M A Hossain,
Border disputes in Southeast Asia rarely stay local. They resurface time and again, not only due to unresolved cartographic legacies but because they are tightly woven with questions of identity, nationalism, and sovereignty. The renewed violence between Thailand and Cambodia, which reignited on July 24, 2025, near the ancient Prasat Ta Muen Thom temple, is proving to be more than just another flare-up. It’s a troubling sign that unresolved historical grievances, when coupled with regional fragmentation and international opportunism, can create a dangerous geopolitical tinderbox.
The current escalation began with a landmine explosion in the Dangrek Mountains, injuring several Thai soldiers patrolling an area marked by both countries as a “temporary demarcation line.” Thailand swiftly installed barbed wire, prompting a fiery denunciation from Phnom Penh. When a Cambodian forward outpost was struck by artillery—Bangkok claimed it was a misfire—Phnom Penh responded by launching BM-21 rocket attacks on Thai villages. The border clashes have already claimed over 30 lives—a grim figure that underscores the deadly consequences of nationalist brinkmanship. The conflict also displaced over 138,000 people in Thailand and more than 35,000 in Cambodia,
What makes this round of fighting particularly alarming is the deployment of Thailand’s F-16 fighter jets against Cambodian radar installations—an escalation not seen even during the 2011 Preah Vihear clashes. In return, Cambodia allegedly activated Chinese-supplied surface-to-air batteries near Anlong Veng, signaling a dangerous slide toward regional militarization with potentially global consequences.
Past Grievances, Present Dangers
This latest confrontation is not an isolated event. Skirmishes along the Thai-Cambodian border have increased since May 2025, when diplomatic talks over border demarcation stalled yet again. Both countries continue to cling to competing narratives about ancient temples as emblems of national identity. For Cambodia, Prasat Ta Muen Thom and similar sites represent the grandeur of the Khmer Empire. For Thailand, they are relics of a cultural sphere once shaped by Thai influence. These symbolic stakes compromise politically toxic in both capitals.
Efforts to resolve the issue through the International Court of Justice (ICJ) have yielded little progress. Even prior rulings, such as the ICJ's 2013 clarification of the Preah Vihear verdict, have done little to change nationalist attitudes on the ground. Instead, historical grievances are being cynically repurposed into nationalist fuel—tools of manipulation for leaders grappling with fragile mandates.
The Regional Landscape
What distinguishes 2025 from 2011 is the increasingly fragmented state of ASEAN. Internal divisions—over Myanmar’s civil war, South China Sea disputes, and competing great-power influences—have left the bloc adrift. While ASEAN’s Treaty of Amity and Cooperation and Regional Forum remain in place, they lack teeth without collective political will. Interestingly, Malaysia, traditionally reticent in such conflicts, has quietly stepped in. Foreign Minister Mohamad Faizal Ibrahim offered to host backchannel talks between Thai and Cambodian military officials in Putrajaya, citing Malaysia’s neutral stance and deepening trade relations with both countries.
However, Malaysia officially confirmed the ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim announced that the two countries agreed to an immediate and unconditional ceasefire effective from midnight on July 28, 2025, following mediation talks held in Malaysia. Anwar described this agreement as a vital first step toward restoring peace and security between the neighbors. Both Thai and Cambodian leaders met in Putrajaya, Malaysia, to negotiate the ceasefire, with representatives from the United States and China also attending. Kuala Lumpur’s role underscores a growing realization that ASEAN’s survival may depend on proactive middle-power diplomacy.
Trump’s Return and It's Regional Impacts
Donald Trump played a significant diplomatic role in helping to end the 2025 border clash between Thailand and Cambodia. He personally called both the acting Prime Minister of Thailand, Phumtham Wechayachai, and Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Manet, urging them to negotiate a ceasefire to stop the escalating conflict. Trump approached his intervention as transactional coercion, leveraging trade threats rather than offering principled diplomacy, warning Thailand and Cambodia that the U.S. would suspend or impose punitive tariffs on goods from both countries if hostilities continued.
