Thursday, 24 May 2018

What options North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has now?

M A Hossain

European Union (EU) has launched a stinging attack on President Donald Trump slamming his 'capricious assertiveness' and saying the US President acted 'more like an enemy than a friend'. EU President Donald Tusk has urged the leaders to form a 'United European Front'(UEF) against Trump's withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear deal and his move to impose trade tariffs on Europe.

Donald Tusk further said,"But frankly speaking, Europe should be grateful to President Trump, because thanks to him we have got rid of all illusions. He has made us realize that if you need a helping hand you will find one at the end of your [own] arm".

From the latest move of EU, it seems that Donald Tusk and his colleagues are trying to somehow weaken the US President by disagreeing with Trump's decision on Iran. But in my personal opinion, European Union can not do anything against world's only Superpower. Their initiatives of forming United European Front would simply demise silently.

Following the victory of Brexit and the ongoing process of Britain's leaving EU, there already are similar voices in other EU nations of leaving the Union. Technically, when the result of Brexit referendum were announced - European Union had already died.

After Donald Trump's decision of leaving the nuclear deal with Iran, Russia has become over enthusiastic in deepening relations with Iran. Russia-led trade bloc are already seeking free trade area with Iran. Meaning, on Iran affairs, most possibly the European Union are going to join hands of cooperation with President Vladimir Putin. Especially Britain, France and Germany are going to be Russia's allies in the anti-US move. May be this would even ease the bitter relations between Moscow and the European Union Capitals and London, which was created following the nerve agent attack on the Skripals.  

After the Iran debacle, President Donald Trump most possibly is going to face another challenge in the Korean Peninsula. While a summit between Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un is scheduled to take place at Singapore in June, there already are indications of disagreements between North Korea and the US. In a statement, the US President said,"The Libyan model was a much different model. We decimated that country. We never said to Gaddafi, Oh, we are going to give you protection. We went in and decimated him, and we did the same thing with Iraq [Saddam Hussein]. That model would take place if we don't make a deal".

On the benefits of denuclearization, President Trump said,"A deal will make Kim[Kim Jong Un] very strong. He would be there[in power], he would be running the country, his country [North Korea] would be very rich".

From the statements and sentiment of the Trump administration, it is evidently clear that Kim Jong Un is going to face a very difficult time if he doesn't listen to Washington's dictation. But, in my opinion, Pyongyang long-time ally Beijing may not let their old friend Kim Jong Un be defeated by the US-South Korea hostility. Because, Chinese policymakers know, fall of socialism in North Korea and Kim Jong Un having the 'similar fate of Gaddafi' may actually pave the highway for the US in ultimately starting another long-term game plan of destabilizing communist rule in China.

Those who are considering Kim Jong Un as a fool like or coward like Mikhail Gorbachev are certainly wrong. In my personal opinion, any tactic of threatening would be counter productive in case of Korean crisis. The words uttered by President Trump and his administration on Kim Jong Un are certainly humiliating to the North Korean leader. All the stakeholders must number, Kim Jong Un can not be cowed-down like Gaddafi. The only problem, again in my opinion, the North Korean leader is facing his inability of countering the global media offensives. Pyongyang, save its state-owned news agency, does not have any ally in the global media, which could play an important role at this junction in favour of Kim Jong Un. While Pyongyang has spent billions of dollars in its nuclear program, it has miserably failed in creating a strong media base outside the country by spending few million dollars. Hopefully from the current realities, Kim Jong Un will realize this crucial issue.

Onwards, North Korea needs to join hands with several international media thus creating a strong platform of telling the world - North Korea or Kim Jong Un are no weak entities who would be just blown-out like a candle light. North Korea must exhibit its guts this time- whether the deal turns successful or failed. Kim Jong Un needs to urgently create a strong media base similarly as he has successfully done in the case of developing nuclear technology. He needs to remember - a nation without media strength is certainly helpless and even isolated in the age of advance technology.

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