Ideological Warfare: concepts, misperceptions, and blunders.

M A Hossain, 

Of all the burning issues this world is embroiled into, terrorism(Jihadism) is arguably the most important issue at present. In the post-9/11 epoch, the global arena is ensnared in the issue of terrorism under a new dimension, which rapidly was disseminated into all the countries in the world and the Muslim countries were not an exception. At present, 30–40 Countries, with a Muslim majority, are directly or indirectly engaged in the "War on Terror" spearheaded by the US and its allies. Even after two decades of the War on terror, this jihadism is not at all extinct, it rather challenges the status-quo in the Global system. However, owing to the lack of adequate comprehension of the ideology, aim, and procedure of jihadism, the west has failed to perceive this ideological warfare accurately and thus, paved the way for overturning present global systems through the jihadist movement.

There are two Islamic radical forces globally running with unconventional fighters- Al-Qaeda(AQ) and Islamic State. Among them, AQ is emerging as a game changer in the social fabric, political structure, and geo-strategy globally. I will dwell upon AQ only today because day by day, this extremist organisation is getting stronger.

AQ leaders' statements since the mid-90s predominantly allude to three core principles, which are in sharp contrast to secular, democratic, and religious reform ideologies. First, 'The Quran-based authority to govern'-AQ is fighting to create a Sharia-based Islamic Emirates and strongly reprehends the secular, man-made other systems of rule which are deemed contrary to the Islamic faith. Second, 'the Liberation of the Homeland'- they are struggling to oust every aggressor from the Muslim countries. Third, 'the liberation of the human being'- the vision of a contractual-social relationship between Muslims and their rulers that would permit the subjects to choose and be scathing to their leaders, and to raise resistance and overthrow, if need be, should there be an aberration from Islamic laws and principles.

In my opinion, AQ's objective is to demonstrate and characterise its activities as defensive and religiously permitted will garner support from the masses for its broader ideological program. The identification of Limited political objectives and the exposition that they are aiming at resolving broader grievances may generate broader appeal. Overall, AQ's immediate aim is to establish itself as the vanguard of an international Islamic movement, primarily committed to end the propensity of the US's 'intrusiveness' in the affairs of Muslim countries and the ultimate aim is to proselytise Islamic societies with Islamic laws.

For a better exemplification of this ideological warfare, let me compare it with a football match, where the West and Islamic Fundamentalists are two opponents. On one side, the West relies on the Economy, the Rule of Law, and the Judiciary in the defence position; Popular support and Education as two wingers; Secularism, Administration, and others in the midfield, and Democracy as the striker. The West keeps Authoritarianism, Dictatorship, Monarchy, Radical extremism, and Moderate Islam on the side bench. On the other side, in contrast, Islamic Fundamentalists designate 11 players with only one ideology, and that is Islam. Their substitute players are also with Islamic ideology. So, they counter every position of their opponent to instil Islamic ideology. 

In this ideological warfare game, both teams have committed rough charges, which gives the advantage to the opponent. The West played fouls in Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia, Syria, and Mali. They have also tackled Muslim scholars abrasively in Guantánamo, and the seizure of Lal Masjid(Pakistan).

The West also adopted cheap machinations of substituting democracy with authoritarianism, dictatorship, monarchy, secularism with moderate Islam, and radical extremism. Examples are Bangladesh, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and India. So, the West is rather bafflingly unstable in its ideological position and is predisposed to recant its ideology quite readily. On the other hand, the Islamic Fundamentalist team charged its opponent illegally in the Peshawar School attack (Pakistan), suicide attack in common places (Middle East, Africa) attack on Eidgha, Marketplaces (Bangladesh, Iraq), etc.

In my opinion, AQ has targeted four opposition players to make the west exhausted and abruptly exposed its weakness. Those four players are education, popular support, economy, and democracy. From the last two decades, If we analyse AQ's statements, we find that they have been continuously criticising the Western education system, dollar-based economy, and democracy which failed to exhibit palatable governance. They also expose the bitter truth that Western democracy is not suitable for Muslim countries because if any Islamic party wins the election then obviously Islamic party will not compromise with the West.

According to the International IDEA report 2022, half of the world's democracies are declining, where India and the US are among 7 countries listed as "backsliding"  and 27 countries are seen moving towards authoritarianism. This capitalist democracy has completely failed in the Middle East, and Africa and put South Asia at stake.

AQ is also exploiting the Education system in Muslim countries. There are three systems in every Muslim country, a secular Western-backed general education system, a state-backed moderate Islamic education system (Alia Madrasas), and an orthodox Islamic education system (Deobond). In reality, orthodox Islamic students face tremendous discrimination in every walk of opportunity. And Islamic Fundamentalists are targeting these groups by gravitating them into adopting the ideologies of these Fundamentalists.

