Pakistan's Political Turmoil and Global Security Concern.

M A Hossain,

Pakistan is currently in a critical juncture of political turmoil which is posing a threat to its sovereignty as well as growing concerns about global security.  Not only that, if Pakistan fails to address the crisis, then definitely it will be the beginning of the extinction of democratic values regionally and globally. Pakistan has also been spiralling towards a severe economic catastrophe and struggling to meet the basic needs of its population. Now Pakistan is in a state of critical emergency after 1971, where the elite class should not repeat their apocalyptic mistake of ignoring the voices of the people. 

The power struggle of the current stalemate began when Imran Khan was ousted in April 2022 following a parliamentary vote of no-confidence.  However, this imbroglio is hardly a scenario that has arisen overnight. This is a result of bankrupt political regimes. Needless to say, Pakistan's ruling power has generally been characterized by its preference for one side of the Pakistan Army. Each of the five prime ministers has been indicted or imprisoned after leaving office. The military-dominated Pakistan has a long record of engineering the electoral playing field to achieve the Army's preferred result.

Corruption has long been a pressing issue in Pakistan's political landscape, with high-profile corruption cases involving influential politicians and bureaucrats. These scandals have eroded public trust in the government and raised concerns about the misuse of public funds. The economic condition in Pakistan was facing a severe crisis. Now the devastating flood of 2022, 50-years high inflation, food and energy shortage, collapsed investment, critically low exports, and foreign exchange reserve, mounting foreign debt, and the failure of international lenders have further exacerbated the situation.  Furthermore, Covid-19 and the invasion of Ukraine by Russia put tremendous pressure on world food and energy prices, which has had a negative impact on Pakistan's economy.

Pakistan is experiencing violent social unrest. Economic challenges, rising inflation, polarized politics, and unemployment have contributed to the frustration and discontent among the populace, especially the youth where over 60% of the population is under the age of 30.  A weaponized society with nothing to lose has grown a new ability to touch the untouchable elite Institutions.  Furthermore, ethnic and sectarian tensions, mass reform movements recently by religio- political parties, and engagement between Tehreek-e- Taliban Pakistan(TTP) and security forces clearly spelled out the public frustration with elite Institutions or ruling systems.

Pakistani, especially the young generation, are frustrated and possess discontent with the country's political discourse of weakening opponents and appeasing puppet masters.  Poor dynastic leadership has also paved the way for military intervention in state power. Imran Khan has taken advantage of the situation to make himself the savior of the nation. However, he is also seen as a trump card for Islamic jihadist organizations. His party’s strongholds, including Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, Lahore, and Punjab, are all strongly under the control of Islamic jihadist groups.  Imran Khan as a prime minister praised the mujahideen and hailed Osama bin Laden as Shahid (martyr) in the parliament. One more significant thing, the Pakistani Constitution has ensured the right to choose the Sharia rule provincially or in special administrative areas.

Now, in recent years, TTP or other similar religio- political fundamentalists have exhibited mass reform movements and continue armed struggle across the country. Their issue-based movement has become popular among the countrymen and their armed struggle has made the elite establishment bound to sit for a peace deal with TTP. We will be in a fool's paradise if we ignore the smartness and political acumen of present Islamic jihadist organizations. Now the situation in Pakistan is more favorable for TTP as well as International Islamic militant organizations. The Pakistani Judiciary, PTI, Islamic militant organizations, and military, Pakistan Democratic Movement(PDM) coalition are near to head-on collision. The worst possible fact is civil war, and the next phase will be the triumph of the Islamic jihadist movement.

The pressing question that demands attention from global leaders is why Pakistan should be a cause for concern. We must not forget that Pakistan is a nuclear-armed nation. Drawing upon my extensive two-decade study of Islamic militant organizations, it is evident that the Islamic jihadist movement will emerge at full throttle in Pakistan. In my opinion, Pakistan will be Afghanistan 2.0 today or tomorrow unless the crisis is not dealt with appropriately. This ideological warfare is just like cancer in the human body. If we fail to recognize it at an early stage, it would leave us no choice but to surrender.  Now, if we compare the situation of Pakistan with earlier Afghanistan, Iraq, Burkina Faso, and Mali, then it becomes evident that Pakistan is at the last stage of ideological cancer.  I assume that the next Islamic jihadist movement is likely to extend its reach to Kashmir and Yemen. If this movement gains traction in Pakistan, then it will be a matter of time to establish a strong jihadist bastion in South Asia and the Middle East.

