Has America retreated (!) or redeployed tactically in Afghanistan?

M A Hossain

World media is manifestly devastated having observed the US-created debacle in Afghanistan, and political pundits around the world are comprehendingly lamenting and venting out their concerns after the Taliban takeover. The US-allied forces have already completed evacuation by Aug 31, 2021; nonetheless, it is abundantly clear that the US has failed to achieve its mission in Afghanistan. Allegedly the withdrawal of military power from Afghanistan has ended the "War on Terror (WOT)", but no doubt, another new form of war has already been incited. In fact, nobody likes a defeat, let alone a Superpower. In my article, I will unfold the continuation of the new phase of the war by the West.

In retrospect, on September 20, 2001, the erstwhile US President George W Bush declared the WOT and divided the civilization by proclaiming, " every nation in every region now has a decision to make — either you are with us, or you are with the terrorists". A single affected country shaped the global game of geopolitics and geostrategic. Basically, the WOT exposed the crusade dictum with Islamophobia and xenophobia which was envisioned in Samuel P Huntington's book "Clash of Civilization and the Making of World Order". Huntington also anticipated and made a projection that by 2050, Muslims will be the major religious community in the world. In Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, the WOT was transformed from counterterrorism to counterinsurgency and subsequently to a purported nation-building mission. And President Joe Biden said, "the mission in Afghanistan was never supposed to be nation-building". So, it is undeniably safe to conclude that what the Western leaders said is not what they meant as a mission. In my opinion, there was a hidden agenda in Afghanistan.

In the Middle East (ME), the invasion of Iraq has profiteered the western oil companies and defense industries. And the ultimate goal of the Iraq war was to destabilize the Muslim region by creating a Frankenstein akin to the Islamic State(IS). So, the ME is divided into two confronting cultural ethnicities backed by Shia and Sunni Muslims. The Shia Iran becomes the biggest threat to Israel by forming an anti-Israel political system in the ME and to counter and fend off the mission of Shia militants, IS appeared in the war game. To ensure the smooth war game, the US has waned out its military support from Sunni Gulf allies (milking cows!). Now let's play the game on your own.

In Central Asia, Afghanistan is a vital strategic theatre from where two superpowers could be put under hawkish surveillance. In 1989, Soviet socialist forces were compelled to withdraw from Afghanistan. It is believed that the CIA had invested to strengthen the anti-Soviet forces (Mujahideen) through ISI (Pakistani espionage agency). Former President of Pakistan Mohammed Ziaul Haq strongly demanded that if any Western power wanted to support Mujahideen, it would only do so through Pakistan. The USA favored Sunni militants (Taliban) because they were fighting against anti-US allies having a sensitive stance towards Iran and Shia ethnicity. Now the billion-dollar question is, then why the western powers staged a 20-years-long war on the Taliban?

The answer may be two-fold. First, this WOT made the Taliban more strong, competent, and self-sufficient ideology bearer with a capability to expand its influence beyond its border. The fact was, after 10 years of WOT — the US-allied forces and its puppet government had control over only 29 districts out of 121 which means about 65% of the territory was under the control of the Taliban. Second, the US spent USD 2.26 trillion on its war in Afghanistan, while the US Presidents lied to the countrymen beguiling them as to how wonderfully and successfully the war in Afghanistan was proceeding. But the expenditure in Afghanistan aimed to wash money out of the tax bases of the Westerners through Afghanistan and refund into the hands of the warmonger defense contractors. The US President Dwight D Eisenhower famously quoted, "The United States runs by the whims of the military-industrial complex". Since President G W Bush launched the WOT in September 2001, the top five US defense industries — Boeing, Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and General Dynamics profiteered, having their share prices increased tenfold in 20 years. These weapon-producing corporations earned 2.2 trillion USD just from Afghanistan. 

According to a report released ahead of the 20th anniversary of 9/11, tech giants made billions through contracts with the US military and other government agencies during the so-called WOT. Undoubtedly, the world has sympathy for 9/11 and its victims; however, the modus operandi as to how the inner circle of the Bush administration used media to cash in on the fear-mongering and benefit from the war was rather candidly and unbridledly exposed in Michael Moore's documentary " Fahrenheit 9/11".

In Africa, the Islamic fundamentalists (both Al-Qaeda and IS) have fanned out in all directions. Some African countries are menacingly proximate to fall or surrender under Islamic emirate aspirant militants. The United States is not even faintly concerned about that. It can be seen that the US voice has always favored their geopolitical interest in the end.

The priorities of the USA have shifted from 'WOT' to 'Contain China'. China is investing USD 100 billion in Asia and Africa annually in power, road, bridge, and communication sectors. Under the framework of China's most ambitious Belt and Road Initiative project, it expands its influence from Africa to Asia Minor. Afghanistan would be the gateway for that project towards Asia Minor. The EU has started economic engagement with both Russia and China, which found disfavour to the US. Importantly, the Covid-19 pandemic is a vast new threat to usher in new economic challenges for that Pentagon's fear of terrorism has been eclipsed by concerns for great power competition against China and Russia. So, the policymakers of the US consider that only destabilizing Asia, Europe, and Africa by patronizing the hard-liners Islamic movement can challenge China's economic uprising.