From the beginning, AQ was more critical of the monopoly of dollar-based economic systems globally. They termed it as 'Bogus' and urged all Muslim leaders to walk out from such a blunderous Fiat money standard. The Washington-Beijing trade war has exposed the monopoly of the dollar system, and world leaders have been searching for an alternative monetary system. Again, the Russia-Ukraine war has explicitly exposed the necessity of an alternative to the dollar system. Now Economists are forecasting that the West is putting other countries in a debt trap and giving emphasis on lessons learned from the ancient Roman money supply conundrum.

The USA and its allies seem to be stuck in the quicksand of their so-called "War on terror". It was the plan of Bin Laden to bring the USA into a ghost war globally and achieve the asymmetric attrition of war. AQ has tried to convince the Muslims in the Middle East, Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan about the "War on terror" as nothing but a conflict between Islam and the West, and it has worked. This organisation takes this war on terror as a golden opportunity not only to garner proponents and popular support, but also to recruit Muslim youths.

In this context, the West is left with only two options. First, to continue this ghost war on terror, and second, to abandon their Muslim allies. In my opinion, the West has chosen option 2 because we saw the result in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Somalia. So, the withdrawal of the USA and its allies is considered a failure of ideology, not power or wealth. I cannot overemphasise the fact that these wars were not evenly matched since those were between the most sophisticated, advanced weaponised military, strongest economy-backed superpower, and with ordinary, unconventional thousands of militants from the poorest, malnutrition-torn nations.

Ideological conflicts have always been at the root of the transition of civilisations in history.  Every nation has its own ideology, traditions, and culture. Whenever one nation engaged in a struggle for superiority over another nation, the nation with the strongest ideology survived, which was conducive to the defeat of the Mongols, Hitler, or Soviet socialism. The bitter reality in the present context is that the governments of Muslim countries have to fight this war alone.  Therefore, the government of a Muslim country should not give the fundamentalists an edge by rough tackling in the game of ideological war, without fully comprehending the ideology, purpose, and procedure of this terrorism.

This article published at :

1. The Asian Age, BD: 15 Jan 23

2. Modern Ghana, Ghana :16Jan23

3. Seoul Times, S.Korea :16Jan23

4. Review Nepal, Kathmandu :15Jan23

5. Pakistan Observer, Pakistan :17Jan23

6. South Asia Journal, NJ,USA: 16Jan23

7. The Jakarta Post, Indonesia :24Jan23

How far is Pakistan to Afghanistan?

M A Hossain, 

Pakistan has been suffering from terrorism for the last three decades. Due to its strategic position, Pakistan became a centre stage of terrorist activities. The menace of terrorism has adversely affected the social fabric, political structures, Institutions and economic growth of Pakistan. Following the Taliban takeover in neighbouring Afghanistan, this incipient Terrorism has destabilized domestic politics and predisposed Pakistan to an imminent Civil War.

Pakistan was created on the basis of the precepts of the Islamic religion in 1947. Oddly enough, Pakistan was eventually not ruled by the fundamental causes of its formation, rather the political power was transgressed into the grip of a bureaucratic class and inevitably, the people became frustrated and changed their territory, shape, and strength in 1971.  During the 1980s, President Zia Ul Haq tried to implement the Rule of Islam and many religious Institutions developed in the society. While this stride of President Haq was unfailingly a people-pleaser, it helped the various extremist groups like the Taliban or Al-Qaeda(AQ) to perpetuate their roots in Pakistan. 

In the era of the Cold War, the Soviet Union intervened in Afghanistan in 1979 predominantly to disseminate communist ideology. The US and her Western allies utilized Pakistan as the supreme logistic channel for the Taliban resistance to counter the ideological conflict. The military aid from Pakistan, the US, and financial backing from Arab countries enabled Afghans to drive the USSR out of Afghanistan in 1989.  AQ and Taliban possess the same ideology.

After the 9/11 attack, the US accosted AQ of this heinous act of aggression, and in retaliation attacked Afghanistan in 2001.  Taliban are 46% Pashtun of the Afghan 35 million whereas the same tribes are 15% of Pakistani 215 million and formed its offshoot Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan(TTP) in Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA) in Pakistan. Some of those TTP leaders had previously fought against the USSR in Afghanistan and took control of most of the FATA. TTP wanted to fight against the US in Afghanistan and also asked the Pakistan government to discontinue her support to the US. In response, the Pakistani government allied with the US on the "War on Terror" campaign.

