To rescue Pakistan from economic catastrophe, the top-priority is national unity.

M A Hossain, 

In the wake of ongoing economic turmoil, Pakistan stands at a critical juncture, contending with severe financial challenges despite its abundant resources. Once hailed for its potential and economic growth, the nation now faces the specter of bankruptcy. In the South Asian region, even a few years ago, Pakistan was considered a country of infinite possibilities. Investors were showing eagerness to invest in Pakistan. Even the economic growth of Pakistan was far ahead of most of the South Asian nations. According to statistics, in 2009-2010, Pakistan’s GDP was 4.1 percent and was expected to grow further in the subsequent years. With such a background-one may ask -what has gone wrong in Pakistan? Why is this nation of infinite possibility now heading towards economic bankruptcy?

For decades, Pakistan has steered a complex socio-political landscape, marked by factionalism and discord. This fragmentation has encumbered progress and eroded public trust in institutions. While various factors contribute to the current quandary, including governance inefficiencies and external pressures, the foremost obstacle remains the lack of cohesive national identity and solidarity.

In times of crisis, nations must unite under a common purpose, transcending political divides and personal interests. The economic challenges confronting Pakistan demand collective action and unwavering commitment from all stakeholders. It is no longer sufficient to attribute blame or engage in partisan rhetoric; instead, concerted efforts towards reconciliation and collaboration are imperative.

National unity serves as the bedrock for economic stability and sustainable development. A united front enables the formulation and implementation of comprehensive reforms, essential for restoring investor confidence and stimulating growth. Moreover, it fosters resilience in the face of external pressures, ensuring that Pakistan's sovereignty and interests are safeguarded.

The path to national unity requires introspection and dialogue across all segments of society. It necessitates a shared vision for the future, grounded in principles of inclusivity, justice, and prosperity for all citizens. Political leaders must rise above narrow agendas and prioritize the collective welfare, recognizing that the fate of the nation transcends partisan interests.

Furthermore, the role of civil society, academia, and the media is paramount in promoting dialogue and fostering understanding among diverse communities. By fostering a culture of tolerance and cooperation, these institutions can bridge divides and cultivate a sense of belonging among all Pakistanis.

Importantly, the military establishment, as a crucial pillar of the state, must align its efforts with civilian authorities to pursue the common good. While security concerns remain paramount, a collaborative approach to governance and development is essential for long-term stability and progress.

In addition to domestic efforts, Pakistan must engage constructively with the international community, leveraging partnerships for mutual benefit. Economic diplomacy and trade alliances can open new avenues for growth and diversify the economy, reducing dependence on traditional sources of revenue.

At its core, the quest for national unity is a moral imperative, transcending economic considerations. It embodies the spirit of resilience and solidarity that defines the Pakistani nation, inspiring hope and confidence in the face of adversity.

Meanwhile, Pakistan can take several urgent measures in salvaging its economy from bankruptcy. Here are some suggestions:

 

Privatizing Pakistan's state-owned enterprises:

As Pakistan faces economic challenges, exploring avenues for revitalization becomes imperative. Among the various strategies available, offloading state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to prospective foreign investors stands out as a promising solution. This approach not only injects much-needed capital into the economy but also fosters efficiency, innovation, and competitiveness in key sectors. However, such a significant step requires careful consideration of its implications and execution.

State-owned enterprises have long been a cornerstone of Pakistan's economy, playing a significant role in various sectors, including energy, telecommunications, and transportation. However, inefficiencies, mismanagement, and corruption have plagued many SOEs, stifling growth and draining public resources. Privatization offers a compelling alternative, unleashing the potential for transformation and revitalization. 

It may be mentioned here that, by offloading SOEs to foreign investors, Pakistan can attract capital investment, technology transfer, and expertise, driving innovation and modernization. Foreign investors bring not only financial resources but also global best practices and market access, positioning privatized enterprises for sustainable growth and competitiveness in the international market.

Moreover, privatization fosters accountability and transparency, as private owners are incentivized to maximize efficiency and profitability. This shift from state control to private ownership reduces bureaucratic red tape and political interference, enabling enterprises to operate with greater agility and responsiveness to market dynamics.

The benefits of privatization extend beyond economic considerations to social and environmental dimensions. Privatized enterprises are often better equipped to address social responsibilities, including job creation, skill development, and community engagement. Furthermore, private ownership incentivizes environmental sustainability, as companies prioritize resource efficiency and adopt green technologies to enhance competitiveness and mitigate risks.

However, the privatization of SOEs must be approached with caution, considering potential risks and challenges. Key considerations include safeguarding national interests, ensuring fair competition, and protecting the rights of workers and consumers. A transparent and well-regulated privatization process is essential to mitigate risks of corruption, asset stripping, and monopolistic practices.

Additionally, policymakers must assess the strategic importance of each SOE and prioritize sectors where privatization can yield the greatest benefits. Strategic planning and stakeholder consultation are crucial to ensure alignment with national development goals and public interests.

Furthermore, the Pakistan government should implement supportive policies and regulatory frameworks to facilitate privatization and attract foreign investment. Measures such as tax incentives, regulatory reforms, and dispute resolution mechanisms can enhance investor confidence and create an enabling environment for privatization initiatives.

Offloading state-owned enterprises to prospective foreign investors presents a compelling opportunity for Pakistan to unlock economic potential and drive sustainable development. Privatization offers a path towards efficiency, innovation, and competitiveness, positioning privatized enterprises for success in the global market. However, careful planning, transparency, and stakeholder engagement are essential to navigate the complexities of privatization and ensure its success. With strategic vision and bold action, Pakistan can harness the transformative power of privatization to build a more resilient and prosperous economy for the future.