Now if anyone around the world raises questions that which Superpower is very committed to the Muslim Rohingya issue? Which Superpower is only concerned about the Uyghor Muslims in China's Xinjiang province? Which Superpower has killed tens of thousands of Muslims in the ME?

I am sure my article has calibrated its focus with merely zero error to find out the hidden agenda of the West's tactical redeployment in Afghanistan. This is because the US sees the issue of Afghanistan as a quagmire where great powers have found themselves entrapped. Now if the US invests and demonstrates its interest to engage with the repressed Muslims in Asia, definitely that will pave the way to entrap China's growth in this quagmire. The scenario can be paraphrased as a situation where a tiger and the enemy are locked in a cage; whoever dies, surely the Western interests will be benefitted. The West knows the strength of Islam more than the Muslims of Asia.

M A Hossain, political and defense analyst, writes on diversified topics in Bangladeshi and foreign newspapers. His Twitter handle is: @writemah71

This article published at:

1. South Asia Journal, NJ, USA: 16 Oct 21

2. Modern Ghana, Ghana, 16 Oct 21

3. Review Nepal, Kathmandu, Nepal, 16 Oct 21

4. Kashmir Watch, EU.

Death row prisoners in Bangladesh

M A Hossain

The penal laws of Bangladesh have capital punishment for thirty-three offences. Once an accused is found guilty of those offences by the competent court, it can sentence him/her with a death penalty as the maximum punishment. In our judicial procedure, curiously there is no sentencing guidelines, and hence, the pronouncement of capital punishment is largely predicated on the individual philosophy and intuition of the judges. Nevertheless, the accused has to be incarcerated in a dungeon until he is discharged by a competent court or the punishment is carried out. In Bangladesh, the lower court's verdict of the death sentence marginalises an accused as death-row prisoners though this verdict is reviewed more than three times by the higher Courts in prolonged procedures. The death penalty may be commuted in any of the reviews, but the accused has to live as a death-row prisoner till the commutation. There is not much academic or public discussion about the living standards and the portfolio of death-row prisoners in Bangladesh.

In this article, my endeavour will comprise of unveiling an overall picture of the condition of death row prisoners in Bangladesh, which strongly demands a careful deliberation by the society as well as the concerned state apparatus. The sources of my information are from various reports of the dailies, individual experiences, and recently a study"Living under sentence of death" by the Department of Law, University of Dhaka.

British India and afterwards Bangladesh inherited the penal laws from the British colonisers. The death penalty used to be carried out in the brought daylight in front of mass people until it was banned by the British colonisers in the nineteenth century. The concept behind the jail system was introduced to subdue the natives by the intrusive occupational rulers. Unfortunately, thenceforth Bangladesh did not appear to have modernised the custodian system of the judiciary in comparison to the upgradation of the British system in order to keep abreast of the demands of the modern era. If we draw the analogy, it appears that our judicial process, particularly death reference, has not yet introduced any sentencing guidelines,  whereas England formed a sentencing council with the Sentencing Act, 2020, which is one of the many enactments formulated by the British Government appertaining to the modus operandi of sentencing the accused in criminal cases. 

In retrospect, Capital punishment was introduced to bring a deterrent effect on the potential violent offenders. But in the present context of Bangladesh, in reality, whether someone is facing the gallows has no or little impact on our ultra-moving society. Our incumbent Hon’ble Chief Justice Syed Mahmud Hossain has rightly pointed out, “the hanging(execution of the death sentence) alone can not protect the society." 

The injustice of the death penalty system and its lack of fairness are often emanated from the procedural unlawfulness in deriving confession of the accused under Section 164 of the Code of Criminal Procedure. The investigation department has, in recent years, demonstrated a deplorable disposition to wash their hands off a case by impelling an accused to make a confessional statement under Section 164 and more often than not, such coercive confession turns out to be adequate enough by the trial courts to impose capital punishment. The courts often refuse to traverse beyond the mode of obtaining such confession and unwittingly pronounces the verdict on the basis of such confession and thus, a confession, obtained by means of threat, intimidation, or coercion plays vital role in securing the end of one’s life. Therefore, in my considerate opinion, the abolition of section 164 is a requirement of time now. 

Once a person is sentences with capital punishment, he has to be locked in solitary confinement for years and even decades. This procrastination imposes double punishment on death-sentenced prisoners, which is neither mandated by the law nor in any way dictated by the judge. So, this illegal prolonged solitary confinement for pursuing their legal appeals makes sharp deterioration in the physical and mental status of the death-row prisoners. Enforced idleness causes a variety of negative physical and psychological reactions like hypersensitivity to extreme stimuli, perceptual disorders, increased anxiety and nervousness, fear of persecution, self-destruction, cardiac arrest, dizziness, lower level of brain function, suicide etc. The death-row prisoners are isolated in such a manner that constraints are imposed on visitation including the inability to ever touch friends or loved ones, even other prisoners inside the same jail. The condemned cells, where death-row prisoners are incarcerated,are designed to divest the accused from the sunshine, fresh air and socialisation with other prisoners.

According to reports of"living under sentence of death" - almost three-fourth quarters of the death-sentenced prisoners were below 30 years. A quarter was the sole earner for their families. As a result, the convict's family becomes predisposed to austerity and privation. The families also become subjected to social harassment by the populace around. Remarkably, the study reveals that most of the death-sentenced prisoners are from a very low educational background. There is also a popular belief that the death sentence is imposed only upon the poorest and powerless people.

