M. A. Hossain,
Niger, a landlocked nation in West Africa, has extended the 'coup belt' across the African continent after experiencing a coup d'état that ousted the democratically elected president. Now, this 'coup belt' stands as the world's longest corridor of military rule, spanning a swathe of six countries over 3500 miles (5,632.7 km). This coup is marked as the ninth event attempting a power grab in Western and Central Africa since 2020. While the coup in Niger has drawn criticism from both Russia and Western powers, it has also ignited a larger proxy war unfolding in West Africa. Some regional leaders have issued threats of military intervention against the junta, while certain military dictators are already planning to form a 'military alliance' to defend Niger's military regime. This underscores the stark division between nations aligned with Russia and those closely cooperating with the United States and Western allies. Thus, the nation's struggle unveils both internal challenges and external influences that shed light on the intricate geopolitical dynamics at play in the region.
Western nations have historically been the dominant actors in West Africa, offering economic assistance, military aid, diplomatic backing, and cultural influence. Countries like the United States, France, the United Kingdom, Germany, and other European nations have established partnerships with West African countries to promote democracy, human rights, good governance, integration, and peacekeeping. These nations sometimes intervened militarily against groups like Boko Haram, Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb(AQIM, and Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP). However, in recent years, Western influence has been challenged by the rise of Russia. Russia has adopted a multifaceted approach to engage with West African countries, involving political, economic, military, and cultural dimensions. Politically, Russia has sought to present itself as an alternative to the West, supporting sovereignty and non-interference in domestic affairs. It has also used its veto power at the UNSC for its African allies and has hosted several Summits and Forums with African leaders to enhance its diplomatic presence. Economically, Russia boosts trade and investment, particularly in energy and mining. Militarily, Russia provides security assistance to some West African nations with advisors, trainers, instructors, and mercenaries. Culturally, Russia expands its soft power by promoting its language, education, media, religion, and sports.
Niger's political upheaval is rooted in internal issues that have been developing over time. Once a French Colony until 1960, Niger has relied on France and the USA for its stability, security and to combat religious extremism. But, the backdrop of Western's failures to combat the spread of jihadist terrorism in the Sahel led to a pro-Russian movement. Despite accusations against Wagner (a Russian mercenary), many Nigerien admire Mr. Putin, who is seen as a strong man opposing the negative values of the Western attitudes towards homosexuality, irreligion, and Islamophobia. The ousted President Mohamed Bazoum was a close ally of Western nations and had been at a crossroads of anti-Western agitation. Ethnicity and legitimacy debates arose in his 2021 election campaign due to his Arab minority origin. He has always been labeled as foreign origin, causing tension with larger ethnic groups composing the military. The presence of foreign military forces and bases stirred discontent among the military and citizens. The failure of regional organizations such as the Economic Community Of Western African States (ECOWAS) and the African Union(AU) to take a firm stance on coups in neighboring countries spread a "contagion effect" to Niger.
Niger is one of the largest countries in the Sahel and has played a vital role in the Pentagon’s regional strategy in the fight against Sahel and Sahara jihadists. At least, 1100 American troops are stationed in the country and the US military has built a drone base in Niamey. The US and its allies are instigating Nigeria and ECOWAS to attack Niger in pursuit of their interest. But, other fellow putschists in Guinea, Burkina Faso, and Mali have warned against the use of force and pledged their solidarity with the junta in Niger. The EU has solely dependent on Niger to stop African migrants from crossing the border into Libya. Meanwhile, Russia strategically strengthens its position by developing military equipment, infrastructures, and anti-West sentiments. Russian President Vladimir Putin has proposed to liberate African countries from "colonialism and neocolonialism" at the recent Africa summit in St. Petersburg. Not only that, the sight of Russian flags being waved by coup supporters in Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali also symbolizes its growing influence in a swathe of Africa. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, where Ukraine is acting as a proxy for the West. Moscow has vowed its all-out support for Niger's military regime. Hence, Niger is potentially becoming a theater for the West-East power display.
Numerous global players vie for stability in Niger and the broader Sahel region. The competition among France, the USA, the EU, Russia, and China for influence and mineral resources adds another dimension to the political landscape in Niger. These powers scramble to secure access to Niger's vast mineral resources, such as uranium, oil, gas, and gold. This interest could exacerbate existing tensions and provide the ruling elite with additional leverage.
The recent development in Niger has exposed the fragility of both ECOWAS and AU for all to see. A division is evident, with the AU granting a 15-day ultimatum to the coup leaders, while ECOWAS allows only 7 days to restore constitutional order in the country. If these regional bodies fail to address the crisis comprehensively or resort to militarized responses only, then the regional stability, security, and humanitarian situation will deteriorate. Niger could experience an influx of internally displaced people or migration to neighboring countries. Jihadist organizations would also bolster their influence in the region.
As this situation unfolds, the international community will closely monitor the developments and their impact on regional stability and security. Managing the escalating tensions and rivalries in West Africa will demand delicate diplomacy and concerted efforts to tackle the root causes of instability. Resolving Niger's political crisis will require addressing not only domestic concerns, but also skillfully navigating the intricate geopolitical dynamics of the region.
M A Hossain, political and defense analyst based in Bangladesh.
Email: writetomahossain@gmail.com
This article published at:
1. The Asian Age:BD:21Aug23
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