The landscape of terrorism in Pakistan might have been changed after the Siege of Lal Masjid in July 2007.  A total of 154 died, mostly women and children. Immediately, AQ declared war against the Pakistani Government and its security agencies. Before the Lal Masjid incident, AQ and TTP considered Pakistan as a buffer state in this region.

To overcome the threat of terrorism, the Government of Pakistan launched a military operation "Operation Rah-e-Haq" against TTP in the Swat district in 2007. This operation continued in phase -2 and phase 3 consecutively in 2008 and 2009.  Another military operation "Zarb-e-Azb" was launched in its territory near the Pakistan-Afghanistan border in June 2014.

Pakistan got itself intertwined in the war in Afghanistan. Besides involvement in this war, Pakistan was also plagued by ethnic and sectarian conflicts among different factions and separatist nationalistic movements as another source of terrorism.

Pakistani newspaper "Dawn News" reported that the Pakistan economy suffered a total loss of USD 126.79 billion since 2001 due to the war on terror. According to the report by Brown University's Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs, 23,372 Pakistani civilians and 8,832 Pakistani security personnel were killed, directly or indirectly, in the war on terror. Ex-Premier Imran Khan lambasted the "War on Terror" as America's war, where Pakistan was dragged into it and paid a high price of losing over 80,000 soldiers and civilians as well as billions of dollars in infrastructural damage. Approximately 150 thousand security personnel are deployed in Swat, Malakand, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa regions for counter-terrorism operations, but it costs billions of dollars from Pakistan's exchequer.

The "War on Terror" has exasperated the different militant and extremist groups in Pakistan. It created difficulties for the Pakistan army and police to manage the law and order situation. Pakistan does not have the luxury of requiring resources available to guard the Pak-Afghan border, which offers a very difficult terrain to control. The unmanned army drone strikes killed and maimed thousands of innocent civilians. Military operations in the name of the "War on Terror" against their own people have infuriated people. Besides this, corruption, injustice, and intervention of the military establishment in politics irk the society in score to go for alternatives.  TTP offered prompt justice and better governance, which gained popularity among the tribal people. Moreover, military operations made approximately 4 million Internally Displaced Persons (IDP).

Terrorism, conflict, and violence are destroying both the physical and human capital of Pakistan. It often resulted in the collapse of health and educational infrastructure. Terrorism and political turmoil affected the inflows of FDI, economic growth, domestic investment, and tourism and increase the unemployment crisis.

The Pakistani rupee is one of the weakest trade currencies in the world. Present rising utility costs, food prices and potential hikes in interest rates have brought an imbroglio in politics.

Moreover, the volatile geopolitical situations and growing convergence between China and Pakistan cast a shadow over Washington's approach towards Islamabad. Now, its somersault policy with superpowers has caused severe detriment to common people that have diverted their support from the government to the Islamic fundamentalist.

Pakistan is already submerged in the quicksand of TTP/AQ the way the USA rolled back from Afghanistan. Survival from the assassination attempt of Imran Khan has saved Pakistan and delayed the civil war. In my opinion, militant groups do not trust the Pakistani government and people do not agree to carry the burden of unsustainable military expenditure in the name of security. The prediction of civil war in Pakistan seems more imminent, and the takeover of Pakistan (or partial territory) by Islamic fundamentalists would be the xerox scenario of Afghanistan 2.0.

This article published at :

1. Daily Asian Age, BD:22Nov22.

2. South Asia Journal, NJ,USA:23Nov22

3. Modern Ghana, Ghana :23Nov22

4. Review Nepal, Kathmandu :23Nov22

5. Daily Observer, BD :26Nov22

Al-Qaeda, Global terrorism and threat to democracy

M A Hossain, 

Long ago, on one fine autumn afternoon, my friends and I were discussing which one of our friends who had escaped the get-together in that café to penalize. An army general sitting next to us was intrigued by our excitement and dragged his chair closer to us, bringing his vaporized coffee mug.

With very friendly interaction he advised us his theory “channelize, canalize and penalize” as a solution. Two decades of my hawkish eye on the Islamic extremist movement, I find the general’s theory appropriate here.

After World War II, the dollar became the strongest and only international trade currency. In the early 1990s, the world started a reorientation that strengthened the dominance of the Western capitalist economic system, supplanted the primacy of the nation-state with transnational corporations and organizations and eroded local cultures and traditions through Western culture.

The Western nations have enjoyed supremacy in the military and economy and they have been ferrying their capitalistic and democratic ideologies around the world, which are consumerist and materialistic in nature.

Now, Western nations have reached the peak of their vertex in terms of lifestyle, consumerism and prosperity. This creates an ideological vacuum and people have become frustrated. We have found widespread cases of suicide and mass shootings in Western societies, which are flagrant examples of this claim. An Islamic ideology is starting to fill the void.