A death-row prisoner is faced with innumerable daunting challenges. First, in a legal battle, it is almost impossible to conduct the case in person. Others have to represent the accused in legal management. Here, influence works as a magic bone to thwart the bail application of the accused. This is utterly preposterous! It is the failure of the state and the judiciary, not the accused person. Second, repression by the corruption-plagued jail officials adds further insult on the already inflicted injury of the accused. From the reports of dailies it evince that the inmates are tortured, discriminated, humiliated, deprived of human rights inside jails in the most brutal form. Third, it is very shocking and pathetic that almost all the death-row prisoners get abandoned by their families. Perhaps due to the socioeconomic conditions, the family members have no remaining alternative other than to jettison their loved ones. Fourth, after conviction, prisoners sometimes fail to manage a representative for the legal move. And it is also observed that senior criminal lawyers are seldom inclined to represent the poor convict. Even here, the economic condition of the convict plays a vital role on the rate of his case being successfully conducted. 

Confessional, heat of the monumental, accidental and above all previous criminal records must be taken into consideration while delivering the death penalty. For the seek of deterrence and individual/general perception must be avoided in death reference. Bail should be the very first-hand step taken by the judicial process unless the same is injurious to public life. Ancient laws must be upgraded with the requirement of time. 

Numerous International Human Rights treaties explicitly prohibit the government from subjecting any death row prisoner to cruel, inhumane, degrading treatment or punishment. Though the present government has increased infrastructure development in the jail, the reforms of jail operating procedures in tandem is unfailingly necessary. We must not restrict our focus on the crime which leads to a death sentence rather we must scrutinise on the involvement of the state and the society's responsibility and consider the prior criminal or delinquent records to deliver the verdict. According to the study report, almost all death row prisoners are first time trialled without having any prior criminal records, and it is thus illogical to deliver a capital punishment to a first-hand accused, specially since where we are not exactly living in a utopia.

With the span of time, our World is gradually moving towards a ‘no death penalty’ era. There is no dearth of countries, which have lately abolished the capital punishment. Death, the finality of it, requires fastidious care and attentive examination on evidence associated with the offence. In a country, where the method of accumulating evidence is not always unassailable, it seems imprudent and injudicious to confirm the death of a person, especially when he is restricted from extending his full-fledged support to the litigators. We must bear in mind the Blackstone’s ratio, “It is better that ten guilty persons escape than that one innocent suffer.”

This article published at:

1. The Independent, Bangladesh: 30 Sep 21

My name is Khan, and I am not a terrorist.

M A Hossain

In 2010, the multi-award-winning Bollywood movie" My name is Khan" where Shahrukh Khan(Rizwan Khan) portrayed the character of a Muslim righteous man with Asperger's syndrome. This movie scintillatingly showcased a message to the society that terrorism should not be generalised with the Muslim names only. In that movie, the protagonist conveyed a message to the most powerful president, "My name is Khan, and I am not a terrorist" who went through racial discrimination and suffered religious bigotry due to his Muslim heritage.

During the last couple of years, while flipping through the Daily Newspapers, I, quite frequently came by a few names, Pehlu Khan(April'17), Akbar Khan(July'18), Faisal Usman Khan (January'19), Junayed Khan(Haryana, 2020), Mudassir Khan(2020), Asif Khan(2021); only to find that these men were lynched by mob in different places just for the sake of their Muslims names; although they were not found to have been imputed with any crime from any corner. These scoops reminded me of the iconic dialogue of Shahrukh Khan in the above-mentioned movie. Unfortunately, the number of people being enlisted in such an ill-fated procession of death, with the name of Khan, is increasing day by day in India.

In my article, I will try to demonstrate how the history of demagoguery of the politicians is repeating to grab power under the facade of religious frenzy in our subcontinent and as to how the Indian religious minority faced systematic discrimination and repression by the right-wing Hindu extremists.

During the British colonial era, being imbued by the 'Divide and Rule' policy, East India Company continued subjugating the people of this Subcontinent predicating on the religious and socio-religious difference. The company's unprecedented success in this regard was largely ascribed to its expertise in pitting Hindus against Muslims. With the advent of 'Hindu Nationalism' by Bal Gangadhar Tilak in 1896, the Hindus of the subcontinent began to be inspired by the religious identity. He organised the ' Cow Vigilance Committee' all over British India and emerged with his ideology with the tales of Shibaji who fought gallantly against the Muslim rulers, especially the Mughal. Swami Shraddanand organised a movement named "Shuddi ovijan (reconversion to Hinduism)" to convert Muslims into Hindu forcibly. This movement was arguably the conspiracy of the East India Company and may have been galvanised by the company in order to thwart the increasing amity between the people of different religions. In 1920, the politician cum author V. D. Savarkar first articulated Hindu nationalism in his book"Hindutva: Who is a Hindu". In 1925, Hindu nationalist leaders Satya Dev and Lala Har Dayal led the movement  'Sangathan Andolon' (organisation movement) and openly declared to convert the Muslims into Hindus lest they would be expelled from the soil of India. A Hindu nationalist paramilitary volunteers group, Rashtriya Swayamasevak Sangh (RSS) was founded in 1925. In 1947, the cataclysmic partition of British India took place on the basis of religion which is undeniably the 'farce of the century'. The two main political leaders, Nehru and Jinnah were behind this partition, and they were never practitioners of their religion. This division was permitted as a collateral of the avarice of power. Even the father of the Indian nation, secular great leader Mahatma Gandhi, was assassinated by an RSS member when Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel was the Home Minister. RSS claimed that Gandhi was biased towards Muslims and in 2019, Mr Modi and Bharatiya Janata Party(BJP) recognised and honoured Sardar Patel by erecting the world's tallest statue of him. The British departed but their seed of anti-Muslim hatred was grown up to a banyan tree as BJP. 