The West, unfortunately, has deprioritized its engagement against Islamic militant organizations, which will compromise the value of democracy and bring a new dimension to democratic countries globally. To be sure, we will not be able to see democracy piping over the Great Wall in the East and the African-Russian imaginary barrier in the West. Meanwhile, Somalia and Yemen will serve as strategic game-changer, providing an economic lifeline for international Islamic jihadist organizations. 

So, where does the savior of democracy lie? Or, are democracy and human rights merely tools used to suppress third-world nations? These crucial questions demand answers. 

In conclusion, my perception will only begin to take shape once Islamabad falls. Pakistan must respond quickly because time is not on its side. Now the most straightforward way to restore peace in Pakistan would be through timely, free and fair elections, unfettered by the establishment's intervention. An elected government has the potential to restore confidence in Pakistan's Institutions, and that confidence is as desirable for Beijing and Riyadh as it is for Washington and New Delhi. Otherwise, the simplest explanation for other means may align with my perceptions(!), ultimately, becoming a stark reality.

M A Hossain, political and defense analyst based in Bangladesh. 

Email: writetomahossain@gmail.com

This article published at :

1. Modern Diplomacy, EU:20May23

2. The North Lines, India :21May23

3. IPA, India: 21May23

4. The New Nation, BD:22May23

5. The Daily Excelsior, India: 22May23

6. The Hitavada, Nagpur,India:21May23

7. The Arabian Post, UAE:22May23

8. The Hills Times, india: 24May23

9. The Asian Age, BD:30May23

The Pinyin And Future Asian Union.

M A Hossain,

The 19th century has been commonly referred to as the era of 'Pax Britannia' owing to the unparalleled dominance of the British Empire across the world. Subsequently, the 20th century was dubbed as the 'American Century' in recognition of the United States' meteoric rise as a superpower and its immense influence over global politics, economy, and culture. As we progress further into the 21st century, there is a growing consensus among analysts and experts that the century belongs to China, which has been hailed as the frontrunner of the 'Pinyin', or 'Chinese Century.

The polit bureau of the Chinese Communist Party (CPC) has amended the country's constitutional provision thus paving the way for President Xi Jinping to remain in the office until it is required both by China and the Asian nations. We have to, first of all, understand certain points. No one can undermine the magnanimous contributions of Comrade Mao Zedong, who actually is the founder of a politically and diplomatically strong China. Mr Xi Jinping actually is the real successor of Comrade Mao, and he is the founder of a new China, which not only is very strong both politically and diplomatically but also is the fastest-growing economy in the world.

While comrade Mao's dreams were fundamentally for the betterment of China- politically, diplomatically and economically; President Xi's visions are for China in particular and the rest of the Asian nations in general. The 'Made in China' vision has already been largely implemented. President Xi's brilliant idea of establishing connectivity amongst the Asian nations and Europe and beyond is ultimately going to bring fruits of prosperity in Asia. Possibly, One Belt One Road (OBOR) will place China into the lead role of promoting. 'Made in Asia' products to Europe, America, Australia and the African continent.

Implementation of OBOR means the creation of millions of new job opportunities in all the Asian nations. President Xi is dreaming of transforming Asia into an Economic superpower in this unipolar world. And once Asia reaches that status, global politics and diplomacy will ultimately come under the total control of us – the Asians.

As we know, Europe, Australia, and the United States of America had already reached the optimum level of progress. Still, there is a huge unemployment crisis. But, Asian nations by and large today are either underdeveloped or developing, the implementation of OBOR certainly would not have any unemployment problem for the residents of the continent. Instead, we are going to offer job opportunities to people from other continents as the next Asia is certainly going to become the hub of economic activities.  We have many advantages in comparison to our neighbours on other continents. Labour is cheaper here, people are hardworking, and we are blessed with natural and mineral resources worth trillions of dollars, ninety-five per cent of which are still unexplored.

In the future, under the leadership of President Xi Jinping would also have our common currency which easily can turn into the strongest currency in the world-much stronger than Euro, Pound or the US dollar.

Yes, I am talking about a future Asian Union, which will turn into a reality within the next two decades or even earlier, under the leadership of China. Just think about the military strength of the Asian Union! Military manpower size of a combined Chinese, Russian, Indian, North Korean, Pakistani, and the rest of the Asian nations would be unchallengeable. Similarly, the military technology and logistics of an Asian Union combining China, India, North Korea, Israel, and Pakistan would be gigantic in a real sense. None of the neighbours from the other continent would take the risk of indulging into military tussle with the Asian Union. Military supremacy will come to our grips.