I will dwell upon one jihadist organization, al-Qaeda (AQ) which has spectacularly gained its capabilities in acting as a transnational militant organization. During my research, I find, interestingly, it is the AQ that lays down the gauntlet for the United States on the battlefield.

 AQ founder Abdullah Azzam first accentuated global jihad among all militant organizations. Before that, various Islamic extremist organizations fought for sharia (Islamic rule) sporadically and locally. AQ members around the world gathered in Afghanistan to fight against Soviet occupiers.

In 1989, after the death of Azzam, Osama bin Laden took the helm of AQ. He envisioned his global jihad as “striking the head of the snake” in which the head was America. He wanted to bring the US into a death trap and by compelling US troops to be deployed globally.

AQ carried out a number of attacks on US targets around the world to allure America into war. Laden struck the center of gravity in America on the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks, which changed the landscape of global terrorism. After the attack on the Twin Towers, Laden expected US troops in Afghanistan, Somalia, Syria and Libya to achieve an asymmetric war of attrition.

Even the Bush and Obama administrations were unaware that the war on terror was nothing but a booby trap. America lost the war in Somalia, Libya, Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan. That is how the theory “channelize, canalize and penalize” works.

American political scientist Samuel Huntington asserted in his book The Clash of Civilizations that the future holds a series of clashes between “the West and the rest” and envisioned religion as “perhaps the central force that motivates and mobilizes people.”

AQ wanted the US military to use unilateral military action against Muslim countries, which paved the way for recruiting Muslim youths against US atrocities. Successful examples are the invasion of Iraq, Afghanistan and Somalia.

Globally, democracy is declining. The war on terror, patronized by the US, gave opportunities to authoritarian rulers in several democratic countries. Nations in South Asia, the Middle East and Africa have experienced terrorism as a tool of suppression and intimidation against opposition. Terrorism is solely responsible for the world refugee crisis, which has affected the European Union and Western nations the most.

Even US citizens have experienced draconian anti-terrorist laws embodied in the so-called “USA Patriot Act” that have immeasurably increased government power of surveillance, arrest and detention. The construction of military prison camps for suspected terrorists, the abrogation of basic civil liberties and the call for military trials have undermined decades of progress in developing democratic policies.

Islamic extremist movements linked to AQ have achieved their goals in Afghanistan, Somalia, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger and are strongly emerging in Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Pakistan, Nigeria and the Caucasus region. AQ in the Indian subcontinent (AQIS) has started a hidden and secretive network in India, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Kashmir. AQ in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) is going to capture the important port cities and very soon will take control of the Gulf of Aden.

In my opinion, within the next five years several African countries will announce Islamic rule within their country. AQ in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) has strong bastions in Algeria and the Sahel.

Ideological conflict must be countered by ideology. If this simple equation is miscalculated, then there will be a catastrophic debacle. Some democratic rulers are trying to politicize terrorism and for God’s sake, they are digging the grave for democracy with their own hands.

During my research, I found that AQ started its preparation on global savagery in 2002. AQ, from the beginning, targeted the dollar system as the enemy’s center of gravity. Just think, if America was not involved in the war in Afghanistan, Iraq and Africa, where would they be now? The war on terror was nothing but a waste of money and lives.

The world is shaping into a multipolar world in 2022. America has used and abused the dollar system as a punitive tool and democratic frontliners have failed to exhibit a stable, executive, beatified ideology in the 21st century. We have seen the eccentric Trump in the US, Hindu extremist Modi in India and a pillow passing show in the United Kingdom.

The world is now considering an alternative trade currency system instead of the US dollar. But it is extremely important to be critical of state terrorism when one discusses this complex and sensitive topic. For decades, the US and Israel have been accused of state terrorism.

It is, therefore, neither the time for terrorism nor reckless unilateral military intervention, but for an ideological campaign against ideological conflict. This campaign should not accept militarism, violation of human rights, the establishment of a police or military state nor the undermining of democracy in the name of fighting terrorism.

No doubt, democracy is in the ICU and misjudgment of this ideological conflict will put the last nail in the coffin of democracy.

This article published at :

1. The Jakarta Post, Indonesia :04Nov22

2. The New Nation, BD: 04Nov22

3. South Asia Journal, NJ,USA;04Nov22

4. Review Nepal, Kathmandu :06Nov22

5. The Seoul Times, S, Korea :07Nov22

6. Modern Ghana, Ghana :07Nov22

Reincarnation of Bengali showbiz industry.

M A Hossain & Nirupom Azad,

Celluloid film/drama and culture are closely entwined to each other. Culture may be defined as the way people live in this materialistic world. And when we watch cinema/drama, we see the visual representation of culture through celluloid screens.