India is diversified with religion, ethnicity and linguistic communities. Though India has a secular Constitution but could not protect the 200 million Muslims from systematic discrimination, prejudice and violence. Even secular Congress leader Indira Gandhi exploited religious division to bring Congress to power in 1980. Her son Rajiv Gandhi further favoured Hindu to stay in power. In 1990, BJP, the political wing of RSS emerged through a series of nationwide "Rath yatras(chariot procession)" as a show-down of Hindu nationalist power. BJP's Hindu nationalist agenda first surfaced with the destruction of Babri Masjid in 1992. Then their anti-Muslims shows further appalled us in Gujarat riots(2002), Muzaffarnagar riots(2013), Delhi riots(2020). 

Mr Narendra Modi brought BJP to power in 2014 only with an anti-Muslim rhetoric. Modi's BJP made widespread immunity for mob violence targeting Muslims. The atrocities are getting different dimensions in different names like"Love jihad", "Cow vigilante group", " Ghar wapas". The government has taken a step to stem Muslims access to a political and economic power with the name of Citizens Amendment Act(CAA), and National Register of Citizens(NRC). It is believed that after NRC, Muslims will lose their voting rights and become stateless across the country. Muslim dominated Jammu and Kashmir was brought under the Central Government repealing Article 370 of autonomous rule. The UN Human Rights Commission termed all Modi's activities as "fundamental discriminatory". 

BJP government galvanised its administration and judiciary being tilted against Muslim. Law enforcement agencies were seen as reluctant against perpetrators targeting Muslims. The court overturned convictions or quashed the cases of Muslim repression. The BJP leaders, convicted for destroying Babri Masjid, were acquitted. No criminal was convicted or brought under Justice for murdering Muslims in the form of mob lynching. The Hindu -Muslim riot in Delhi '2020 caused 60 Muslim death and made 5000 Muslims homeless. Muslim houses, businesses, shops were burnt but interestingly, the administrative fact-finding committee did not find any involvement of Hindu leaders where the whole world could watch the hate and instigated speeches by BJP's firebrand leaders on YouTube and the Internet.

So, the Indian nationalist chauvinism always starts with the cow vigilante program. Even after 75 years of Independence, the virulent tactics of ethnic cleansing have not changed. Once the secular state of 1.3 billion used to take pride as "Indian". No caste, ethnicity, linguistic difference tilted its 'All Indian' ideology. But today, in the 21st century, a vested Hindu extremist quarter is trying to resurrect virulent bigotry amongst the Indian. If secularism or religious rights are at stake in India, the largest democracy, then it will definitely destabilise regional harmony in South Asia.

This article published at:

1. South Asia Journal, USA,10July 21

Social degradation will put our development in a fiasco.

M A Hossain

The economic growth of Bangladesh has made the global leaders frown. What Bangladesh has achieved today within 50 years of its birth is the mission impossible task for many nations, especially in our region. But our social and moral fabric has not upgraded with the development and economic growth. Needless to say, a nation's development sustainability index solely depends on its moral and institutional values. So, whatever development we do today, that will be turned into Frankenstein tomorrow unless we prepare the competent next generation.

In my article, I will ponder upon that how our moral and institutional degradation is going to eat up our all achievements.

In everyday newspapers, it becomes a routine scoop that parents-children, husband-wife are killing each other for petty interest and moral turpitude. Our stars'(social and filmy) exhibit disgusting misbehaviour which is totally unacceptable in a healthy society. Top corrupts are going scot-free. Independent and self-ruled institutions are contesting on sycophancy for power groups. In parliament, there is a mock opposition party. The lord chief justice accused of moral turpitude. The administration tries to be authoritarian over the republic. The public servants(from the driver/peon to members of Parliament) are accused of moral degradation. These alls are not sporadic incident but to understand the fathom of our moral and social erosion. In my opinion, as a nation, we are careless about these erosions rather we want to take pride in our developments. At times, we forget that these developments will no longer sustainable unless we create a competent generation and society.

Bangladesh, as a state, was never stable institutionally. We fought and paid heavy blood for our independence on four fundamental principles. Within 4 years of our independence, it changed one principle(democracy) of the spirit of our liberation war. Military ruler President Zia another two principles(secularism and socialism in economy) and President Earshad substantiated Islam as a state religion, which starkly opposed the spirit of liberation. Then comes democracy interval with pseudo-military rule and now a voter less democracy. After 50 years of Independence, we still need to shout for freedom of expression, and rule of law. At this stage, we can not show disrespect and disgrace to the liberation of war as well as martyrs. These frequent deviations from the spirit of liberation make the social and political institutions fragile. That's why we are lacking ideal Democratic political parties. In absence of this political institution, there creates opportunists and oligarchy in the society. Such a pseudo-democracy only can widen the substantial income inequality in the country. 