The concept involves the creation of a political and economic union between all Asian nations. If this becomes a reality, then it would represent a significant shift in the global power dynamics. Asia has some of the world's largest and strongest economies, like China, Japan, India, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and South Korea. It would also create the largest single market of over 4 billion people, surpassing both the European Union and the United States. The creation of the Asian Union will eliminate the barriers, like a complex web of tariffs, regulations and cultural differences for businesses to operate across the region. This would become a key player in shaping the direction of the world economy.

In addition to its economic and military power, the Asian Union would also have a significant political influence on the world stage. The member nations would be able to speak with a single voice on key global and regional issues. The Asian Union would have the ability to balance the influence of the United States and the European Union for building a more multipolar world order.

However, there would also be challenges associated with the creation of the Asian Union. One of the key challenges would be navigating the complex geopolitical relationships in the region. Then strain relations with the neighbours including India, China, Korea, Israel, and Japan. The Asian Union would need to facilitate an equal voice in decision-making among the union. In my opinion, these challenges could be overcome through dialogue and positive gestures of powerful members like China, India, Israel, North Korea, Iran, and Saudi Arabia.

Some people are wrongly interpreting the constitutional amendment by the CPC as a move of turning Mr Xi as the President for life. Some others are even saying, almost all the powers are now been placed into the hands of the President and the ruling party has turned insignificant.

These assessments are grossly misleading and wrong. Power always remains with the ruling party-the CPC, and the polit bureau members only decided to let President Xi remain in office until it is required by China and Asia. In China, the ruling party always holds a key role. Ask anyone in the world, the name of the Chinese ruling party and the President. Everyone will give the correct answer. But if you ask, for example, the name of the Russian President and the ruling party, you'll get a half-answer. Most people have even never heard the name of the Russian ruling party.

In every country in the world, except China and North Korea, the ruling party actually gets eclipsed under the shadow of the head of the government. This makes China's political system more accountable and more pro-people. So, It's the time to unite all Asian nations under the leadership of pro-people rule.

M A Hossain, political and defence analyst based in Bangladesh.

Email: writetomahossain@gmail.com

This article published at :

1. Policy Watcher: 05May23

2. The Pakistan Daily : Pakistan :09May23

BRICS: Reshaping the Global Economic and Political Order.

M A Hossain, 

The BRICS term refers to a group of five nations, namely Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. The first summit of this alliance in 2009 sparked debates on its geopolitical and geo-economic significance. The political pundits view it as a new political world order and a shift in power from the 'Global North' to the 'Global South'. The member nations account for almost half of the world's population and reports suggest that their combined Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is 31.5%, surpassing the G7's contribution of 30.7%.  Despite their differences in political, economic, and cultural spares, BRICS countries have launched the New Development Bank with seed money of $50 billion to boost their greater integration and strengthen their position in the international arena.

Initially, BRICS was recognized as a forward-thinking economic forum, but its focus shifted after the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The forum is now pointing out critical matters such as trade, finance, climate change, and energy security, and its impact extends to shaping the global economic landscape. As a result, it is going to challenge the dominance of Western-backed the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The magic bone for BRICS to bring them together is its diversity. Each member country brings a unique set of economic and political landscapes to the forum, which has created a rich tapestry of interests and perspectives. For example, Brazil is a major agricultural exporter, while Russia is a leading energy exporter. India is an emerging economic power which has a large and growing middle class, while China is a global economic and manufacturing superpower. South Africa, meanwhile, is a leading player in the mining industry. This diversity has strengthened BRICS to explore its resources and expertise to pursue the shared challenges of its own development path.

BRICS is also an outcome of challenging the monopoly and questioning the legitimacy of existing West-backed monetary Institutions and frameworks.  The IMF and World Bank were established after World War II to dominate global trade and market access by the West. These Institutions are facing criticism globally. It works as an expansion tool for the 'Global North' by considering political concerns rather than an acute crisis for loan facilities. Even nowadays, they use democracy and Human Rights as a fig leaf to masquerade the Western political agenda. However, BRICS has sought to establish new trading relationships and agreements outside the Western-dominated system, which will curtail the advantages of the West's so long-enjoyed trade agreements and market access. BRICS has the potential to help poorer countries as it does not pursue any political agenda nor indirectly manipulate and control local economics. Moreover, NDB and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank(AIIB) are more reflective of their priorities to represent the interests of emerging economies.

