M A Hossain,
On May 27, 2025, Kuala Lumpur hosted an unprecedented diplomatic event: the inaugural ASEAN-GCC-China Summit. This trilateral gathering, convened under Malaysia’s ASEAN chairmanship, brought together leaders from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), and China. Spearheaded by Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, the summit reflects a bold attempt to carve out a new economic alliance in a world increasingly defined by geopolitical fragmentation and economic protectionism. While its ambitions are lofty—promoting ASEAN centrality, fostering South-South cooperation, and countering the fallout of U.S. tariffs—the summit’s success will hinge on navigating structural challenges, geopolitical ambiguities, and the delicate balance of aligning diverse interests. This moment, though nascent, signals a pragmatic pivot for the Global South, one that deserves scrutiny for its potential and its pitfalls.
A New Alliance:
The summit’s backdrop is a global economic order under strain. The reimposition of steep U.S. tariffs under President Donald Trump’s second term—ranging from 10% to 49% on Southeast Asian exports—has jolted ASEAN economies, which rely heavily on the U.S. as a key market. A 90-day pause on these tariffs, announced in April 2025, has given ASEAN a fleeting window to recalibrate. Meanwhile, the U.S.’s declining influence in the Global South, coupled with its polarizing Middle East policies, has created fertile ground for alternative alignments.
Anwar’s initiative seizes this moment, positioning ASEAN as a proactive player in a multipolar world. As he declared at the 46th ASEAN Summit, which coincided with the trilateral gathering, “a transition in the geopolitical order is underway, and the global trading system is under further strain.” His call for an ASEAN-U.S. summit to address tariffs underscores the urgency, but the ASEAN-GCC-China framework signals a broader strategy: diversifying economic partnerships to reduce reliance on any single power.
The economic rationale for this trilateral summit is compelling. Together, ASEAN, the GCC, and China represent a combined GDP of $23.7 trillion (22.3% of global GDP in 2023) and a market of 2.15 billion people. ASEAN-China trade reached $700 billion in 2023, while ASEAN-GCC trade hit $130.7 billion, largely in energy and financial services. GCC-China trade, valued at $316.4 billion in 2022, reflects deepening ties. Foreign direct investment (FDI) flows further illustrate the potential: Chinese FDI into ASEAN was $17.7 billion in 2023, while GCC FDI into ASEAN grew from $265.8 million in 2018 to $390.2 million in 2023.
These figures suggest a robust foundation for collaboration in areas like clean energy, digital economies, electric vehicles, halal products, and infrastructure. Yet, numbers alone do not guarantee success. The summit’s promise lies in harnessing these strengths into structured, actionable frameworks—no small feat given the regulatory and structural differences among the three parties.
Reinforcing ASEAN Centrality :
The summit’s first aim is to reinforce ASEAN centrality, a cornerstone of the bloc’s identity. The ASEAN Community Vision 2045 envisions an outward-looking ASEAN, integrated into the global economy through partnerships with emerging powers. By bringing the GCC and China into a trilateral dialogue, Malaysia seeks to amplify ASEAN’s voice in a world where multilateral arrangements are proliferating. This is not merely diplomatic posturing. ASEAN’s collective GDP of $3.8 trillion and its strategic location make it a vital hub for global trade and supply chains.
However, the bloc’s ability to project unity is tested by internal divisions—Myanmar’s ongoing crisis, South China Sea disputes, and varying economic priorities among its ten members. The Kuala Lumpur Declaration on ASEAN 2045, signed during the summit, emphasizes deeper economic integration, harmonized trade standards, and sustainable policies to position ASEAN as the world’s fourth-largest economy by 2045.
The second rationale—forging a South-South economic alliance—is equally ambitious. The GCC, with its energy wealth and growing interest in diversifying beyond oil, sees ASEAN and China as partners in meeting surging energy demand and expanding into sectors like finance and technology. China, for its part, views the summit as aligning with its broader Global South agenda, though its cautious stance—yet to confirm high-level representation or specific deliverables—suggests a wait-and-see approach. Existing frameworks like the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) offer potential models for trilateral cooperation, particularly in areas like e-commerce and investment facilitation.