Bangladesh has tremendous achievements in per capita income, average lifetime, producing rice and fish, sanitation, child mortality, maternal health, etc. At the same time, it also observes that all the political parties are a bit reluctant on narrowing socioeconomic gaps. The World Bank reports said, our 35% of wealth are in the hands of 10% rich and fortunate people. The cause behind the birth of Bangladesh was also emancipating from unequal distribution and discrimination of the country's wealth. If our policymakers don't wake up now, then our social structure will be crashed in the near future. This socioeconomic imbalance paves the way for making easy money for the opportunists. There comes corruption, rogue and unnatural attitudes in society. If we don't develop our moral values with the continuation of economic development then it creates problems in our psychology, relation, tolerance, means to achieve and overall social structures. Gang culture, elitism, moral turpitude, a poor state in rule of law, freedom of expression, governance and family bondage are the outcome of socioeconomic inequality. 

All wakes of protectors have turned into predators in our society by involving themselves in the nexus of political and social corruption. For example, the spread of drugs in every level of society keep us awaiting our apocalyptic destruction ahead. It's alarming that after gun downing hundreds of drug dealers brings no change in society. Still, our society is no longer sensitive to the issue of violence, elitism, injustice and discrimination. Another example, I know uniformed personnel, who involved in a sensitive murder case for professional reason in Bangladesh. After the incarceration of that person, his whole family was put on media trial and this society has compelled his wife to divorce her husband to be freed herself from social atrocities. Malpractice of our society dragged the innocent family members into an ordeal.

Our economic growth mainly depends on agriculture and ready-made garments. Our peasants do not form any syndicate to manipulate the market, or garments workers do not launder billions of dollars from our country. In the end, all these corrupt echelons are from ruling elite groups.

I am optimistic, our ruling party led the nation to become independent in 1971. So, before it is too late, our government has to take a concerted effort to recover the moral and institutional values. Moral education, volunteer activities, charity, social awareness must be inculcated at the primary to tertiary level to strengthen the social and moral values. The present generation should be brought up with patriotic and sensitive to immoral mindset. Again, present executive echelons should be put on the hawkish eye by ensuring good governance and rule of law. Thereby, we as a nation could minimise the cost of generational transition. Only this bipartisan strong and motivated political agenda can save our future.  

This article published at:

1. South Asia Journal, USA, 09July 21

 

Iran: Reshaping the regional politics in the Middle East.

M A Hossain

Iranian President-Elect Ebrahim Raisi is the only President who was under sanction before the election by the US. He has got 48.8% vote of ever lowest turnout in presidential poll'21 since 1979 Islamic Revolution Movement and become the 8th president of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Mr Raisi is considered to be an ultraconservative Shia ideologist and a staunch acolyte of the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The victory of Raisi will have a significant impact on reshaping regional politics in the Middle East(ME) and also the only option left to survive the clerical representative system of rule in Iran.

The tenacity of Iran's proxy war in the ME has made its rivals uncomfortable,, especially arch-foe Jewish Israel. Iran-backed militias — Hamas, Huti, Hezbollah have gained considerable dominance over political and tactical grounds from the regional perspective. Israel and its henchmen the U.S. have launched an all-out war to curtail the influence and destabilised the institutional strength of Iran. In this context, the president poll'21 had gargantuan importance that how the Islamic Republic will negotiate the upcoming challenges.

Iranian President holds the second in ranking in the country's political system, but it is the Supreme Leader who is the only decisive instrumentality of state matters. The presidency does control domestic matters like law and order, economy and state schemes. Mr Raisi will take over the office in early August 21. It is Mr Raisi who is the protégé of ultra-conservative Khamenei and trusted crony to the conservative establishment, including its security and intelligence agencies. The regime will pave the way for controlling and influencing social activities, freedom of women, social media and the press. At present, Khamenei is 80, and if any health issue arises then Raisi would be the perfect successor.

Iran is in a critical juncture of political crisis. The general living standard has declined due to the deep economic crisis. The US sanctions and mismanagement of the government have crippled the economy of Iran. Domestic unrest and dissent are broiling political stability. Foreign actors are deeply engaged to destabilise the present system in Iran. To eliminate any internal or external challenge at a critical moment, the gerrymandered allocation of Guardian Council members was staged to bring a hardliner like Mr Raisi. Now, the regime will have absolute control over all the centres of power. 

Mr Raisi's first press briefing made a weathercock of Iran's foreign policy. This regime will focus on confidence-building with its neighbours and increase Islamic Revolutionary Guard Crops's (IRGC) influence over the region. The IRGC has tremendous influences in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and Palestinian. The relationship with Iran with the US and EU is going to be strained. Israel already has expressed her deep concern with the victory of Raisi. Another regional rival, Saudi Arabia, has intended its ice-breaking gesture after a secret ministerial-level meeting in Baghdad with Iran. Saudi Arabia has understood the strategy of the USA. The petrodollar is the only interesting matter to the US and the recent withdrawal of the missile system from Saudi puts this gulf state in reality. More so, the Biden administration is a bit uncomfortable with Saudi Arabia for issues of Khashoggi murder, human rights violations and the Yemen war. Mr Raisi has praised the Lebanese militia group Hezbollah and criticised normalisation efforts between Israel and Arab Nations, arbitrated by Saudi Arabia.