Trump publicly announced that, following his calls and ongoing dialogues, the two countries agreed to ceasefire talks and ultimately reached an "immediate and unconditional" ceasefire agreement. Cambodia expressed strong appreciation for Trump's mediation, while Thailand noted a preference for bilateral talks but acknowledged the U.S.'s crucial role in moving the peace process forward.
The broader Indo-Pacific dynamics are also shaping how this conflict might evolve. The return of Donald Trump to the White House in January 2025 has significantly altered U.S. foreign policy posture in the region. Trump’s transactional diplomacy and reduced interest in multilateralism have created a vacuum that others are eager to fill. His administration’s pivot toward economic decoupling from China has revived older security arrangements in the region—Thailand’s U.S.-backed Cobra Gold exercises have resumed with greater intensity, and military aid is reportedly under review for expansion.
At the same time, Cambodia’s deepening defense ties with Beijing—including recent joint drills near the Ream Naval Base—have turned the Thai-Cambodian dispute into a potential proxy flashpoint. While neither Washington nor Beijing appears eager to intervene directly, both are certainly watching closely—each prepared to extend influence should the opportunity arise.
Why the Conflict Matters
What began as a localized land dispute now risks becoming a multi-layered crisis with economic, humanitarian, and strategic implications. Cross-border trade between Surin and Oddar Meanchey has collapsed, tourism is in freefall, and border communities now face abrupt economic ruin and insecurity.
The humanitarian toll is rising fast. More than 60 schools in Thailand’s Sisaket province have been shuttered, and mobile hospitals have been set up to manage civilian casualties. Aid agencies fear a looming refugee spillover, especially as Myanmar’s conflict has already saturated the region’s ability to absorb displaced populations.
Meanwhile, both Thailand and Cambodia are increasing military procurement. Thailand recently signed a deal for Israeli-made Hermes 900 drones, while Cambodia is rumored to be acquiring Chinese radar systems. Left unchecked, this arms buildup could ignite a destabilizing arms race that Southeast Asia is neither prepared for nor capable of surviving diplomatically.
ASEAN at a Crossroads
ASEAN is once again on trial—not for its intentions, but for its capacity to act. It has institutional frameworks and peacebuilding platforms, but its non-interference principle remains a liability in fast-moving crises. ASEAN may offer a diplomatic stage, but without political courage from Bangkok and Phnom Penh, the curtain will fall on regional credibility.
If Thailand and Cambodia prioritize national pride over regional stability, they risk dragging the entire region into a slow-burning security dilemma. Malaysia’s initiative is promising, but unless it gains momentum, it will likely remain a symbolic gesture.
A Path Forward
History offers caution—and a path to resolution. The 2011 clashes were eventually defused through a mix of legal arbitration and behind-the-scenes diplomacy. Even amid nationalist posturing, leaders on both sides knew when to step back. Today, that same balance of pressure and pragmatism must be rediscovered.
The domestic political stakes are high. Thailand’s fragile coalition government, under pressure from ultranationalist voices, has little room to maneuver. Cambodia’s Prime Minister, Hun Manet, still consolidating power after his father’s long rule, is equally wary of appearing weak. Yet, the cost of escalation is far greater than the political risks of compromise.
Modern Needs, Ancient Fault Lines
The border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia are more than a dispute over a temple—they are a test of regional maturity. In an era defined by economic interdependence and geopolitical fluidity, clinging to century-old cartographic grievances is a recipe for instability.
What the region needs is quiet, firm diplomacy, backed not just by ASEAN, but by constructive engagement from neutral actors like Malaysia and broader pressure from global powers to prevent further militarization. Trump's return may embolden defense postures, but it also heightens the urgency for regional solutions free from great-power manipulation.
If both governments fail to rise to this moment, a mere border skirmish could calcify into a strategic fault line that haunts the Indo-Pacific for decades. The temples may be ancient, but the stakes are very much contemporary: peace, stability, and the future of a region that cannot afford another war of pride.
M A Hossain, Dhaka, Bangladesh. Senior Journalist, Covers South Asia and ASEAN region for The News Analytics Herald.
This article published at :
1. The News Analytics Herald, India: September,2025 edition.
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