However, the GCC’s lack of a supranational structure, unlike the EU or even ASEAN’s charter-based system, complicates matters. Internal rivalries, such as the Saudi-UAE competition and lingering tensions from the 2017 Qatar Crisis, underscore the GCC’s fragility as a cohesive bloc. ASEAN must tread carefully to avoid being drawn into these fault lines.
Tariff Turbulence:
The third goal—countering U.S. tariffs and export restrictions—carries both opportunity and risk. ASEAN leaders, as Anwar emphasized, reached a consensus that bilateral trade deals with the U.S. must not harm fellow members. This collective stance aims to protect ASEAN’s $3.8 trillion market and 660 million people from being pitted against each other in a tariff war. The GCC and China offer alternative markets and technological access, potentially offsetting U.S. restrictions. China’s Premier Li Qiang, speaking at the summit, urged the removal of trade barriers and the strengthening of a WTO-centered multilateral order—a not-so-subtle jab at U.S. unilateralism.
Yet, ASEAN’s vulnerability to U.S.-China geopolitical tensions remains a concern. As a middle power, ASEAN seeks to leverage the GCC and China as counterweights, but it risks entanglement in great-power rivalries. The summit’s ability to deliver new markets or technological partnerships will depend on concrete agreements, not just aspirational rhetoric.
Geopolitical Tightrope:
Geopolitically, the summit sends mixed signals. For ASEAN, China’s inclusion enhances the platform’s economic and diplomatic weight but complicates its neutrality. The South China Sea disputes, involving several ASEAN members and China, loom large, and the summit’s agenda carefully avoids such flashpoints. The GCC, meanwhile, is navigating its own balancing act. Despite close ties with the West, the GCC has selectively deepened economic relations with China, reflecting a pragmatic shift toward Eastern partners.
However, its internal divisions and differing stances on issues like the Gaza conflict limit its ability to act as a unified bloc. China’s measured engagement suggests it sees the summit as a test case rather than a full commitment, aligning with its broader strategy of fostering Global South coalitions without overextending itself.
Opportunity to Outcome:
The summit’s functional potential—in areas like renewable energy, digital economies, and halal markets—is undeniable. Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia have thriving bilateral ties with GCC states in energy, infrastructure, and finance, but ASEAN-GCC cooperation as regional blocs remains underdeveloped. The first ASEAN-GCC summit in 2023 marked progress, with agreements for biennial meetings, but institutional follow-through is critical. Translating opportunities into outcomes will require clear frameworks, regular dialogue, and alignment of priorities—none of which are guaranteed given the parties’ diverse systems and interests.
Skeptics might argue the summit is a one-off, a diplomatic flourish unlikely to evolve into a regular fixture. Its success depends on ASEAN’s ability to integrate this trilateral format into its broader agenda without undermining existing frameworks like the ASEAN+3 or the East Asia Summit. Malaysia’s chairmanship, with its emphasis on inclusivity and resilience, provides a strong foundation, but ASEAN’s track record on Myanmar and maritime disputes raises doubts about its efficacy. As Anwar noted, ASEAN’s “peace, stability, and prosperity” depends on an open, rules-based order—a principle now challenged by protectionism and unilateralism.
A Cautious Leap:
Ultimately, the ASEAN-GCC-China Summit is not a geopolitical pivot but a pragmatic experiment in economic resilience. It reflects the Global South’s growing agency in a world where traditional powers are retreating into protectionism or disarray. If managed with precision, this platform could bridge Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and China, unlocking economic synergies and amplifying ASEAN’s global role. But it must overcome structural hurdles, geopolitical sensitivities, and the risk of overpromising. For now, the summit stands as a bold signal of intent—one that merits cautious optimism and rigorous scrutiny.
M A Hossain, Dhaka, Bangladesh. Senior Journalist, Covers South Asia and ASEAN region for The News Analytics Journal.
This article published at :
1. The News Analytics Herald, India : 07 July,25
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