The Cinema industry emerged roughly 113 years ago. To be exact, (on December 28, 1895), two brothers named Auguste Lumiere (1862-1954) and Louis Lumiere (1864-1948) showcased their first film at the Hotel de Café in Paris. Thenceforth, the Cinema has gradually been becoming a popular medium of Culture from west to east as well as our Indian subcontinent.

This subcontinent had its first glimpse of Cinema, even antecedent to the Independence, somewhere between 1913 and 1914, which was shown by the name of bioscope in Armanitola. The first completed Celluloid film was Mukh-o-Mukhos directed by Abdul Zabbar.  Thereafter, a myriad of films were produced, which enlivened us for years. During this watershed period, we have been blessed with a number of prolific dramatists such as Nurul Momin, Munir Chowdhury, Sayed Waliullah, etc. Ascribing to the efforts of these dramatists, our first complete drama was released in 1952, which was directed by Taracharan Shiqdar and was named "Vhadrajun".

Post-independence, this incipient nation witnessed the formation of thousands of enterprises. A lot of digital media enterprises were introduced here thanks to the other nations, most notably by our neighbouring country. The most popular one of them was the DISH cable channels. These channels had a corollary effect of integrating foreign culture within us. There is hardly a family, where at least one of the members is not engrossed with these programs. And owing to this, the choices of interest of people were largely influenced and had a negative impact on our family culture.

The Digital content that is showcased through these channels is market-oriented. Market-oriented products are being made based on the desires of people. Therefore, rather subtly, our preferences of Culture has largely been maneuvered by these contents. One thing is patently obvious, that most of the market-oriented contents do not represent the culture of our region. As such, the national identity of ours were tainted. The national identity is important because people, who belong to a particular locality, represent a specific way of living predicating on their beliefs, rituals, and customs. And so, these activities are based on the natural surrounding which includes, soil, air, and weather.

Subsequently, these contents have inculcated poison into our core belief, values, and ideas and galvanised us into a nation, which often are not cognisant of their own identity.  However, the dichotomy might be observed in the writings of some prolific writers, such as Humayun Ahmed, who wrote some of the most beautiful dramas and novels.  Samsul Haq, Humayun Azad, Akhtaruzzaman Elias, Munir Chowdhury, and Selim Al Deen were blazing the trail for epitomising our culture with their writings. We were blessed with some notable film directors like Mita, Khan Ata, Momtazur Rahman, Subhash Dutta, Matin, Ehtesham, Kazi Hayaat in post-independence era.

Humayun Ahmed put emphasis on making drama, films. The dramas such as "Aaj Robibar", "Ure Jay Bokpokkhi", "Nokkhotrer Rath", etc are the all-time favourites. He paved the way for making glorious and eminent films like" Aguner Porosmoni", ‘Noi Number Bipod Shanked", "Daruchini Deep". In addition, Writers Munir Chowdhury came up with Drama "Ektola- dotala". So, since then, we were finding our own identity. 

Some genius actors in film industry like Razzak, Shabana, Kobori, Bobita, Suchanda, Golam Mostafa, Faruq and in drama Humayun Foridi, Afzal Hossain, Ferdousi Majumdar, Shuborna Mustafa, Raisul Islam Asad, and Shawmi Kaiser did their Job very clinically.  They had entertained us for years, and some of them are still entertaining. 

But after 2000, the tremendous growth of the world cinema industry, and the availability of these foreign content put adverse pressure on our industry. Writers were not paid properly and the freedoms of the writers were stifled.  The directors were impelled to produce content which had not even the remotest nexus with our Culture.

In the recent past, our showbiz industry has been rejuvenating. A number of the present promising actors like Arfan Nisho, Apurba, superstar Mosharraf Karim, Chanchal Chowdhury are keeping the momentum in right direction. Needless to say, actress like Tasnia Farin whose presentation and style of acting have changed the dynamics of our showbiz psyche, be it in "Nisswash", "Karaghar" or "ladies and Gentlemen ". Even before these, our Golden Era hesitated to bet on actress oriented project. Beside her, Joya Ahsan, Badhon, Mehazabien Chowdhury, Sabila Nur, Tanjin Tisha are doing very well on our TV screens. Young directors like Aryan, Mostafa Farooki, Rafi, Shawki are transcending our industry beyond our border.

The incorporation of larger media giants like Hoichoi, Chorki, Zee5, and Bioscope are investing their money to revive the showbiz industry from this soil and will make prolific digital media content as well. " Devi", "Rehana Maryam Noor", "Television" have exhibited the prowess of our directors to the international platform and made the nation proud.  So, we need a concerted effort to keep the momentum brighter.

