, I am talking about a future Asian Union, which will turn into a reality within the next two decades or even earlier, under the leadership of China. Just think about the military strength of the Asian Union! Military manpower size of a combined Chinese, Russian, Indian, North Korean, Pakistani, and the rest of the Asian nations would be unchallengeable. Similarly, the military technology and logistics of an Asian Union combining China, India, North Korea, Israel, and Pakistan would be gigantic in a real sense. None of the neighbours from the other continent would take the risk of indulging into military tussle with the Asian Union. Military supremacy will come to our grips.

The concept involves the creation of a political and economic union between all Asian nations. If this becomes a reality, then it would represent a significant shift in the global power dynamics. Asia has some of the world's largest and strongest economies, like China, Japan, India, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and South Korea. It would also create the largest single market of over 4 billion people, surpassing both the European Union and the United States. The creation of the Asian Union will eliminate the barriers, like a complex web of tariffs, regulations and cultural differences for businesses to operate across the region. This would become a key player in shaping the direction of the world economy.

In addition to its economic and military power, the Asian Union would also have a significant political influence on the world stage. The member nations would be able to speak with a single voice on key global and regional issues. The Asian Union would have the ability to balance the influence of the United States and the European Union for building a more multipolar world order.

However, there would also be challenges associated with the creation of the Asian Union. One of the key challenges would be navigating the complex geopolitical relationships in the region. Then strain relations with the neighbours including India, China, Korea, Israel, and Japan. The Asian Union would need to facilitate an equal voice in decision-making among the union. In my opinion, these challenges could be overcome through dialogue and positive gestures of powerful members like China, India, Israel, North Korea, Iran, and Saudi Arabia.

Some people are wrongly interpreting the constitutional amendment by the CPC as a move of turning Mr Xi as the President for life. Some others are even saying, almost all the powers are now been placed into the hands of the President and the ruling party has turned insignificant.

These assessments are grossly misleading and wrong. Power always remains with the ruling party-the CPC, and the polit bureau members only decided to let President Xi remain in office until it is required by China and Asia. In China, the ruling party always holds a key role. Ask anyone in the world, the name of the Chinese ruling party and the President. Everyone will give the correct answer. But if you ask, for example, the name of the Russian President and the ruling party, you'll get a half-answer. Most people have even never heard the name of the Russian ruling party.

In every country in the world, except China and North Korea, the ruling party actually gets eclipsed under the shadow of the head of the government. This makes China's political system more accountable and more pro-people. So, It's the time to unite all Asian nations under the leadership of pro-people rule.

M A Hossain, political and defence analyst based in Bangladesh.

Email: writetomahossain@gmail.com

This article published at :

1. Policy Watcher: 05May23

2. The Pakistan Daily : Pakistan :09May23