Russia and China have congratulated Mr Raisi and assured to support the economy out of the deep crisis. Turkey has intended to raise the Tehran — Ankara relations to a new height. Qatar has ensured the economic vibes for Iran. Syria and Iraq have further expressed their solidarity and connectivity with Iran as rock still. Kuwait, UAE, India and Pakistan showed a keen interest in strategic partnership with this Persian Gulf. 

Oil-rich Iran is also blessed with a long and extensive history of culture and strong traditional values. It has a severe influence over the regional context. The major religion in the ME has reshaped after got in touch with Persian traditions. Persian Shiite ideology is one of the major offshoots of Islam around the world. Historically, Iran has a strong conservative society. IRGC has achieved great success to fight against Islamic State(IS) militia in the ME and saved the Iranian society to indulge in IS wave. Again, we also find Iranian strong cultural heritage becomes the saviour for the society during various crisis moments - the nationalisation of Anglo-Iranian oil company during the British era, Wahhabism, Arab Spring, the latest IS wave. In the past, Iran starkly rejected the intention of progressive and open society by the Pahlavi monarchy and constituted the Islamic Republic by an Islamic Revolutionary movement in 1979. 

Nevertheless, the present global political scenario has made an imbroglio in the ME. A stark critic of the West, Mr Raisi's bent on the enrichment of nuclear power made a more complex political game in this theatre. It's too early to comment on such a mercurial quickie. It is the time that will dictate the very speculative narratives on the ME.

M A Hossain, a political and defence analyst writes on diversified topics in Bangladeshi and foreign newspapers.

His Twitter handle is: @writemah71

This article published at:

1. The Independent, Bangladesh : 01 July 21

2. The Seoul Times, South Korea: 01 july21

3. Review Nepal, Kathmandu, 01 July 21

4. The Jakarta Post, Indonesia, 03 July 21

5. The Star, Malaysia,08 Aug21

Bangladesh: Hefazat-e-Islam and militancy

M A Hossain

Hefazat-e-Islam(HI) in Bangladesh was established in 2010 as a countermeasure to thwart the enactment of the Women's Development Policy Bill that proposed equal inheritance rights to women. Hefazat-e-Islam, which means"protector of Islam" claims itself to be an apolitical organisation predicating on the hypothesis that they do not take part in the national electoral politics; however, quite the contrary, it has emerged as an important Dramatis Personae in Bangladeshi politics because of the present political context. This organisation is based on nationwide Qawmi Madrasas which is teaching and preaching Orthodox Islam. It has become the centre of attention of major political parties to materialise their interests from its heyday at Shapla Chattar in 2013. Due to my professional reason, I was well aware of this platform and I will dissect its reasons to crash in 2021.

First of all, the question may arise as to why this self-proclaimed non-political Islamist organisation has become so important an actor in the political arena. There may be many minds. But in my opinion, history and present geopolitical trends are some of the key factors to appease this Islamist organisation by major political parties. Historically, Qawmi based organisations were here from the British era. Every time they formed a platform on a particular issue, their stand somehow was at odds with the Islamic culture. We have seen Ulemas influencing the Bangalees to travel to fight against the British in favour of the Ottoman Empire which is known as"Khelafat Andolon". In 1920, there was a movement named "Hizrat Andolon" in favour of the Afghanistan emirate. In the post-independence era in Bangladesh, we have seen protests against Dawd Haider(1974), Taslima Nasrin(1994), Khatme Nabuwat Andolon(2003) and the emergence of HI with 13 point demands at the latest in 2013. In retrospect, we see that every movement of the Islamist party in the past was mostly successful which makes them stronger and competent. And consequently, with their apparent success and increasing popularity to the mass people, they continued to assume a non-political and issue-based character in favour of Islamic interest.

Bangladesh is a Muslim majority country(90%) where religion is a very influential factor in any national consensus. More so, at present, we can see the rise of right-wing populism, ultra-nationalist, radical parties around the world. Our neighbour's "Hindutva" paved the way for rising Islamist organisations vibrantly in Bangladesh. The secular Bangladesh Awami League(AL) government has to compromise their ideology to safeguard its political survival. Before the AL- HI pact, the main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party(BNP)- Allied always labelled itself as a pro-Islamic party and secular AL as an anti-Islamic party. But, after the 2008 election, the ruling party created a highly uneven playing field in politics, which shows extreme intolerance to the opposition's political activities and the extensive onslaughts on Democratic institutions. Not only AL tried to weaken their Islamist contenders by co-opting rival Islamic actors but also maligned their political opponents and aligned Islamist parties as promoting the "wrong" or "extremist" version of Islam. In such a political context, the ruling party tricked to save the vote banks against the anti-Islamic brand. They strengthened relations ostensibly with HI to appear as a pro-Islamic party. There may be another reason, either political failure of oppositions (BNP-Allied) or (Semi)-authoritarian rule causes a vacuum in the political field in Bangladesh. That is why the ruling party needs to accommodate an influential population on their side to deny political space to the BNP- Allied oppositions.