This article published at :

1. The New Nation, BD:16 Oct 22

2. Review Nepal, Kathmandu :16Oct22

3. South Asia Journal, NJ,USA: 21Oct22

What Zawahiri's death signifies for the US and its CT mission.

M A Hossain, 

Ayman al-Zawahiri, the Egyptian physician who ensconced himself at the helm of al-Qaeda (AQ) after Osama bin Laden's death in 2011, was killed by the US drone strike in Afghanistan on the 31st July, 22. Biden's administration is hailing Al-Zawahiri's death as a ‘hugely significant blow’ to AQ, especially considering the manner of orchestrating the killing after the elimination of High-Value Targets (HVT) like Osama bin Laden, Abu Baker Al Baghdadi or Qasem Soleimani. In the past, these types of targeted killings used to have a daunting impact on jihadist organizations, but not a decisive effect. It also could not help to eliminate terrorist attacks and affected neither the rate of terrorist attacks nor the likelihood of organizational collapse. Probably, neutralizing these types of HVT could achieve an immediate vision rather than an ultimate vision for the US administration.

 

Zawahiri was the long-time Deputy Leader of AQ with Osama bin Laden, and he undeniably provided much of the intellectual foundation for AQ's international agenda of committing mass-casualty terrorist attacks and promoting sharia governance. AQ under Zawahiri was deliberately communicating with local and regional jihadi organizations, content to quietly rebuild and regroup. Zawahiri's quietism strategy was validated by the patience and perseverance that restore the Taliban to power. He carried the movement together through his force of personality, and strategic vision, which was to allow the various offshoots of AQ to pursue their local and regional agenda and have complete tactical independence. It has been successful.

 

Ayman al-Zawahiri leaves behind a robust network of not only strategically aligned but tactically independent AQ affiliates operating in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. Al-Shabaab and Jamaat Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin have a strong bastion in East Africa and the Sahel, respectively. Al-Qaeda in Arabian Peninsula(AQAP) is still fighting in Yemen and Al-Qaeda in Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) has spread to Bangladesh, India, the Maldives, and Pakistan. Hurras al-Din is working in the Levant. He created an extensive operational bureaucracy in the organizational system with a clear chain of command that ensures that the Group's fate is not tied to any single leader, including himself. Under his leadership, AQ expanded its reach from Mali to Kashmir. He faced challenges in Syria and Iraq; but ultimately, his strategy has been successful being not to be extirpated there. During Zawahiri's tenure, he portrayed AQ as a moderate extremist but did not mean that it has eschewed terrorism or given up its struggle.  So, we can see that AQ tends to survive after the death of its leader because of its operating organizational bureaucracy, enduring ideology and communal support.

 

It is definitely a massive success for intelligence operations, but not for counterterrorism missions. It proves that America can carry out any targeted killing mission without favour. Now, if we look into the trend of such announcement of neutralizing HVTs by the US administration, then it will be clear to us. When the incumbent administration of the US is losing its popularity and the electoral procedure is nearer, then it needs to assure the US citizens that this administration is capable of safeguarding the nation. Americans consider safety as its top priority in their daily life, especially during post 9/11 epoch. So, the Biden administration needs to cover up the shambles it faced in handling Covid-19, the Ukraine war, and the imbroglio with the internal economy in the same way its predecessor did with the likes of Osama bin Laden, Qasem Soleimani, and Baghdadi. However, it is not in the offing that Zawahiri's death will hamper AQ much in the long run. But the current debacle necessitates the US to demonstrate its military prowess that America will not hesitate to strike anywhere around the world when America's safety is concerned. Another intention of this strike is to subdue the Taliban and allude the Afghan Government aware that they have violated the Doha Deal and negotiation with the US to unfreeze the 9 billion in assets that Washington is holding.

 

This whole theatricality is nothing different from the trends adopted by the US during Cold War era. It can showcase the military strength to the other superpowers. But at the end, the obvious question remains yet to be answered as to who is behind the creation of this AQ, Saddam Hussein, ISIL, Taliban or who trained those espionage or law enforcement agencies of countries which are indicted for gross human rights violations? We know the answer and hope to stop creating Frankenstein further. 

This article published at :

1. The New Nation, BD,18Aug22

2. Modern Ghana, Ghana :18Aug22

3. Review Nepal, Kathmandu :18Aug22

Changing calculus on political dynamics in Indo-Pacific region.

M A Hossain, 

Since the fall of the Ottoman Empire post World War-l, the Islamic religiopolitical movement accelerated its activities to revive and embolden the antecedent Islamic systems around the world. After a long battle, the Taliban's victory over the superpower America has re-energized the other mujahideen in their goal to establish Islamic emirate States.