Exploring foreign partnerships for resource exploration:

Pakistan's vast natural and mineral resources hold immense potential for economic growth and development. However, realizing this potential requires strategic partnerships and investment in exploration and extraction. By negotiating contracts with foreign companies, Pakistan can leverage their expertise and capital to unlock the value of its resources, fostering economic prosperity and sustainable development.

Pakistan boasts a diverse range of natural and mineral resources, including oil, gas, coal, minerals, and renewable energy sources. Despite this abundance, the full extent of these resources remains largely untapped due to limited investment in exploration and extraction infrastructure. By engaging with foreign companies, Pakistan can accelerate the development of its resource sector, creating employment opportunities, generating revenue, and stimulating economic growth.

Negotiating contracts with foreign companies offers several advantages for Pakistan. Firstly, foreign companies bring technical expertise, advanced technologies, and best practices in resource exploration and extraction. Their experience and know-how can enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of operations, reducing exploration risks and increasing the likelihood of discovery.

Secondly, partnering with foreign companies attracts much-needed investment capital, mitigating the financial burden on the Pakistani government and taxpayers. Foreign investment not only funds exploration activities but also supports infrastructure development, including transportation, power, and water facilities, necessary for resource extraction.

Thirdly, collaboration with foreign companies enhances transparency, accountability, and governance in the resource sector. International standards and practices ensure adherence to environmental regulations, safety protocols, and fair labor practices, protecting the interests of local communities and stakeholders.

Moreover, negotiating contracts with foreign companies facilitates knowledge transfer and capacity building, empowering local professionals and fostering the growth of domestic industries. Through skills development programs, technology transfers, and joint ventures, Pakistan can build a sustainable ecosystem for resource development, creating a legacy of prosperity for future generations.

However, successful negotiation of resource contracts requires careful consideration of various factors, including legal frameworks, fiscal terms, environmental regulations, and social impact assessments. Transparent and competitive bidding processes, accompanied by robust regulatory oversight, are essential to ensure fair and equitable agreements that maximize benefits for Pakistan and its people.

Furthermore, effective stakeholder engagement is critical to address concerns and grievances of local communities, indigenous groups, and environmental activists. Consultation, dialogue, and collaboration with stakeholders foster trust, build consensus, and promote social license to operate, essential for the long-term sustainability of resource projects.

Restoring Pakistan's global image:

In Pakistan's quest for economic revival, one fundamental imperative stands above all: repairing the country's global image. The perception of a nation among the international community significantly influences foreign investment decisions. As such, urgent measures to enhance Pakistan's reputation are indispensable for attracting the capital necessary for sustainable growth and development.

Pakistan's global image has suffered from various challenges, including security concerns, political instability, and governance issues. Persistent negative perceptions deter foreign investors, undermining confidence in the country's economic potential and deterring capital inflows. To reverse this trend, policymakers must prioritize initiatives aimed at enhancing Pakistan's reputation and fostering a conducive investment climate.

Central to repairing Pakistan's global image is addressing security perceptions. While significant strides have been made in improving security in recent years, persistent threats of terrorism and instability continue to overshadow the country's progress. Policymakers must implement robust security measures, enhance law enforcement capabilities, and strengthen intelligence cooperation to reassure investors of Pakistan's commitment to ensuring safety and stability.

In parallel, efforts to improve governance, transparency, and the rule of law are essential for enhancing Pakistan's credibility and attractiveness to foreign investors. Streamlining bureaucratic processes, combating corruption, and ensuring judicial independence signal a commitment to fostering a business-friendly environment conducive to investment and economic growth.

Moreover, effective communication and branding strategies are critical in shaping perceptions of Pakistan on the global stage. Policymakers must proactively engage with international media, investors, and opinion leaders to highlight the country's strengths, achievements, and investment opportunities. Leveraging digital platforms and diplomatic channels can amplify positive narratives about Pakistan, counteracting negative stereotypes and misconceptions.

Furthermore, fostering people-to-people connections and cultural exchanges can build bridges of understanding and trust between Pakistan and the international community. Educational exchanges, cultural festivals, and tourism initiatives showcase Pakistan's rich heritage, diversity, and hospitality, challenging stereotypes and fostering goodwill abroad.

Collaboration with reputable international organizations and multilateral institutions can also enhance Pakistan's credibility and standing in the global arena. Participating in forums, conferences, and summits enables Pakistan to showcase its commitment to international cooperation, development, and peace, reinforcing its image as a responsible global citizen.

Additionally, proactive engagement with the Pakistani diaspora can leverage their expertise, networks, and resources to promote investment and development initiatives in the homeland. Diaspora engagement programs, investment incentives, and business facilitation services can mobilize diaspora capital and expertise for the benefit of Pakistan's economy.

Pakistani policymakers need to understand, repairing a country's global image is imperative for attracting foreign investment and unlocking the country's economic potential. By addressing security concerns, improving governance, enhancing communication strategies, and fostering international cooperation, policymakers can rebuild trust and confidence in Pakistan's prospects for growth and prosperity. As Pakistan navigates the path towards economic revival, nurturing a positive global image is not merely an option but a strategic imperative for success in the interconnected world of the 21st century.

Unity beyond political differences in Pakistan:

As Pakistan grapples with a looming economic crisis, the urgency for concerted action has never been more pronounced. The nation stands at a critical juncture, where partisan divides must be set aside in favor of collective efforts to address the pressing economic challenges. Political parties must recognize the gravity of the situation and prioritize the national interest over individual agendas, working together to chart a path towards economic stability and prosperity.