Western Monopoly in geopolitics, the recently Russia-Ukraine war has exposed the necessity of massive expansion in BRICS. The success of BRICS has made other economic giants like Argentina, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, and Mexico interested to invest in this bloc. Recently, some Western countries are going through a tremendous economic crisis. Their economic growth is declining, and social turmoil is increasing. In this critical juncture, the 'Global South' has taken a step to introduce an alternative to the dollar-based trading system. China and Brazil agreed to cross-border trade with local currency without the dollar system. It is more likely that some Latin countries are going to follow the local currency system for cross-border trade. ASEAN nations have called for an alternative to dollar-based trading at finance ministers' and central bank governors' summits in Indonesia. Russia-India is trading with local currency and India-Bangladesh is in process. No doubt, this trend was neither the first nor it will be the last.

BRICS has significant potential for economic growth and innovation. Their collective strengths and investments in emerging technologies like artificial Intelligence, blockchain and renewable energy could make a major driving force for the global economy and innovation in the coming days. This would require greater investment in education, research, and development as well as greater cooperation between member countries to share knowledge and expertise. BRICS also has significant potential for growth and influence. It could lead to promoting sustainable development and climate change. It could help to drive the transition to a more sustainable and equitable global economy.

In addition, BRICS countries are asserting themselves on the global political stage. This is evident in areas such as climate change, International negotiations, peacekeeping, and conflict resolution efforts where member countries have emerged as key players. This increased assertiveness challenges the traditional role of Western power as the dominant actor in global politics. BRICS countries are also challenging the West's cultural dominance. Now, BRICS is changing the cultural landscape, which is becoming more diverse and pluralistic.  Defying the Western culture in music, film and literature, BRICS countries are producing their own distinctive styles and voices.

At the outset, the member countries of BRICS are facing some challenges too. There is a concern about political tension, particularly between India and China. The shifting of global political landscapes like protectionism, populism, and nationalism are threatening the core principles of free trade and globalisation which will underpin the BRICS's success. Another challenge is the willingness to join this organisation. The increase in member states will make it very difficult to maintain the current growth rate. At the same time, economic and political freedom has to be ensured in new member states.

It is important to note that BRICS countries are not seeking to replace the West, rather they are seeking greater representation and influence in global affairs. BRICS demands a more equitable and inclusive global economic and political system. Let the West recognise the BRICS as an opportunity for greater cooperation and collaboration between different regions and cultures.

M A Hossain, political and defence analyst based in Bangladesh. 

Email:writetomahossain@gmail.com

This article published at :

1. Modern Diplomacy : EU:23 Apr23

2. Asian Age, BD:09May23

3. infobrics.org: 19May23

The political instability in Nepal and its geopolitical implications.

M A Hossain,

Nepal is a small, landlocked country by two giant powers, China and India in South Asia.  It is renowned for its diverse culture, Himalayan mountains and historical landmarks.  However, the country has been scuffling with political instability since its multi-party democracy installed. Nepal has come across a political history of coups, unrest, and changes in government.  In 1990, the country adopted a new constitution and King Birendra ceded power to the democratic government, But that change did not bring political stability where frequent changes in government and a lack of political consensus remains De ja vu. Nepal's current political situation is marked by a constitutional crisis, corruption, and political polarization, all of which have significant geopolitical implications.

Nepal adopted a new constitution in 2015, and it created a constitutional crisis, leading to protest and a blocked along the Nepal-India border. The Madhesi community in the Southern Plains claimed that the new constitution was discriminatory, divisive, and controversial.  Corruption is another major factor contributing to political instability in Nepal.  It is pervasive in Nepali polities and has rusted public trust in government institutions which challenging to build political consensus.

Political polarization is also a significant factor contributing to political instability in Nepal. The deep divide between left-wing and right -wing political forces has made it difficult to build consensus.  That causes frequent changes in the government.  In recent years, Nepal has experienced multiple changes in government due to internal political conflicts, legal challenges, and prolonged political crises. For instance, in December 2020, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli dissolved Parliament and called for a new election, leading to protest and a prolonged political crisis. Nepal's Supreme Court intervened and reinstated the dissolved parliament in May 2021.