Taliban's very close ally Tehreek-e- Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has re-emerged at the full-throttle after the US debacle in Afghanistan. America's purported "war on terror" has created a vacuum, which might get infused by the Islamic fundamentalism in Asia. And US deprioritisation of counterterrorism over the economy has just might as well galvanised various jihadi organizations to come out of their shells with a view to accomplish their fundamental goal of establishing sharia law in this Region.

Suffice it to say that the TTP, which is incipient since 2007, is a by-product of the US invasion in Afghanistan in 2001. The Taliban shares innate ethnic, ideological and political nexus with TTP. During the US invasion in Afghanistan, TTP facilitated shelters to the Taliban commanders and fighters in the ex-FATA( Federally Administered Tribal Area). The influential Haqqani network of Taliban and TTP has strong interpersonal, wartime bonds, and abundant ethnic amity. TTP has supported the Taliban with the suicide bomber and also shares a common ally with Al-Qaeda(AQ). Soon after the commencement of the peace treaty between the US and Taliban, TTP re-emerged as a strong political power factor in Pakistan. On 30 March 22, TTP launched its insurgency operation against law enforcement agencies from the start of holly Ramadan, which commenced on the 02nd April, 22. They bolstered this operation as the operation Al- Badr, which, they claim, is to be carried out against the Pakistani security forces(SF) and their facilitators only. Their operation has seen till the 29th May, 22, to a reported fatality of 39 SF personnel. TTP is believed to have been at the receiving end of the full support from the Afghan Taliban. At present, Pakistan is going through tremendous economic and political imbroglio. So, understandably Pakistani establishments are resolute on averting another disastrous inland front with TTP and would travel any distance to achieve détente with TTP and this venture for peace by Pakistan has already been conducive of several rounds of negotiation meetings and ceasefire agreements. According to the media reports, the Pakistani government has released 30 TTP jail inmates, which evinces the ardency for peace by the Pakistani establishments. Afghan Taliban is mediating this peace deal.

It is to be seen, how the US and China, the two rival superpowers, respond to this emerging radical violence in Asia. The US had intervened in Afghanistan and Iraq with its so-called "war on terror". But in the end, the US got entwined into an intricate quagmire and lost its previously acquired ground. And to save its face, this superpower had to settle for a peace deal with the Taliban in Afghanistan and had to create a Frankenstein like IS which ruined Iraq. After a protracted war, now US administration has de-prioritized the war against Islam, and containment of China's growth has been exalted to the helm of its list to regain its lost glory. Conversely, China has always exhibited a disposition to avoid confrontation; especially since trade and economic growth are the leading agenda to the polit bureaus in China.

China has a direct suppressible claim on Uighur Muslims and the indirect influence of atrocities on Rohingya. It is the US that raised its voice globally against China's repression of Muslims. But the same allegation can also be raised against the US for aggression in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Yemen. So, regarding these superpowers, what they say is not what they mean and what they mean is unfailingly not what the Muslims need right now. The US made a peace deal with the Taliban and china comes forward with a huge investment in Afghanistan. It is patently obvious that no superpower wants to confront with Islamic forces. Now, amid the growing demands of strategic competition, the US gets an opportunity to sell arms to Pakistan and Pakistan's self-inflicted imbroglio is certainly not the US government's responsibility. China has a huge investment in Pakistan and Afghanistan. So, China's green signal has made Pakistani establishments sit for a peace deal with TTP.

TTP has a similar ideological alignment with the Taliban to implement Islamic law known as sharia. So, the Taliban's takeover of Kabul was the new dimension of the geopolitical scenario in Asia. TTP's demand is an aftermath effect of the Kabul fall. TTP strongly demanded the Malakand region for autonomy with sharia law and Pakistani establishments showed a bit soft stance on that. And that is just the beginning of a new dimension in our regional politics. After establishing a foothold in Pakistan, this group is likely to be gravitated towards Kashmir. It is believed that this extremist group will enjoy the state's support. Their ultimate aim is to stand beside repressed Muslims in India.

In this milieu, Bangladesh will not be an exception. It is strongly believed that Al-Qaeda is working silently and covertly in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Indonesia and Malaysia. Myanmar's ARSA is regrouping for their rights. Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan are already experienced with offshoots of AQ. Yemen, Iraq and Syria have strong bastions for AQ. So, AQ brings all the jihadi organisations under one umbrella by pledging allegiance to the Taliban chief. And definitely, these Islamic forces will dictate the future political dynamics in Asia.