For too long, political differences have hindered progress and impeded effective governance in Pakistan. The adversarial nature of politics has often overshadowed the needs of the people, exacerbating economic woes and eroding public trust in the political system. In times of crisis, however, the nation cannot afford the luxury of discord. Instead, unity and collaboration are imperative for overcoming adversity and steering the country towards a brighter future.

The economic challenges facing Pakistan are multifaceted, encompassing issues such as inflation, unemployment, fiscal deficits, and external debt burdens. Addressing these complex issues requires a comprehensive and coordinated approach, transcending partisan lines and harnessing the collective wisdom and resources of all stakeholders.

Political parties must demonstrate leadership and statesmanship by putting aside short-term political gains and embracing long-term solutions for the greater good. This entails engaging in constructive dialogue, compromise, and consensus-building to forge a common vision and roadmap for economic recovery.

Key areas of focus for bipartisan cooperation include fiscal reforms, investment promotion, job creation, and social welfare initiatives. By working together, political parties can devise innovative policy measures, enact necessary legislative reforms, and mobilize public and private resources to stimulate economic growth and alleviate hardship.

Moreover, political parties must collaborate with relevant stakeholders, including business leaders, economists, civil society organizations, and international partners, to leverage expertise and mobilize support for economic revitalization efforts. Transparent and inclusive decision-making processes foster trust and ownership among all segments of society, ensuring broad-based participation in the nation's economic renewal.

It is essential to recognize that achieving economic stability requires sacrifices and compromises from all quarters. Political parties must demonstrate maturity and resilience in navigating the complexities of governance, prioritizing the common good over partisan interests, and upholding democratic principles and institutions.

Furthermore, fostering a culture of accountability and transparency is paramount to rebuild public trust and confidence in governance. Political parties must lead by example, adhering to ethical standards, and holding themselves accountable for their actions and decisions.

The economic crisis facing Pakistan demands unity, resolve, and decisive action from all political parties. By transcending differences and embracing cooperation, political leaders can harness the collective strength and ingenuity of the nation to overcome challenges and build a prosperous future for all Pakistanis. Now is the time for political parties to rise above partisan divides and demonstrate their commitment to the welfare and prosperity of the nation.

As Pakistan stands at a crossroads, the choice is clear: succumb to division and despair or rise united, determined to overcome challenges and build a brighter future. The path ahead is fraught with obstacles, but through unity and resolve, Pakistan can emerge stronger and more prosperous than ever before.

National unity is not merely an abstract concept but a pragmatic necessity for Pakistan's survival and resurgence. It is the key to unlocking the nation's true potential and charting a course towards sustainable development and prosperity. Now is the time for Pakistanis to set aside differences, forge a common purpose, and embark on a collective journey towards a better tomorrow.

M A Hossain, political and defense analyst based in Bangladesh. He can be reached at: writetomahossain@gmail.com

This article published at :

1. Intel drop.org, USA : 24 Mar'24

2. In-depth news.org, NG: 30 Mar'24

3. South Asia Journal, NJ, USA : 30 Mar'24

Chad’s Political Turmoil Sends Ripples Across The Globe.

M A Hossain, 

Situated amidst the vast expanse of the Sahel, a sprawling geographical region spanning over 4,000 miles along the southern perimeters of the Sahara Desert, Chad serves as a vivid portrayal of the nuanced interplay between internal dynamics and external pressures in the area. Recent events have thrust this landlocked nation into the global spotlight, illuminating the intricate balance between internal strife and external forces that define the Sahelian landscape. This heightened visibility underscores the complex web of challenges faced by Chad, highlighting the delicate equilibrium between domestic complexities and external influences that shape the region’s geopolitical landscape.

For decades, Chad has been hailed as a bastion of stability amidst the tumultuous landscape of the Sahel. However, the nation now stands at a critical juncture, wrestling with the reverberations of political violence that erupted within its capital, N’Djamena. This recent escalation serves as a poignant reminder of the precarious intersection between internal challenges and broader regional dynamics, casting a shadow of uncertainty over the nation’s future. As Chad grapples with these unsettling developments, the spectre of insecurity looms ominously, underscoring the fragility of its hard-won stability in the face of mounting pressures.

The roots of Chad’s current turmoil run deep, woven from a complex tapestry of sociopolitical unrest, economic desperation, and the contagion of military coups that have swept across the Sahel in recent years. Following the demise of President Idriss Deby Itno in April 2021, power passed to his son, Mahamat Deby, who assumed leadership of an interim Transitional Military Council (TMC). However, unlike his father’s authoritative rule, Mahamat Deby has struggled to consolidate his grip on power amidst mounting discontent from both military circles and the civilian populace.

In October 2022, a contentious choice to prolong the Transitional Military Council’s (TMC) authority, despite assurances of a prompt shift towards civilian governance, sparked violent demonstrations that exposed the longstanding grievances embedded within Chad’s socio-political framework. President Deby’s dogged quest for centralized power, mirroring the tactics of neighboring junta-led regimes, has deepened existing fault lines and stoked ethnic animosities, further destabilizing an already precarious environment. This decision not only shattered hopes for a smooth transition but also reignited simmering tensions, underscoring the fragility of Chad’s political landscape. As dissent festers and divisions deepen, the nation finds itself teetering on the brink of upheaval, grappling with the consequences of leadership decisions that have inflamed rather than assuaged societal tensions.

Recent developments have exacerbated Chad’s political turmoil, as even members of President Deby’s own family defect to the opposition, signalling fractures within the ruling Zaghawa ethnic group. The detention of Deby’s uncle and the targeted killings of opposition figures serve as stark reminders of the regime’s ruthless suppression of dissent, casting a foreboding shadow over the impending presidential elections scheduled for May and June.