Nevertheless, AL, in the last decade, did it successfully with its political acumen. Burning examples are, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, was awarded 'Qawmi mother', the government asked bloggers to refrain from criticising Islam, madrasa certificates were upgraded with regular education, removal of atheist poems from the textbooks etc. To appease the Islamist organisations for political survival is a common phenomenon in the history of Bangladesh and this sub-continent. The attempt to use Islamisation as an authoritarian legislation strategy was followed by President Ziaul Haq, General Zia, General Ershad. During the Democratic regime, Begum Khaleda Zia relied on Jamat-e- Islam(JeI) in 2001-2008 and AL also followed in 1996 (movement for establishing caretaker government) and in 2019, with HI in the condition not to pass any anti-Islamic law.

HI has a strong and dedicated mass gathering capacity which makes it a gambit of street power politics. The death of HI supremo Ahmed Shafi has brought the power tussle for succession between Anas Madani and Junayed Babunagari in 2020. This power crisis paved the way to get the opportunity for the inclusion of militant outfits at the executive level. In my observation, Jamatul Mujahideen Bangladesh(JMB) and Neo-JMB(Followers of IS ideology) do not have any affiliation with HI. HI is a strict follower of 'Hanafi Majhab' where Neo-JMB and JMB follow 'Salafi Ideology' and 'Ahle Hadith' respectively. These trios have a stark uncompromising attitude and acceptance towards each other because of their different types of methodical ideologies(manhaj). On the other hand, Harkat-ul-Jihad-ul-Islami(HUJI), Ansar Al Islam and JeI all have infiltrated in HI. Among these trios, HUJI could able to manage some top posts in HI from where they influenced the decision-making process. Some HI scholars and preachers have ties with Ansar Al Islam which follow the ideology of Al-Qaeda(AQ). But from the very beginning, Ansar Al Islam was confused about the Aqida(mandatory rites) of HI which is related to Al-Wala-Al- Bara(love and hate only for the sake of Allah) and has not clarified by HI. More so, Ansar Al Islam was embarrassed by the activities of HI like appeasing government, crass political willingness, mayhem on 26-28 March 2021 which it considers an un-Islamic and strict violation of Islamic law. Hence, they started distancing with HI.

Now, HUJI has been gradually embarking on as the decision-making authority in HI. We need to remember that both HUJI and HI are solely based on Qawmi madrasas. In madrasas' education system, followers (students) are unreasonably and blindly attached to their 'Ostad' (teachers). So, madrasas' teachers are the backbone of HUJI and HI who trapped Babunagari. Some HI leaders have linkage with JeI. All the militant groups have different types of methods(manhaj) to establish Islam. At present, HUJI, HI and JeI have the similar methodical approach towards the Democratic system, but all other militant groups completely reject it and consider the present Democratic system as the deviation of Sharia(Islamic) rule.

Now both HUJI and Jel have a serious lack of political shrewdness and maturity to take on an organisation as resourceful and efficient in political manoeuvring. HUJI has some Afghan(returnees) fighters who might have linkage with the Taliban. With the success of the Taliban in Afghanistan, HUJI gets a boast and considers them as the only successor to lead the Islamist party or movement in Bangladesh.  But they are in fool's Paradise, Bangladesh is not Afghanistan or Pakistan. Taliban is not the global organisation where AQ is the main driving force behind it. So, after establishing the Islamic Emirates in Afghanistan, due to UN mandate, a state can not sponsor any subversive activities against any nation. So, AQ can only have the scope to support any augmentation to establish an Islamic emirate in any country in the world.  JeI had the only motive to create anarchy in the country and put the government under pressure so that government takes the hard line which would pave the way to get the opportunity to do politics and gain political space. So, their immature attempt to get the state power under the facade of Islamic flavour crashed in a deep hole.

AL as the ruling party exhibited its political acumen to handle this HI issue. Bangladesh's espionage agencies and law enforcement agencies have timely taken the appropriate actions against HI. The government now will follow the 'carrot and stick' policy and will bag HI on their side, keeping Babunagari at the forefront of non-political Hefazat-e-Islam in Bangladesh.

This article published at:

1. The Seoul Times, S Korea,12May21

2. Kashmir Watch, EU,10May21

3. Review Nepal, Kathmandu, 12May21

Turkey's emergence as the global power.

M A Hossain

The changing dynamics of globalisation, post-Cold War era, has brought forth systemic changes shifting the centres of power. In the 21st century, the Western world is gradually losing its appeal, which is arguably being replaced by the new international system for the erosion of the principles of sovereignty, territorial, non-intervention, the increasing importance of human rights and democracy. Amid this chaotic transformation, Turkey has gradually emerged as one of the leading global powers, when it unfailingly exposed the hawkish policy on the Middle East(ME), the Caucasus, the Balkans even in Sub Sahara and Latin America. Turkish role as a regional power has been increased undeniably in many folds, since the Justice and Development Party(AKP) came to power. AKP's stern and occasionally aggressive leadership did not only aspire Turkey to be exalted as one of the dramatis personae in the race of not only in the regional power but also globally. 