In 2023, lawmakers in Nepal have elected a new President amid escalating political instability in the Himalayan nation. The incumbent coalition government, which has succeeded power for only a few months back, is proving to be fragile.  Ram Chandra Poudel, a former parliament speaker and senior leader of the opposition Nepali Congress Party, elected as the new President, defeating his sole rival, Subhash Chandra Nembang.

This presidential election has triggered a dispute among the ruling coalition partners. Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, who assumed office in December 2022, supported Poudel, leading to a rift with the Communist Party of Nepal(UML), which supported its candidate, Nembang.  This division ultimately resulted in the CPN withdrawing from the coalition, and Dahal losing the backing of three crucial political parties that were initially part of his government's composition.

Nepal's contribution to India's internal security framework warrants particular acknowledgement. It also acts as a safe haven for drug cartels, hawala agents, and human trafficking syndicates.  Another issue of internal security pertains to the connection or association between Maoist factions operating in both India and Nepal. The Communist Party of India (Maoist) envisions a "red corridor" stretching from Nepal's southern border, which abuts the Terai region of Uttar Pradesh, to the Western Ghats tri-junction of Kerala, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu.

China aspires to establish enduring physical connections between the two nations, capable of persisting beyond shifts in governance in Kathmandu. The prospect of reestablishing relations with a leader who previously condemned India as an "expansionist" entity and the US as an "imperialist power" will inevitably disappoint both New Delhi and Washington.

Nepal's political instability has significant geopolitical implications for the region. Being a buffer state between India and China, any instability in Nepal could affect its relations with its neighboring countries. India is Nepal's largest trading partner, and the two countries share deep cultural and historical ties. China, on the other hand, has been increasing its influence in Nepal through infrastructure investments and other projects. Nepal's strategic location between two of the world's most populous countries contributes its geopolitical importance.

The instability in Nepal may have an impact on the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), of which Nepal is a member state. The political instability also has an impact on foreign aid and investment, which the country heavily relies on. Already, political instability has resulted in significant economic and social consequences, including negatively impacting its heavily reliant tourism industry. The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated the country's economic and development woes such as poverty, inequality, and infrastructure deficits.

The historiography of political instability in Nepal has been fraught with numerous attempts to combat it, yet they have been largely ineffective due to their failure to address the fundamental underpinnings of the issue. The conundrum of instability persists, casting a shadow over the prospects for Nepal's future.  One potential solution to promote political consensus among Nepali political parties could be achieved through dialogue and compromise among political parties.

M A Hossain, political and defense analyst based in Bangladesh.

Email: writetomahossain@gmail.com

   

This article published at :

1. South Asia Journal, NJ,USA:03Apr23

2. The Asian Age, BD: 16 Oct 23

Is the Water War imminent?

M A Hossain, 

With the world's population increasing and climate change worsening water scarcity, the likelihood of a global water war grows. Due to water being a finite resource, conflicts over water are becoming more prevalent as demand surpasses supply. The United Nations estimates that by 2025, half of the world's population will live in water-stressed areas, increasing the urgency of this issue. Water wars are conflicts between nations concerning access to water resources, which can be triggered by population growth, climate change, and irregular distribution of water resources. In the future, water wars may become more frequent as nations compete for access to this vital resource.

The concept of a water war is not new. Historically, water has been a cause of conflict in many parts of the world. The Tigris-Euphrates river system, for example, has been the subject of disputes between Turkey, Syria, and Iraq for decades. In recent years, tensions have risen over the construction of dams and the diversion of water resources, leading to fears of a potential conflict.

The potential for conflict over water resources is particularly acute in regions where water is already scarce. The Middle East, for example, is home to some of the world's most water-stressed nations. The Nile River, which provides water to over 300 million people, is also a source of tension for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia.

China's Mekong Dam initiative on the Mekong River has resulted in a protracted period of aridity in the neighbouring nations of Thailand, Laos, Myanmar, Cambodia, and Vietnam. On the other hand, the Itaipu hydroelectric facility, situated on the banks of the Parana River that demarcates the Brazil-Paraguay border, has emerged as a potential cause of conflict between the two nations.

South Asia is home to over 1.7 billion people, many of whom face significant water challenges. The region is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, with rising temperatures and changing weather patterns leading to increased water scarcity. The Himalayan region, which is a crucial source of freshwater for the region, is also under threat from melting glaciers and artificial obstacles in the natural flow. As a result, conflicts over water resources are becoming more common in the region, with disputes over the sharing of river waters between India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh being particularly contentious. 