Amidst this atmosphere of heightened tension, the specter of armed conflict looms ominously, particularly within the Zaghawa ethnic enclave, where government forces and opposition factions brace for potential confrontations. Adding to the complexity is the alleged involvement of external actors, including the notorious Wagner Group, whose presence further fuels fears of protracted violence and regional destabilization. The convergence of internal fissures, external influences, and simmering grievances presents a volatile cocktail that threatens to plunge Chad into deeper turmoil, with ramifications extending far beyond its borders.

As Chad grapples with internal turmoil, its delicate stability faces additional threats from external pressures, such as the withdrawal of French troops and a nationwide strike triggered by soaring fuel prices. This convergence of challenges risks creating a dangerous power vacuum and exacerbating the simmering discontent within the nation, with far-reaching consequences that extend across the Sahel region.

Yet, amidst the shadows of uncertainty, a glimmer of hope emerges- a recognition that lasting stability cannot be achieved through force alone, but through comprehensive governance reforms, economic empowerment, and regional collaboration. The crisis in Chad serves as a poignant reminder of the dangers inherent in prioritizing short-term security measures at the expense of long-term stability. It underscores the urgent need for a holistic approach that addresses root causes and embraces inclusive governance as the cornerstone of sustainable peace and prosperity in the region.

It is imperative for international stakeholders, notably Western powers, to reevaluate their involvement in the region by moving away from endorsing autocratic regimes and adopting a more equitable approach that champions human rights and democratic principles. Through strategic investments in governance reforms, economic development initiatives, and robust conflict resolution mechanisms, the global community can play a pivotal role in laying the groundwork for enduring peace and prosperity across the Sahel. This shift in strategy reflects a commitment to fostering inclusive governance structures and addressing the underlying socio-economic disparities that fuel instability, thereby promoting sustainable development and enhancing regional stability.

While the path forward for Chad remains precarious and shrouded in uncertainty, within the chaos lies a unique opportunity-an opportunity to chart a fresh course towards stability and security in the heart of Africa. By acknowledging the lessons learned from past challenges and embracing a vision of governance that is inclusive and cooperation that spans the region, Chad has the potential to emerge from its current crisis with newfound strength and resilience. Although the journey ahead may be fraught with obstacles, the destination- a Sahel characterized by peace, prosperity, and progress-is a goal worthy of the collective effort. It is through perseverance, unity, and a steadfast commitment to positive change that Chad can navigate through the crucible of crisis and emerge stronger than ever before, serving as a beacon of hope for the entire African continent.

M A Hossain, political and defense analyst based in Bangladesh.  He can be reached at: writetomahossain@gmail.com

This article published at :

1. Indian Defence Review, India: 05 Mar'24

2. Pakistan Today, Pak: 07 Mar'24

3. Weekly Blitz, BD : 04 Mar'24

4. Urdu24news, Pak : 07 Mar'24

 

Ukraine's Retreat From Avdiivka And Its Implications on Russia-Ukraine war.

M A Hossain, 

The fall of Avdiivka is the first major gain for Russian forces since May of last year. The recent decision by Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi to withdraw units from Avdiivka in the Donetsk region has changed the dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and bears a significant impact on the geopolitical landscape. 

Avdiivka is considered a strategic transportation hub for Russian forces since it captured the nearby city of Bakhmut in May of the previous year. The Ukrainian army's tactical redevelopment of defense from Avdiivka aimed to reduce the attrition of war. Gen. Syrskyi said in a statement, "Based on the operational situation around Avdiivka, in order to avoid encirclement and preserve the lives and health of servicemen, I decided to withdraw our units from the city and move to defense on more favorable lines."

According to the battle situation in Avdiivka, Russia enjoyed superiority in firepower and personnel over Ukraine. In addition, Russian forces were highly motivated to recapture Avdiivka, supported by heavy artillery bombardment, even though its fighters suffered a staggering number of casualties. There was a report that some Ukrainian servicemen fell into Russia's captivity.

However, the retreat from Avdiivka comes amidst challenges for Ukraine, including a shortage of ammunition supply. Moreover, the Biden administration is struggling to pass the foreign aid budget of US$60 billion in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives. The Pentagon spokesman, Patrick Ryder, stated a few months back that Washington would have to choose between its combat readiness and the provision of weapons to Ukraine due to a shortage of financial resources. Additionally, at a summit in Brussels last year, EU leaders failed to agree on a four-year plan of €60 billion for Ukraine. Definitely, this uncertainty in Western support has weakened Kyiv's confidence and lowered the morale of servicemen.

As the conflict exceeded its two-year mark, Western leaders have become a bit reluctant to provide long-term and unconditional support for Ukraine. Moreover, the Hamas-Israel conflict has distracted and deprioritized the Ukraine issue for Western leaders. After the month of April, the Biden administration will have to be more calculated regarding the Ukraine issue. Mainly, if Donald Trump or the Republican Party wins the upcoming 2024 US presidential election, it could lead to a significant change in the course of the Russia-Ukraine war. A Republican president would likely reduce assistance to Ukraine and engage in diplomatic talks to end the conflict.

In my previous article, "Zelenskyy's Fate Hangs in Delusion and Illusion," I predicted Russia's extensive offensive operations with the ambition to seize new territories, which would play a crucial role in shaping the narrative that could fuel Mr. Putin's election campaign. Consequentially, this new battlefield victory in Avdiivka will enhance Mr. Putin's popularity and legitimacy among the Russian people in the upcoming 2024 presidential election. No doubt, the Avdiivka issue will present Mr. Putin as a strong leader and defender of their national interests and sovereignty against foreign interference.