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan does not miss out on the chance to either proclaim his nation as a Muslim religious soft power. He also has, in recent years, brazenly assumed the role of 'Big Brother' of the Sunni Muslims all over the World. Turkey, under the auspices of its multidimensional foreign policies, has been making a significant contribution to global peace and security as well as to its regional stability with the concept of 'regional responsibility'. 

The core strength behind Turkey's rise is active engagement in foreign policy and her strong economy. Her ambitious strategic foreign policy is centred on three pivots. These are the transformation towards blue water force, the army's expeditionary warfare concept of growing tendencies of creating proxy war agents in various battlegrounds from North Africa to the Levant, expanding forward military bases in its area of influence globally. Turkey has been enjoying a considerable degree of soft power in its region comprising the Balkan, Central Asia, Caucasus and ME.

Mr. Erdogan has adapted the 'zero problems' policy to his neighbours and conducively, the European Union(EU) has no other option but to stand in harmony with the new reality of the present scenario, which is drastically different from the condition prevalent two decades ago. At present, Turkey has the 2nd largest army in NATO and the 8th largest army in the world power. By 2023, Turkey's economy will be within the top 10 as per the prediction of the International Monetary Fund(IMF) and their armed forces rely on its stronger defence industry. The Balkan region is propped up by Turkey for the maintenance of regional peace and stability via trilateral consultation mechanisms including Turkey — Bosnia and Herzegovina — Serbia and Turkey — Bosnia — Croatia. Turkey is interlocked by the EU and Asia. It is neither a member of the EU nor a part of Asia. But both the continents have deep-rooted relations with Turkey and hence, there is no denying that Turkey, as a country, is bridging the EU and Asia.

In Central Asia, the common ethnic, cultural, historical, linguistic ties are shared by Turkish people. The latest geopolitical triumph with Azerbaijan's Turkish backed victory in Nagorno-Karabakh is already producing tangible results. Azerbaijan agreed with Turkmenistan and Afghanistan to develop the 'Lapis Lazuli' transport corridor that would link the war-ravaged country to Turkey and also facilitate the transit hub of the Caucasian nations. Turkey has deep-rooted historical and cultural ties with the Caucasus. It has been investing in its geopolitical and geo-cultural position by taking a leading role in the establishment of regional organisations — opening dozens of new embassies and consulates particularly in Africa and the Middle East. As a democratic and secular State, Turkey has justifiably become the role model for the Muslim world, especially the ME. Mr. Erdogan is trying to establish Turkey as a "Protector" for Sunni Muslims all over the World. Turkey is repeatedly reiterating its support for Pakistan in the Kashmir dispute where Saudi dominated Organisation of Islamic Cooperation(OIC) failed to raise the issue towards the International arena. The First Lady of Turkey was the first in time among any foreign high profile figure to visit Bangladesh to show her solidarity for the Rohingya crisis. Saudi Arabia has been enjoying by default soft power over the Sunni Muslim's world just because the two holiest places are situated there. But the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the kingdom's consulate in Istanbul could pave the way for restructuring the soft power order favouring Turkey. Turkish drones loitering in Syrian airspace, operation "Olive Branch" in Syria against Kurdish militia, navy frigates along with the Libyan coast, the presence of Turkish military advisors in Tripoli and Qatar as well as Turkish Mountain commandos expedition in Northern Iraq are signalling the hard power doctrine policy.

Turkey has strong strategic cooperative relations with China. Ankara has initiated a nuclear program with the help of Beijing and launched her first military satellite from the Gobi Desert in China. Turkey — China both ways trade valued $24.1 billion. Ankara is very much cautious and made a balanced policy against Uighur's issue. Japan and Korea have strong economic relations with Turkey. According to the Turkish Ministry of economy in 2013, a total of 166 Japanese companies have stupendous investments in Turkey.

Pakistan enjoys the Turkish defence cooperation for India-Greece strong diplomatic relations. The dispute between Turkey and Greece over oil and gas exploration in the East Mediterranean region and the India-Pakistan conflict over the Kashmir dispute have paved the way for cooperation between the two Sunni Muslim states. Defying Western red-eye, Ankara has increased her strong trade and defence cooperation with Russia. Ignoring the US sanctions, Ankara is purchasing the S-400 Air-Defence system from Russia.

Day by day, Turkey is increasing its influences over sub-Saharan and Latin America. Ankara is assisting Sunni extremists in Somalia and has significantly increased her relations with the countries of the Horn of Africa through economic and trade agreements and emergency aid.

Ankara rightfully takes pride in its policies that prioritise humanitarian concerns. In recent years, Turkey has become a leading actor in the field of humanitarian diplomacy ranking as the 2nd largest donor country after the US. During the tsunami disaster(2004), the AKP government first responded with humanitarian aid to the affected nations. At present, Turkey is the top nation to provide shelter for refugees from neighbours.

Turkey's ambitions to increase its global influence in the post-Cold War era and willingness to play a greater role in regional and global governance have attracted considerable academic attention. Mr Erdogan clearly and concisely expressed his neo-Ottoman and pan Islamist visions to renew the ascension of the old Turkish empire and to rejuvenate Turkey to its former glory.

This article published at:

1. The Independent, Bangladesh :21Mar,21

2. Review Nepal, Nepal :20Mar21

3. The Seoul Times,S.Korea:22Mar21