Water wars are a potential consequence of climate change and population growth. As the global population increases, the water demand will also increase, leading to competition for limited resources. This competition could lead to conflict between countries, and regions. In some cases, water wars could be fought over access to water resources, while in other cases, they could be fought over control of water resources.

Climate change could lead to an increase in extreme weather cases, such as floods and droughts, which could further exacerbate the water crisis. Already, we are seeing the effects of climate change on water availability. In some parts of the world, droughts are becoming more frequent and severe, while in others, rising sea levels are contaminating freshwater resources.

A hydro-crisis could also be triggered by a sustained El Niño event, which is a periodic warming of the central Pacific Ocean. If we have a prolonged period of warm water in the central Pacific Ocean, it can underscore the drought that’s already happening in certain regions.

Another factor contributing to the likelihood of water wars is the unequal distribution of water resources. Many of the world's largest rivers cross national borders, and countries upstream have an advantage in terms of water access. This has led to tensions between upstream and downstream nations, as the former can use their control of water resources as a political bargaining chip.

Water wars are not limited to disputes between nations. In some cases, conflicts over water can arise within a single country. In India, for example, the distribution of water resources between different states has led to violent clashes between farmers and other groups.  Water resources like the Nile, Ganges- Brahmaputra in the Indian subcontinent, the Indus river in Asia, and the Tigris-Euphrates and Colorado rivers are highlighted as potential hotspots. 

The potential for water wars highlights the need for global cooperation to manage this vital resource. The UN has acknowledged water as a human right, and efforts are underway to improve water management and conservation. However, more needs to be done to address the underlying causes of water scarcity and prevent conflicts from arising.

One solution is to invest in infrastructure to increase water efficiency and reduce waste. Desalination plants, for example, can provide a reliable source of freshwater in coastal areas, while water recycling systems can help reduce the demand for freshwater resources. Investing in these technologies can help ensure that water is used more sustainably and reduce the risk of conflicts over water resources.

Another approach is to promote international cooperation and dialogue to manage shared water resources. The UN has established some initiatives to promote cooperation between nations, including the Water for Life Decade and the International Year of Water Cooperation. These efforts aim to build trust and collaboration between nations and reduce the risk of conflicts over water resources.

Historically, wars have been fought over land, resources, and economic gain. But,

the prospect of water wars in the future is a very real one. As water becomes scarcer and demand continues to rise, conflicts over water resources are likely to become more expected. However, by investing in water efficiency and promoting global cooperation, we can help ensure that water is used more sustainably and reduce the risk of conflicts over this vital resource. The need for action is pressing, and the time to act is now.

M A Hossain, political and defence analyst based in Bangladesh. 

Email: writetomahossain@gmail.com

This article published at :

1. The Asian Age, BD:28Mar23

2. The Business Standard, BD:16Apr23

3. Pakistan Observer, Pakistan :06May23

Reshaping security dynamics in the Middle East.

M A Hossain,

Iran and Saudi Arabia are two of the most influential and rival countries in the Middle East(ME).  These two rivals have been engaged in a power struggle to establish their dominance in the region, and their rivalry has had far-reaching consequences not only in the region but also on the global stage. Recently, Riyadh and Tehran announced of restoring full diplomatic relations in an agreement brokered by China. Obviously, that could reduce tensions in the Middle East and assert China's growing influence in the Gulf. China’s powerful and rising diplomatic presence in the Gulf is reshaping the security dynamics, and it contributes to a narrative of a shrinking US global presence.

The tumultuous tale of Iran-Saudi Arabia animosity dates back to the epochal 1979 Islamic revolution that upended the Persian nation. As the years rolled on, this hostility intensified and reached a boiling point during the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s. Saudi Arabia and a host of other Arab countries brazenly backed Iraq in their relentless strife against Iran. Fast-forward to the Arab Spring in 2011, and this longstanding rivalry took on a fresh and fevered pitch. In the cauldron of political upheaval, both nations seized an opportunity to exert their influence and gain an upper hand in the tumultuous region. Unsurprisingly, the belligerent duo opted for a proxy war strategy, with Iran providing support to Shia-militia, while Saudi Arabia offered its backing to Sunni tribes. The battlegrounds of this ferocious feud spanned far and wide, from Lebanon and Yemen to Bahrain, Iraq, and Syria.