The Western media also provided meticulous analysis and expressed frustration regarding the loss of Avdiivka. CNN commented that the loss of Avdiivka is an undeniable blow to Ukraine. The New York Times described the chaotic situation of the Ukrainian army's retreat from Avdiivka. A military analyst, Mykola Bielieskov from the National Institute for Strategic Studies in Ukraine, said in an interview, "Taking control of Avdiivka is an opening for Russia because Avdiivka was a crucial strong point in the Ukrainian system of defense. It protected Pokrovsk, about 30 miles (48.28 kilometers) to the Northwest, a logistical hub for the Ukrainian army."

From a military perspective, there are some tactical advantages and disadvantages of Avdiivka for Russian forces. Firstly, Avdiivka will serve as a gateway to Donetsk for Russia, acting as terrain for launching offensive operations to capture Donetsk. It also holds strategic importance for any commander to utilize as a communication and logistic hub. There is a Coke Plant in Avdiivka that will facilitate electricity supply to the Russian force. Air superiority in Avdiivka would facilitate operations for the Russian ground force. 

However, there are also challenges for the Russian force. Holding Avdiivka requires more troops due to its fortified build-up area. Mechanized infantry would face challenges due to large concrete fortifications and infrastructure. According to the intel report, Russia has very limited reserves in this region, hindering any further counteroffensive against Ukraine.

Putin stated in the interview with Carlson that Russia will not attack Poland or the three Baltic countries. If Russia maintains such strong combat capabilities and domestic stability, then it is obvious that internal pressure would be created from Ukraine to change the leadership. And, of course, from a military standpoint, the victory is now tilted towards Russia, making it a daydream for the Ukrainian force to launch another counteroffensive when logistic aid is waning.

The Ukrainian side claims that Russian forces enjoyed ten times more artillery firepower in Avdiivka. Following the Avdiivka attack, Russia is now in the driver's seat to determine regional stability and its geopolitical implications. Thus far, Russia has not initiated a nationwide war mobilization, a decisive factor for the winning side. Currently, the optimum course of action for the West could be taken by strengthening the Ukrainian military-industrial complex and providing training facilities for Ukrainian forces. Until the presidential election concludes in the USA, maintaining the 'status quo' is the most favorable scenario for both countries. Undoubtedly, Mr. Putin will be in a cheerful mood, regardless of future developments.

M A Hossain, political and defense analyst based in Bangladesh.  He can be reached at: writetomahossain@gmail.com

This article published at :

1. Pakistan Today, Pak : 29 Feb'24

2. Daily Observer, BD : 29 Feb'24

3. Indian Defence Review, India: 01 Mar'24

4. Daily Lead Pakistan, Pak : 02Mar'24

5. The Asian Age, BD: 03 Mar'24

6. VT Foreign Policy, USA : 02 Mar'24

Is There A Significant Shift In Bangladesh-US Relations?

M. A. Hossain,

A dramatic shift in the United States' stance is being observed after the January 7 general election in Bangladesh. The Biden administration consistently stressed the commencement of a free, fair, and participatory election throughout the electoral process. Since then, the dynamics of bilateral relations have gone through ups and downs.

Recently, US President Joe Biden penned a letter to Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, expressing to move forward with common interests in this region. Although the Biden administration explicitly acknowledges its dissatisfaction regarding the last parliament election, nevertheless, it is Sheikh Hasina who has formed a government after the last parliamentary election with an absolute majority, securing her fourth consecutive term. The content of this letter hints at a promising 'new chapter' in bilateral relations.

For the past six months, neither a delegation from Dhaka nor Washington has visited the other country for talks, as there was an understanding that visits during election time would not be appropriate. However, a delegation led by US State Department Deputy Assistant Secretary Afreen Akhter is now scheduled to arrive in Dhaka on February,8.

The team aims to engage with the Director General of the North America Wing of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, with further bilateral discussions potentially involving the foreign secretary and various other meetings. Prior to the election, the United States had expressed concerns about civil rights, freedom of expression in Bangladesh, even going as far as concluding in a post-election statement that the voting process had not been entirely free and fair.

Prof. Shahidul Haque, former foreign secretary, and Bangabandhu chair at Delhi University, believes that diplomatic behavior evolves with time and circumstances, urging for a nuanced perspective. "Each country has different priorities at different times… I think we should think of it from that point of view," he remarked.

The letter initiates with a mutual focus on regional and global security concerns, but after all, it is a matter of great significance in Biden's communication with Sheikh Hasina. Bangladesh historically emphasizes an economic pact, but the letter highlights collaboration between Bangladesh and the US in various areas, including regional and global security, addressing the Rohingya crisis, and a mutual commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific. This collaboration extends to encompass economic development, climate change, and energy initiatives.

Bangladesh aspires to achieve its developed status by 2041 and has introduced various economic activities like construction of large infrastructures, radical changes in the education system. The magnitude of these endeavors necessitates not only financial support but also technical expertise, technology transfer, and educational assistance. The United States is considered a potential contributor in those areas beyond just financing.

Contrastingly, the United States, boasting a $27 trillion economy, views bilateral trade with Bangladesh, standing at approximately $10 billion, as noteworthy but not necessarily pivotal compared to other geopolitical considerations. While bilateral trade holds importance for Bangladesh, it's perceived differently by the US. The $10 billion trade volume is considered less significant in the broader context, leading to a shift in focus towards evaluating Bangladesh through a comprehensive security perspective, encompassing both core and non-core aspects.

The United States wants to keep the South Asian region stable, defying over-dependence of any nation towards China. Bangladesh, for its significant geostrategic position, is being lured by the USA to align Dhaka with Washington’s initiative for a free and open Indo-Pacific strategy. The US eyes fostering collaboration on various fronts, especially security measures.