This article published at :

1. South Asia Journal, NJ,USA:30Jun22

2. Review Nepal, Kathmandu, Nepal:02Jul22

3. The New Nation, Bangladesh :05Jul22

4. Modern Ghana, Ghana :06Jul22

5. The Arabian Post, UAE, 23Jul22

6. The Daily Excelsior, J&K,03Aug22

North Korea's nuclear missile temptation

M A Hossain,

North Korea's recent volley of advanced nuclear missile tests is designed to grab the full attention of the US and the international community. Despite strong international sanctions and a Covid-19 pandemic-torn crippled economy, Marshall Kim Jong Un seems to have re-calibrated his strategy in dealing with the US as his style of “maximum pressure” strategy. Kim believes the maximum pressure by the flurry of powerful nuclear missile tests might be the only way to push the US to make concessions towards his country.

President Biden's engagement with his global rivals has frustrated his allies and peace-mongering nations. He has been demonstrating a proclivity for opening the curtains with tough rhetoric against his adversaries, but subsequently failed to adhere to the ferocity as promised, which is exhibited in dealing with Iran, Russia and Taliban, and North Korea could well be the next in line to manifest the declawed strength of Biden Administration. Indubitably, the Biden administration's “ill-defined” diplomacy is insufficient to entice Kim Jong Un back into disarmament negotiations. North Korea's leadership and state establishments believe the nuclear arsenal as a vital security crutch to confront an enduring superpower threat to its survival.

The history of repeated dead-end disarmament talks have so far exhibited tedious and yet unsuccessful international efforts to reach a fruitful and decisive agreement with Pyongyang.

The western leaders and its allies have failed to procure commitment from Pyongyang to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, the 1992 accord with South Korea to maintain a nuclear-free peninsula, the 1994 agreed framework, the 2005 six-party talks pledge to abandon the nuclear program, the 2012 agreement to halt enrichment and testing of nuclear weapon and last Singapore joint statement between President Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un endorsing nuclear disarmament. Now the question remains whether it is time to accept the unacceptable nuclear-armed North Korea and offer diplomatic relations by the Western stakeholders to normalize the strained situation. 

In retrospect to the history of American diplomacy, the US played a critical role in resolving nuclear crises. For example, President Richard Nixon normalized Washington-Beijing relations in 1971 without questioning china's nuclear program. It also played a vital role to defuse the Cuban missile crisis, India -Pakistan crisis and the Ussuri river conflict between China and the Soviet Union in 1969. So, the unconditional nuclear status with diplomatic normalization may de-escalate the tense situation in the Asia-pacific region.

The moratorium has largely kept North Korea out of the international spotlight, but long-range missile tests in 2022 suggest that it could reverse the trend to meet domestic goals as well as to coax the US into new negotiations. China, another superpower, has played a smoke and mirror game on North Korea. China has exceedingly depleted the US gambit on North Korea. The US economic sanctions on North Korea have proved insufficient so long China backed Kim's regime. China also ignored the international counter-proliferation financing regime. North Korea will seek more cooperation with China to revive its economy by resuming trade while carrying out a "Tit for tat" response to US sanctions.

On the other hand, nearly 30,000 US troops are stationed in South Korea for bolstering an offshore nuclear umbrella and sea-based ballistic missile defence. On August 21, the US State department approved a USD 258 million sales of precision-guided weapons to South Korea. Two superpowers, China and the US have divided Korea since 1950. The South is talking about the unification of Korea, while the North is demanding the reunification of Korea. This is a major obstacle in finding a lasting peace formula. I don't think both Korea would accept the leadership and political system of each other. In my opinion, Korean people definitely should be brought under a single umbrella, keeping two political systems for two Koreans.  Under this, there will be a common military force to ensure the sovereignty of both the Koreans as well as assure peaceful coexistence with the neighbours like Japan, China and beyond.

The US has a significant role to play in bringing peace to the Korean Peninsula. First, Pentagon has to abandon any sort of regime change scheme like Libya or Iraq in North Korea. A good faith diplomatic détente, starting from vacating the South Korean alliance and lifting economic sanctions, with the tacit legitimization of nuclear status.  This diplomatic gridlock can be dispelled by initiating extra government meetings between former US authorities and North Korean officials in a third country.

This 2022 is the perfect time for North Korea to exert maximum pressure on the US to restore talks, as the US is now struggling with Russia in Eastern Europe and with China in East Asia.  North Korea hopes to use its nuclear temptation as leverage to negotiate a peace treaty with South Korea and US troops withdrawal from the Korean Peninsula.

This article has published at:

1. The Daily Observer, BD:22Apr22

2. The New Nation, BD:23Apr22

3. The Daily Sun,BD:23Apr22

4. Review Nepal, Kathmandu:23Apr22