The animosity between Iran and Saudi Arabia has had profound and wide-ranging repercussions both regionally and globally. The strife in Syria has resulted in the dislocation of millions of individuals and has destabilised the region. Similarly, the conflict in Yemen has triggered a humanitarian catastrophe, with millions of individuals confronted with starvation and illness. These two nations are significant oil producers on the international stage, and any discord between them can have a disruptive effect on the global oil market. Furthermore, the emergence of extremist Islamic organisations, such as ISIS and Al-Qaeda, in that area, represents an opportunity cost resulting from the ongoing tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

 

China possesses the ability to intervene in the Middle Eastern region and mediate in the diplomatic relationships between Iran and Saudi Arabia, to the detriment of American interests and sway. Saudi Arabia has been a crucial cornerstone of the United States' ties within the area. However, Saudi Arabia gradually altered its policies after the 9/11 attacks, and the US failed to lend its support in response to the Iranian attack on Abqaiq in 2019. The Western world has advocated for the cessation of arms sales to Saudi Arabia during the Yemeni conflict. Furthermore, Riyadh's choice to sever diplomatic relations with Qatar in 2017 was deemed controversial by the USA.

 On the other hand, in December 2022, Iran and China agreed to a 25-year deal aimed at enhancing their relationship. China has also entered into a five-year plan with six Gulf nations. It is apparent that China is actively seeking to broaden its connections within the region, and the collaboration between Iran and Saudi Arabia to cooperate with China in achieving normalisation between them is indicative of China's ascension to a strategic partner within the region.

China has emerged as a significant patron of oil from Saudi Arabia and Iran. Its adeptness in fostering cordial ties with the countries flanking the Persian Gulf has enabled it to amass diplomatic capital that exceeds that of other non-regional powers. Notably, the United States' influence in Tehran is conspicuously non-existent, whereas China has strategically employed the carrot of economic and developmental aid without showing the stick of punitive measures, to pursue its interests. Conversely, the US has typically resorted to punitive measures alone, lacking the diplomatic finesse that China possesses.

 

Unfortunately, Washington's standing as a peace broker in the vicinity has been undermined by its perceived unreliability and inclination to favour one side in disputes, as observed in Yemen and Syria. Conversely, China is regarded as a flexible mediator that refrains from favouring any particular side. Consequently, a higher number of regional stakeholders may seek China's assistance as a mediator in forthcoming endeavours.

Since the inception of the trillion-dollar initiative announced by the Chinese leader in 2013, over 200 major energy and infrastructure projects have been successfully completed in the region. Despite the significant challenges, many of the targets set by the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) have been achieved. During Xi's visit in December 2022, China and Saudi Arabia released a joint statement underscoring the importance of augmenting bilateral collaboration in military and security domains, with a focus on combating terrorism and extremism and upholding regional peace and stability. Additionally, China pledged its support to the Gulf states in maintaining their security, resolving conflicts through peaceful means, and developing a new and comprehensive security framework for the Gulf.

The recent re-establishment of diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran has raised questions about the shift in power dynamics in the Middle East region. China's growing involvement in the region, particularly its close ties with Iran, has led many to believe that it is slowly replacing the United States as a key player in the region. Therefore, while China's increasing role in the region cannot be ignored, the US remains a vital security partner for the Gulf Arab states, and their strategic alliance is likely to continue in the foreseeable future.

M A Hossain, political and defence analyst based in Bangladesh.

Email: writetomahossain@gmail.com

This article published :

1. South Asia Journal, NJ,USA :17Mar23

2. Modern Ghana, Ghana :17Mar23

3. Review Nepal, Kathmandu :17Mar23

4. The Asian Age, BD:18Mar23

The conflict between Qadiyani and Muslims.

M A Hossain, 

On 03 March 2023, there was a clash between police and some Islamist groups for postponing Ahmadiyya's Jalsa Salana(the annual convention) in Panchagarh. This news has intrigued me to know about the Ahmadiyya community. As Muslims, we must know the status of Ahmadiyya and their beliefs. In this article, I will explore the history of the Ahmadiyya movement, their beliefs, the difference between Ahmadiyya and mainstream Muslims, and the wrongdoing of mainstream Muslims in Bangladesh.

Ahmadiyya or Qadiyani is a so-called Islamic revival or messianic movement originating from Qadian in Punjab, British India, in 1889. The founder of the movement, Mirza Ghulam Ahmad (1835 -1908) claimed to be a prophet of Islam(!), who also claimed to have been divinely appointed as both the promised Mahdi and Messiah expected by the Muslims to appear towards the end time of the universe.