Dhaka and Washington prioritize its security cooperation on training, information sharing, peacekeeping efforts, maritime security, and the fight against terrorism and extremism. Recent developments include the provision of state-of-the-art drones by the US to Bangladesh. Additionally, both countries collaborate on issues such as climate change, food security, and energy security.

At present, preserving regional stability is paramount. Instability in Bangladesh could have significant consequences for the entire South Asian region. Presently, the region is grappling with a critical situation. Political influence and military conflict are in this region's discourse. So, safeguarding the stability of the region is imperative and should not be compromised.

While unease preceding the election might gradually dissipate in Dhaka-Washington relations, lingering effects could surface, particularly concerning labor rights, with potential ramifications in international forums such as Brussels and Geneva.

The delicate balance between different superpowers is now more consequential than ever. For Bangladesh, it becomes exceptionally challenging to support any side fully, risking diplomatic catastrophe. Striking a balance with all global powers and maintaining its foreign policy, historic relationships, and reality becomes more imperative. Dhaka must pursue policies that align with its national interests.

In conclusion, the opening of a new chapter in bilateral relations between Bangladesh and America must lead to mutual collaboration and cooperation. This relationship will align their priorities, strengthening common objectives such as security, economic development, and regional stability. Both nations would benefit from a strengthened partnership addressing mutual concerns that have a significant impact on the global stage.

M A Hossain, political and defense analyst based in Bangladesh.  He can be reached at: writetomahossain@gmail.com

This article published at :

1. Daily Observer, BD: 25 Feb'24

2. South Asia Journal, NJ, USA: 25Feb'24

3. The Asian Age, BD : 27 Feb'24

4. The Arabian Post, UAE : 27 Feb'24

5. South Asia Monitor, India: 01 Mar'24

6. Highland Post, India: 29 Feb'24

7. VT Foreign Policy, USA : 03 Mar'24

Blinken's Cacophony and Another Clarion Call For Disrupting World Order.

M A Hossain, 

During a public forum at the Munich Security Conference in Germany, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken remarked, "If you are not at the table in the international system, you're going to be on the menu." He also emphasized, "It is important for us to re-engage multilaterally, and we have done that."  Almost two decades ago, the world grappled with similar rhetoric from the then-President, George W. Bush: "Every nation in every region now has a decision to make—either you are with us or you are with the terrorists." The aftermath of Bush's declaration witnessed a systematic destabilization by the West. The US-backed 'War on Terror' failed to bring peace and destabilized previously peaceful countries. In the name of the 'war on terror', the US military-industrial complex and technology giants have made huge profits through contracts with the US military and other government agencies.  Michael Moore's documentary, "Fahrenheit 9/11," uncovers the heartbreaking truths behind such taunts from the United States.

 Blinken's rhetoric coincides with a period where Biden's global influence is dimming. Notably, Biden's Ukraine venture turned into a complete mess. The Hamas-Israel conflict somewhat serves as a distraction from the Ukraine debacle. However, global leaders are increasingly skeptical of the Biden administration's reliance. The attempt to open a new front in Yemen appears to mask their struggles in Israel. Biden's failure to exert control over ally Netanyahu and navigate relations with Arab nations has contributed to the skepticism. Additionally, Global South nations are becoming hesitant regarding US demands, highlighting the missteps of the Biden administration in shaping global geopolitics.

The "War on Terror," declared by President George W. Bush in 2001, exacerbated divisions globally. This conflict exposed a crusade mentality with Islamophobia and xenophobia, aligning with Samuel P. Huntington's concept in "Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order." The transformation of the war from counterterrorism to counterinsurgency and followed by nation-building missions in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya highlighted the inconsistencies of the West. When President Biden assumed his office, he said" the mission in Afghanistan was never supposed to be for nation-building". The statement clearly exposed his tendency to bring global conflicts, destabilizing regions and excluding rivals from the negotiation table.

Indeed, the historical record shows instances where Western leaders, including the false claims about Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction, demonstrated a pattern of deception. Similarly, the portrayal of the war in Afghanistan as successful contradicted the reality of the situation.

Blinken's rhetoric serves to highlight that the expenditure in US-led wars often functions as a means to channel money out of the tax bases of Western nations and their allies, ultimately benefiting defense contractors. This echoes President Dwight D. Eisenhower's caution about the influence of the military-industrial complex, emphasizing how the United States is influenced by its whims. The war on terror, with its questionable outcomes and financial implications, aligns with Eisenhower's concern about the complex's impact on the nation.

On the other hand, China, an economic superpower, has adopted the policy to promote multi-alignment among countries, described as 'balance diplomacy' and 'positive balancing.' Chinese foreign policies are designed in a way that appeals to countries in the Global South that feel increasingly alienated from the US-led rules-based international order. After the Saudi-Iran breakthrough, Beijing began to position itself as an impartial and trustworthy partner. China does not influence or interfere in other countries' domestic affairs and refrains from 'war-opportune economic' gains. However, since President George W. Bush launched the war on terror in September 2001, the top five US defense industry companies—Boeing, Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and General Dynamics—have earned $2.2 trillion from Afghanistan alone. 

Blinken's statement is considered a political misadventure for the Biden administration, which reflects a broader trend of declining US influence in today's multipolar world. Economically and militarily, the Global South is emerging as a leading power, and it is challenging the traditional hegemony of the West, particularly the United States. Moreover, Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi said in Munich Conference, " The world's second-largest economy cannot be sliced out of world trade."