Mirza Ghulam Ahmad established the community on March 23, 1889, by formally accepting allegiance from his supporters. Since his death, the community has been led by a succession of caliphs. The Qadiyanis have a strong missionary tradition and are almost entirely organised as a single, highly active missionary program in the world. The Qadiyani movement emerged in India with the help of the British East India Company. They published many books supporting the East India Company's rule and rendered jihad in its military form as inapplicable, which paved the way to divert the attention of trapped Muslims against British rule. Later, in 1913, this missionary organisation established its headquarters in London

Currently, the Qadiyani community has missionary branches in 213 countries, with significant concentrations in South Asia, West and East Africa, and Indonesia. Their estimated worldwide population is 10 million. In Bangladesh, they have 103 missionary branches and are established in 425 locations within the community.

Qadiyani believes in the fundamental teachings of Islam.  However, their belief in the prophethood of Mirza Ghulam Ahmad is what sets them apart from mainstream Muslims. Ghulam Ahmad believed that his message had special relevance for the Western world, which, he believed, had descended into materialism.  Aside from this belief in all Prophets in the Quran and the Old Testament, the community also regards Zoroaster, Krishna, Buddha, and Confucius as prophets. According to the Qadiyani beliefs, Hell is understood as a temporary abode, lasting an extremely long time but not everlasting, much like in mainstream Judaism.  Qadiyani also believes in the concept of the caliphate or spiritual leadership. They also believe in the concept of Jihad or striving in the way of God, but reject the use of force.

The difference in beliefs between mainstream Muslims and Qadiyanis are distinct. Qadiyani believes that Hazrat Isa (A)[Jesus] was crucified and survived the four hours on the cross and was later revived from a swoon in the tomb. They also believe that Jesus died in Kashmir of old age while seeking the Lost Tribes of Israel. This belief contradicts mainstream Muslims under Quranic verses chapter 4 verses 157, 158. Qadiyanis have different opinions on the meaning of 'Khataman Nabiyyan( the seal of the prophets)'. Muslims believe that Hazrat Muhammad (SM) is the last Prophet of Allah, but Qadiyani claims Ghulam Ahmad as their new prophet but subordinate to Muhammad(SM). This is drifted from chapter 33 verse 40 in the Quran. Qadiyanis do not believe that any verse of the Quran abrogates or cancels other verses, unlike mainstream Muslims.  The most important religious function of the Qadiyani is Jalsa salana, which does not have any entity in the duties of Islam.

Qadiyanis have been viewed as infidels and heretics by the Muslims.  The Organisation of Islamic Cooperation(OIC) formally declared that Ahmadiyya was not linked to Islam. Pakistan declared Ahmadi as non-Muslims and termed them as Qadiyani.  Some Islamist groups are demonstrating on demand to declare Qadiyani as non-Muslims in Bangladesh.

If we recall two incidents from the life of our Prophet (PBUH), there were two individuals who made false claims of prophecy: Musaylimah al-Kadhdhab in Yamama and Aswad Ansi in Yemen. Our Prophet (PBUH) declared war against Musaylimah's community and ordered a group to neutralize them until they returned with their submission. He also ordered to kill Aswad Ansi. However, our Prophet (PBUH) passed away before this task could be completed. Nonetheless, the first Caliph, Abu Bakr (R), made it his top priority to send the group to neutralize Musaylimah al-Kadhdhab and the first good news that he heard as Caliph was of Aswad Ansi's death at the hands of the group of Muslims.

In the context of Bangladesh, it is not an Islamic Emirate, and thus, the protesters should have sought the help of local law enforcement agencies to stop the open convention if it hurt the sentiments of Muslims. According to the OIC's resolution in 1973, the Bangladesh government must not allow this missionary organisation to deceive ordinary Muslims. As a secular country, individuals and groups are free to practice their religion within their own confines and make it an indoor activity. Islam does not permit causing maximum damage to infants, elderly women or men, or maximum loss of houses, wealth, or crops. If such damage occurs, then the responsibility lies with the Muslims or the leading organisations, and it would be a breach of the existing laws.

Many non-Muslims even Muslims, are not well aware of the differences between Qadiyani and Islam and often assume that Qadiyanis are the offshoot of Islam. This has led to confusion and misunderstanding about the nature of the Qadiyani movement. It is very well expected from the Muslim community to know the right thing and act rightfully.

M A Hossain, political and defence analyst based in Bangladesh. 

Email: writetomahossain@gmail.com

This article published :

1. The Asian Age, Bangladesh :12Mar23