The struggle that the United States has faced to garner support for the 'Yemen campaign' illustrates the diminishing ability of allies to rally. The lack of nations willing to engage in a war for US interests signals a shift in global dynamics. Even longstanding allies, such as Israel, appear less inclined to align with US requirements. This growing isolation has led to the US being exposed to accusations of engaging in dirty politics, contributing to its status as a pariah nation on the international stage.

M A Hossain, political and defense analyst based in Bangladesh. He can be reached at: writetomahossain@gmail.com

This article published at :

1. Modern Diplomacy, EU: 21 Feb'24

2. Policy Watcher: 20 Feb'24

3. Daily Times, Pak : 21 Feb'24

4. South Asia Monitor, India : 22 Feb'24

5. VT Foreign Policy, USA : 01 Mar'24

6. The Catch Line, Pak : 27 Feb'24

Trump's Next Presidency Promises a Significant Shift From The Past.

M A Hossain,

According to all recent polls, Donald Trump is projected to win by a landslide against Joe Biden or any of the Democratic Party candidates. Over the past four years, Biden has created a series of mess-ups both in the United States and worldwide due to his disastrous diplomacy—from Afghanistan to Ukraine and now Gaza. Moreover, Joe Biden has also been attempting to ignite another proxy war in Taiwan, thus pushing America into the rivalry against two powerful nations: Russia and China.

Meanwhile, political pundits in most nations worldwide have begun evaluating the potential consequences of Trump’s presidency or the fate of Biden’s decisions, including the war in Ukraine. Although Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, during the Munich Security Conference, vowed to continue the war indefinitely and sought financial and military assistance from the United States and European nations, everything may dramatically change after November 5, 2024 this year. Donald Trump is not in favor of giving billions of dollars to Ukraine to continue its war against Russia. Trump may also make almost similar decisions regarding Israel’s ongoing war against Gaza. Many analysts suggest that Trump’s next presidency might not be good news for Hamas or its patrons, including Qatar, as he may initiate some extremely tough measures in these cases.

Donald Trump’s next presidency may bring surprises to many nations worldwide, especially Iran, Ukraine, and Palestine. While he might succeed in pressuring Zelensky into reaching a peace deal with Russia, it is still too early to predict if Zelensky will be able to do so. He would face tremendous pressure from his generals and the top brass of the Neo-Nazi Azov Battalions. Unless he convinces them, it would not be surprising if Volodymyr Zelensky is ousted from power and forced to flee Ukraine. In that case, Ukraine may enter the second phase of war against Russia under the command of its military generals and the Azov Battalions. This could indeed become a real Herculean task for Trump. Similarly, Trump’s hardline approach towards Palestinians and any punitive measures against Hamas and Qatar may generate further complications once pro-Iran forces in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and other Middle Eastern nations begin direct war against Israel.

As Donald Trump’s victory on November 5,2024 is becoming almost imminent, there is debate on his public perception – which at least until now says – he is arrogant, slanderous, hot-headed and reckless. He also has been cruel - to a certain degree - to illegal immigrants, particularly Muslims. Most importantly, Donald Trump during the previous term had aborted the globalist formula and restricted the US from playing the role of the world cop – America First is his mantra. Trump had mainly focused on America’s domestic issues while he initiated construction of the wall to stop migrant floodgates from South American and other nations. This particular decision had received huge criticism from the Democrats and their loyal media. As a result, when Biden won the election in 2020, he almost opened the borders thus enabling hundreds and thousands of illegal migrants to enter the United States, which now has turned into one of the major headaches for America and Americans.

With all of these track records, one may ask, shall Donald Trump show even more aggressive attitude once he sits in the Oval Office?

According to my own assessment, during the past few years of his facing continuous assault from Biden, US establishment and intelligence agency's cruel persecution, possibly Trump now realizes, the key issues that he needs to take care are very much within his own country, while none of the foreign nations or races pose threat to America - neither China, nor Russia or even Muslims.

Donald Trump possibly now also understands, unless American politicians, particularly Washington swamps are stopped for good, the country shall ultimately push towards a civil war, where 450 million weapons would come out of households thus turning the US into far-worse chaotic than Libya or Iraq.

For the post-November 5, 2024 new  POTUS, the priority should be to address crises, problems, and potential threats within their own country rather than assuming the role of a global cop. Congress President Joe Biden has extended armed conflicts worldwide, aligning with a faction of warmongers whose economic interests converge with him, and it costs lives and diminishes respect for American society. President Biden initiated controversial agendas beginning with Ukraine and concluding with Yemen, facing complete debacles everywhere and opening new war fronts as a fig leaf to conceal his failures.

Both the Republican and Democratic parties in America are suffering from a leadership vacuum. Both parties face the oldest leadership in American history. This is very harmful in the American political context. As a number one superpower, the leader must have strong physical and mental appearance. Moreover, there is a wide gap in public opinion and popularity between Donald Trump and his closest rival, Nikki Haley, in the Republican Party. Similarly, there is no immediate successor to Joe Biden in Congress.

The national intelligence agencies have exhibited unprecedented political bias in American history under the last two presidents. This biased state of affairs in organizations has led to a gradual decline in America's influence worldwide. The nation is slipping away from its once-held position as the number one superpower. When state institutions display favoritism towards a political party, the governance system of that country tends to weaken, ultimately leading to collapse. Both Trump and Biden have employed similar tactics to target each other, which exhibited the erosion of democratic morality in the American political landscape.

In the context of the Russia-Ukraine war, Trump has pledged to resolve the conflict within 24 hours and would encourage Zelensky to implement the US-proposed deal. Trump's foreign policy stance is clear that he would prioritize from a globalist to a nationalist approach. Conversely, Biden is accused of destabilizing the Balkans and Europe, hindering their path to prosperity. This is considered one of Donald Trump's significant manifesto – maintaining peace globally. Indeed, Donald Trump stands out as the only president who actively avoided seeking war in any region. His commitment to maintaining peace and reluctance to engage in conflicts set him apart from his predecessors, making him a unique figure in recent political history. Trump aims to sustain this approach, although he has shown favoritism towards Israel in the past, and this is expected to continue. He plans to exert pressure on Iran, keeping its proxy forces occupied through third parties. It wouldn't be surprising if Trump opts for a more robust stance against Iran.

Trump's presidency has been successful in certain areas, as evidenced by the initiatives he set in motion, many of which the Biden administration has continued without minimal alterations. Notably, Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal, and the Biden administration, despite promises, has made no progress on that deal. The new trade war strategy of Trump against China, has persisted under the Biden administration. Trump's one-sided policy for favoring Israel remains unchanged during Biden's tenure.  And the Biden administration could not bring any paradigm shift towards peace talks. Additionally, Trump's strict stance on illegal immigrants and political asylum seekers is a focal point in his election campaign.

M A Hossain, a political and defense analyst based in Bangladesh.  He can be reached at: writetomahossain@gmail.com

This article published at :

1. Indian Defence Review, 20 Feb'24

2. Weekly Blitz, BD: 16 Feb'24

3. The Eastern Herald, India : 16 Feb'24

4. VT Foreign Policy, USA : 01Mar'24

 

 

Bangladesh's resilience against American pressure tactics. .

M A Hossain, 

In recent years, Bangladesh has found itself in the crosshairs of American political maneuvering, as Washington employs various tactics to assert its influence over the South Asian nation. From visa restrictions to sanctions, the United States has attempted to strong-arm Bangladesh into compliance, seemingly oblivious to the historical context and the resilient spirit of its people. Such actions are result of continuous attempts and lobbying efforts of Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and its ally Muhammad Yunus.

The roots of this strained relationship trace back to Bangladesh’s struggle for independence in 1971, when then-President Richard Nixon and his Secretary of State, Henry Kissinger, attempted to thwart the nation’s bid for independence and sovereignty. Despite their efforts, Bangladesh emerged triumphant, shaking off the shackles of oppression and asserting its rightful place on the world stage.

However, the scars of that tumultuous period still linger, as evidenced by Washington’s imposition of sanctions on Bangladesh in 1974. Allegations of jute exports to Cuba served as a pretext for punitive measures, leading to a devastating famine that claimed the lives of thousands. The culpability of Nixon and Kissinger in this tragedy cannot be overstated, as their vindictive actions resulted in untold suffering for the Bengali people.

In this case, they are missing two significant points. Firstly, back in 1971, during the war of independence of Bangladesh, then US President Richard Nixon – who had later been proved as a man of highest disgust and his Secretary of State Heinz Alfred Kissinger aka Henry Kissinger made frantic bids in sabotaging aspiration of liberation from the clutches of Islamabad. In the end, attempts of Nixon-Kissinger was bogged-down in the deep waters of Bay of Bengal and Bangladesh emerged as an independent and sovereign nation. Secondly, in 1974, Washington imposed sanctions of Bangladesh by bringing allegations of exporting jute to Cuba. This was America’s first sanctions on a newly-born country, which was responsible for 1974 famine. According to government’s estimation, over 27,000 people dies of this famine while unofficial sources put the figure at 1.5 million. This famine is considered one of the worst in 20th century. Meaning, Nixon and Kissinger were mainly responsible for the death of such a large number of people. In other words – by imposing sanctions on Bangladesh, American policymakers had committed crime against humanity. According to many analysts, through this sanctions, Nixon and Kissinger took revenge on Bengali people for not bowing-down to notorious desire of Washington and its attempts of foiling Bangladesh’s war of independence.

Fast forward to the present day, and Bangladesh once again finds itself in the crosshairs of American political machinations. The Biden administration, led by President Joe Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken, continues to exert pressure on Dhaka, seeking to undermine the democratically elected government of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

Behind the facade of promoting democracy, Washington’s true intentions become clear: to destabilize Bangladesh and install a regime more amenable to its interests. This nefarious agenda is aided by Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), accused of harboring connections with extremist elements, thereby posing a grave threat to the nation’s sovereignty and security.

It is indeed lamentable that some political leaders would align themselves with external forces bent on destabilizing their own country. The BNP’s collusion with Washington’s agenda undermines the democratic principles upon which Bangladesh was founded and jeopardizes the well-being of its citizens.

Moreover, the hypocrisy of American foreign policy is glaringly apparent when contrasted with its treatment of Pakistan. While Washington turns a blind eye to Pakistan’s descent into authoritarianism, it singles out Bangladesh for scrutiny under the guise of promoting democracy. This double standard exposes the true nature of American hegemony, which seeks to exploit weaker nations for its own gain.

In the face of such pressure tactics, Bangladesh must stand firm in defense of its sovereignty and democratic principles. The resilience and determination that fueled the nation’s struggle for independence in 1971 must guide its response to contemporary challenges, ensuring that Bangladesh remains a beacon of democracy and stability in a tumultuous world.

Ultimately, Bangladesh should not fear America’s scarecrow tactics, for the spirit of its people cannot be broken by external pressures. By remaining steadfast in the face of adversity, Bangladesh will continue to chart its own course, free from the interference of foreign powers bent on manipulation and control.

M A Hossain, political and defense analyst based in Bangladesh. He can reached at: writetomahossain@gmail.com 

This article published at :

1. The Daily Observer, BD: 15 Feb 24

2. Weekly Blitz, BD:11 Feb 24

3. The Asian Age, BD: 16 Feb'24

4. The CatchLine, Pak: 18 Feb'24